• Do Government Deficits Elect Harris or Help Trump with Poorer Voters?

  • Oct 11 2024
  • Length: 54 mins
  • Podcast

Do Government Deficits Elect Harris or Help Trump with Poorer Voters?

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  • Summary

  • Do Government Deficits Elect Harris? Or Has Trump Gained with Poorer Voters Who Benefited From The Biden Spending Spree?

    Hy & Christopher welcome Graham McFarlane, an economic forecaster with a Harvard MBA, who has a particular theory on who is going to win the presidential election. Despite his personal sympathies, he thinks that the level of government spending has widened to encompass almost 50% of the population, and he believes that gives Harris an advantage.

    Interestingly, Christopher disagrees based on the data. Not only are Trump and Harris tied in the swing states, but the rise in Trump’s support has come from poor, formally Democratic Caucasian-majority working class counties—which have been net beneficiaries of increased government spending over the last two decades. And for the first time, early voting requests from those counties—and voter registration gains within them—have benefited the Republicans.

    Christopher notes the example last week of Pennsylvania where for the first time in just over four years (10 statewide elections) that Republicans out-requested Democrats in mail absentees ballots. By midweek, there were 8,299 Republicans requesting mail-in ballots versus 8,079 Democrats. More importantly, many if those mail-in ballot requests came from some of the Keystone State’s most disadvantaged counties. Moreover, while Pennsylvania Democrats still enjoy a voter registration advantage, it has shrunk from 1.2 million in 2008 to just 325,000 today, a rightward shift that has occurred even as government spending has been boosted in some of the same former Democratic counties. That may indicate that Trump is not viewed as a threat to the government largess by these key constituencies.

    Wit large, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are virtually deadlocked in the major swing states that will play a deciding role in the election, according to new polling from The Hill and Emerson College Polling. Trump narrowly leads Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent, in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania; while in Arizona he leads 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump’s leads over Harris in these states are within the plus-or-minus three-point margin of error. The two candidates are deadlocked at 49 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, while in Nevada Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error in Michigan is plus or minus 3.1 points and plus or minus three points in Wisconsin. In Nevada, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points.

    Interestingly, Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina since the last Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted three weeks ago, but gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump, on the other hand, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina but lost a point in Georgia and Nevada. Harris’s support remained unchanged in Michigan and Nevada while Trump’s remained unchanged in Arizona and Wisconsin.

    McFarlane, Hy, and Christopher go on to talk about the dangerous impact of deficit financing, and how both parties have embraced massive deficits, yet Hy believes that Trump is trying to turn the ship. Christopher remains skeptical.

    We also talk about the impending visit of international opera star Raehann Bryce-Davis on October 22 to the Garden District for a sunset concert. It’s a singular opportunity to meet an award winning star. Tickets are available here.
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