A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
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Narrated by:
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Charles Armstrong
About this listen
Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace (1749-1827) is often described as the ‘French Newton’, though he lived a century later. His working life took him through the French Revolution, the Napoleonic era – during which he enjoyed various political positions – and afterwards, to the Bourbon Restoration. But his overriding importance was his contribution to science, with a remarkable range of interest and expertise including engineering, mathematics, statistics, physics, astronomy and philosophy. One of his most enduring works is recorded here – A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (1825). As he explains in his opening introduction: 'This philosophical essay is the development of a lecture on probabilities which I delivered in 1795 to the normal schools whither I had been called, by a decree of the national convention, as professor of mathematics with Lagrange. I have recently published upon the same subject a work entitled The Analytical Theory of Probabilities. I present here without the aid of analysis the principles and general results of this theory, applying them to the most important questions of life, which are indeed for the most part only problems of probability'.
The Essay comprises 18 chapters, including ‘General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities’, ‘Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to the Moral Sciences’ and ‘Concerning Tables of Mortality and the Mean Durations of Life, Marriage and Some Associations’. He considers the ratio of the birth of boys to girls, he looks at probabilities behind risk when applied to the (increasingly widespread acceptance of) smallpox inoculation discovered by Edward Jenner, he discusses probabilities in games of chance, the reliability of witnesses in jury trials and the fluctuations of tides. He even applies it to the range of feeling in animals analogous to humans.
The Essay is clear and generally accessible, but also surprising in that the personality of Laplace himself shines through – a brilliant polymath and mathematician who nevertheless lived fully engaged in the everyday world. Translated by Frederick Wilson Truscott and Frederick Lincoln Emory.
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First published in 1859, John Stuart Mill's On Liberty is an exhaustive exploration of social and civic liberty, its limits, and its consequences. Mill's work is a classic of political liberalism that contains a rational justification of the freedom of the individual in opposition to the claims of the state.
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should be read by liberals and conservatives
- By Jim Hennessy on 09-13-18
By: John Stuart Mill
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To Explain the World
- The Discovery of Modern Science
- By: Steven Weinberg
- Narrated by: Tom Perkins
- Length: 10 hrs and 43 mins
- Unabridged
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In this rich, irreverent, and compelling history, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Weinberg takes us across centuries, from ancient Miletus to medieval Baghdad and Oxford, from Plato's Academy and the Museum of Alexandria to the cathedral school of Chartres and the Royal Society of London. He shows that the scientists of ancient and medieval times not only did not understand what we understand about the world--they did not understand what there is to understand or how to understand it.
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How the world created a Newton
- By Gary on 03-02-15
By: Steven Weinberg
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Aquinas
- An Audio Guide
- By: Edward Feser
- Narrated by: Adrian Mulraney
- Length: 7 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
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One of the most influential philosophers and theologians in the history of Western thought, St Thomas Aquinas established the foundations for much of modern philosophy of religion, and is famous for his arguments for the existence of God. In this cogent and multifaceted introduction to the great saint's work, Edward Feser argues that you cannot fully understand Aquinas' philosophy without his theology, and vice-versa. He covers Aquinas' thoughts on the soul, natural law, metaphysics, and more.
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Excellent book marred by faulty pronunciation
- By Charles on 09-13-15
By: Edward Feser
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The Invention of Science
- A New History of the Scientific Revolution
- By: David Wootton
- Narrated by: James Langton
- Length: 22 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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In this fascinating history spanning continents and centuries, historian David Wootton offers a lively defense of science, revealing why the Scientific Revolution was truly the greatest event in our history. The Invention of Science goes back 500 years in time to chronicle this crucial transformation, exploring the factors that led to its birth and the people who made it happen. Wootton argues that the Scientific Revolution was actually five separate yet concurrent events that developed independently.
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A Good Read Spoiled
- By David A. Donnelly on 12-23-16
By: David Wootton
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The Devil's Delusion
- Atheism and its Scientific Pretensions
- By: David Berlinski
- Narrated by: Dennis Holland
- Length: 6 hrs and 7 mins
- Unabridged
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Militant atheism is on the rise. In recent years, Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris, Daniel Dennett, and Christopher Hitchens have produced a steady stream of best-selling books denigrating religious belief. These authors are merely the leading edge of a larger movement that includes much of the scientific community. In response, mathematician David Berlinski, himself a secular Jew, delivers a biting defense of religious thought.
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Riddled With Problems
- By Ben on 11-01-13
By: David Berlinski
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The Golden Ratio
- The Story of Phi, the World's Most Astonishing Number
- By: Mario Livio
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 10 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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Throughout history, thinkers from mathematicians to theologians have pondered the mysterious relationship between numbers and the nature of reality. In this fascinating book, Mario Livio tells the tale of a number at the heart of that mystery: phi, or 1.6180339887.... This curious mathematical relationship, widely known as "The Golden Ratio", was discovered by Euclid more than 2,000 years ago. Since then it has shown a propensity to appear in the most astonishing variety of places.
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Tedious Listen
- By Amanda Halsdorff on 10-25-14
By: Mario Livio
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A Brief History of Infinity: The Quest to Think the Unthinkable
- Brief Histories
- By: Brian Clegg
- Narrated by: Gordon Griffin
- Length: 9 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
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Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space.' Douglas Adams, Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy.We human beings have trouble with infinity - yet infinity is a surprisingly human subject. Philosophers and mathematicians have gone mad contemplating its nature and complexity - yet it is a concept routinely used by schoolchildren. Exploring the infinite is a
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Really not great in Audio, not great otherwise
- By Michael on 03-29-13
By: Brian Clegg
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The Kybalion
- A Study of Hermetic Philosophy of Ancient Egypt and Greece
- By: The Three Intiates
- Narrated by: Mitch Horowitz
- Length: 4 hrs and 6 mins
- Unabridged
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He was the father of the occult, the founder of astrology, the discoverer of alchemy. He was Hermes Trismegistus, and as the scribe of the gods of ancient Egypt, he possessed all divine knowledge... which he passed on to humanity, though only those who have been tutored in its wonders can fully understand it.In this extraordinary 1912 book, three secret initiates to his teachings - who remain anonymous to this day - share their insight with all who seek to understand the mysterious underpinnings of the universe and our relationship with it.
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Big bites of ancient (now age?) wisdom to chew on
- By Diana on 07-24-14
What listeners say about A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Captain
- 11-14-22
Deep, Mathematical and Dry
This book was anticipated to contain more philosophy and less mathematical procedure. The opposite was the case.
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- R Durero
- 08-09-24
Pure science
The as for the mathematics, very hard to follow in audio format at least to me. But the true philosophical passages are enlightening. Interesting that the knowledge displayed seems to be ahead of its time.
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- BARRY
- 10-17-24
Painful to listen to. Like watching paint dry.
Painful to listen to. Like watching paint dry. Painful to listen to. Like watching paint dry.
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