In this episode Ed covers China's reopening and how that could effect inflation in the West. More problems & challenges at Tesla. The show goes on a deeper dive into sub prime auto (potential problems there), real estate markets cooling (including gated private funds), problems with crypto funding networks, and introduces a new short thesis for a company caught in the mess of cryptocurrency & KYC/AML legality. 

Sources

https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2023/01/11/veritas-in-default-on-450m-commercial-loan/#:~:text=Veritas%20Investments%20is%20in%20default,it%20matured%20on%20Nov.%2015.

https://therealdeal.com/2023/01/16/chetrit-making-progress-on-pesky-481m-loan/

https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/17/tesla-engineer-testifies-that-2016-video-promoting-self-driving-was-faked/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEWpyNhF0yU2iiSm2WKjCpQ87-0uk4r_sJWWuvtGHsKWR5yBGjaPAQJz-RYxoAnSXz1zMUh2BIprCvz0U8CVoBKwI2J6Cy-aGvunUH2oOQ_-kw1dwXkJ5QoHkF6aG11_e0AXpMQYoUN2DiR2sMJwspNx9C-5WZEQHENmQiQFZIQr

In this episode Ed covers thoughts about investing & trading from 2022, accepting opposition view points, short-selling psychology/risk management, and overall market/economic thoughts. 

Ed closes the year with thoughts on where we are in the economic cycle, lessons learned & thoughts about portfolio management, and recent justice served as the fraud cycle begins to expose bad actors.

This episode covers macroeconomic conditions, quant-based investors (Ed Thorp, Jim Simons, & Renaissance Technologies), and recession indicators (yields). The new technological cold war between the West & East (inspired by thoughts from Dr. Pippa Malmgren) is discussed along with recent crypto assassinations. 

Ed goes on a fiery rant over FTX and calls for legal action. The show ends with an overview of portfolio positioning, tail hedging strategies, and overall market navigation. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/ covid-money-trail-investigation-explained/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f001

https://trust.zscaler.com/zscloud.net/posts/12256

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10380825/Sir-Tony-Radakin-warns-Russia-attempts-sever-communication-cables-seen-act-war.html

This episode covers the story of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and the numerous bad actors surrounding the FTX exchange leading to its collapse. The episode goes on to discuss recent job layoffs, the latest 13F cycle, and a noticeable slowdown in housing markets. Ed recommends taking digital assets out of all crypto exchanges ASAP.

https://www.businessinsider.com/people-worried-about-airbnb-bust-short-term-rentals-2022-11

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-teachers-pension-plan-faces-a-hit-on-investment-in-crypto/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqzsPz0-u0U - Marc Cohodes on HedgeEye

Ed revisits themes from previous episodes (and books) that include energy security challenges warned of in Meredith Angwin's "Shorting the Grid", comments from Stanely Druckenmiller on interest rates and inflation, and questionable business operations in commodity trading that speak to Javier Blass' "The World For Sale."

The episode goes on to cover developments in US housing markets, European industrial production (stagflation), a fraud warning from the SEC, and expensive diesel futures in the US that could be a harbinger of shortages. 

At the end of the episode Ed visits an interesting new short idea taken from an anonymous prior fund manager.

layoffs.fyi

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/stripe-plans-to-lay-off-14percent-of-workers.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-accountant-warns-of-heightened-fraud-risk-amid-recession-fears-market-selloff-11667427464

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-239-000-jobs-in-october-annual-pay-was-up-7-7-301666097.html#:~:text=2%2C%202022%20%2FPRNewswire%2F%20%2D%2D,(%22Stanford%20Lab%22).

https://www.ft.com/content/ebcea340-6773-401b-85bd-2cd37bb09fb9

In this episode Ed covers global bond market volatility and why it's creating challenges (measured through the MOVE index) for governments around the world. Ed takes a look at historical asset performance in stagflationary environments, recent comments from Goldman Sachs and other analysts on energy markets, jobs cuts across major companies, and a disappointing earnings quarter from Facebook. 

A new book from Dr. Suhas Kshirsagar - Change Your Schedule Change Your Life

Music Mood - Pink Floyd / Fleetwood Mac / Indie Rock

Ideas & Research from

Economic Analysis, Homer & Sylla. A History of Interest Rates

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=MOVE:PSE

https://hiddenrockcapital.substack.com/

https://concoda.substack.com/

Ed covers recent volume changes in ODTE option volume and carnage in government bonds (UK Gilts down 52% in > 1YR). The episode goes on to cover Harley Bassman's MOVE index and what it could be saying about credit markets.  New sanctions from the Biden Administration on semiconductors & China. Woes of the 60/40 portfolio, work strikes in Europe, and destressed debt loads in Americas.