(see Wikipedia: The Purpose Of A System Is What It Does)

Consider the following claims

• The purpose of a cancer hospital is to cure two-thirds of cancer patients.
• The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia.
• The purpose of the British government is to propose a controversial new sentencing policy, stand firm in the face of protests for a while, then cave in after slightly larger protests and agree not to pass the policy after all.
• The purpose of the New York bus system is to emit four billion tons of carbon dioxide.

These are obviously false.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-obviously-the-purpose-of

Here’s a list of things I updated on after working on the scenario.

Some of these are discussed in more detail in the supplements, including the compute forecast, timelines forecast, takeoff forecast, AI goals forecast, and security forecast. I’m highlighting these because it seems like a lot of people missed their existence, and they’re what transforms the scenario from cool story to research-backed debate contribution.

These are my opinions only, and not necessarily endorsed by the rest of the team.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-takeaways-from-ai-2027

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.

We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.1 It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.

https://ai-2027.com/

(A condensed two-hour version with footnotes and text boxes removed is available at the above link.)