What? So What? Now What?
Uncertainty, Transformation, and Upheaval
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What? So What? Now What?
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Virtual Voice
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Narrated by:
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Virtual Voice
This title uses virtual voice narration
Virtual voice is computer-generated narration for audiobooks.
About this listen
The world is uncertain, and all decisions are made in an uncertain environment with unpredictable outcomes. This challenge transcends disciplines, industries, and professions. An increasingly complex modern world shaped by artificial intelligence, geopolitical instability, data overload, and rapidly evolving technology can overwhelm decision-makers who rely on outdated ways of thinking.
Uncertainty is unavoidable. It is not the enemy. It can be navigated with structure and discipline. Critical thinking, multiple perspectives, and decision tools help prioritize, forecast, and adapt decisions, but cannot dictate outcomes. “Decision Intelligence” is vital because it combines data, models, and human judgment, all augmented with new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. Better decisions come from clarity, not certainty. This is the foundation of resilience, agility, and better decision-making during volatile, unpredictable, and transformative environments.
Since uncertainty permeates all decisions, acknowledging this and understanding how to manage uncertainty is crucial. Context, influential factors, nontraditional thinking, and problem definition are core to all decision-making in an uncertain environment. Structured thinking, decision intelligence, and a helpful framework enable a more functional understanding of the context within which a decision will be made, avoid biases and other pitfalls, and result in more effective choices.
This book discusses a variety of uncertain circumstances we are all increasingly confronting daily, including healthcare management, weather prediction, capital allocation, critical business decisions, and even self-driving cars - circumstances that require decision-making with imperfect and incomplete information.
The book provides a more comprehensive analysis and application of the tools described to address with greater detail and substance the most transformative and uncertain developments today: geopolitical upheaval, the impact of artificial intelligence, and other components of transformation, disruption, and uncertainty that require more critical and thorough thinking. Such impactful disruptions must be approached thoroughly, systematically, and with plausible scenarios.
This book applies context and common sense to structured thinking and planning. I aim for readers to develop a deeper understanding of uncertainty, not just as a theoretical concept, but as a practical challenge in every real-world decision. An appreciation of structured thinking: frameworks like the Decision Canvas, scenario planning, and pre/post-mortem analysis are mental scaffolding that improves clarity and reduces bias.
Familiarity with decision-making tools and technologies: reinforcement learning, optimization, probabilistic reasoning, and decision intelligence systems.Awareness of common decision traps, such as cognitive biases, confirmation bias, overconfidence, and sunk cost fallacies, and strategies to overcome them.Strategies for building decision systems: embedding decision quality into your team, culture, and organization’s processes.
It’s not simply a matter of having a formula. Uncertain circumstances are not simple mathematical problems but require systematic and structured thinking. Understanding these structures and the motivations behind the various approaches will be essential. This approach is more of a way to think about thinking.
As Einstein said, “Give me 60 minutes to solve a problem, and I will spend 55 minutes defining it. Then the solution will be obvious.”
This book is about those 55 minutes.
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