China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y.

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A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppers
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/

CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.html

Bloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costs

CNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.html

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Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too.

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CNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.html

Franklin-Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycle

Deloitte Industry Outlook
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.html

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The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps.

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FRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html

Bloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-says

Bloomberg Ally’s Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-management

Federal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Q
https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htm

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Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance.

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The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years.

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Reuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/

Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Much
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-bets

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After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April).

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ZEW November 2024
https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-expectations-after-trump-victory

Bloomberg German Investor Confidence Slumps on Political Strife, Trump Win
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-on-political-strife-trump-win

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