The Congressional Budget Office just dropped a bombshell: Trump's tariff policies could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. Sounds great for fiscal hawks, right? Wrong. Steve Ellis and Josh Sewell break down why this "deficit reduction" is actually a massive tax increase on American families disguised as trade policy. From 25% tariffs on cars to inflation hitting working families hardest, discover why the CBO's projections are both critically important and complete fiction. Plus: Why a $9.4 billion rescission package feels like arguing over the bar tab while your house is on fire.

In this episode of Budget Watchdog All Federal, host Steve Ellis sits down with TCS Policy Analyst Gabe Murphy to discuss their comprehensive new report, "Base Instincts: A Case for Base Realignment and Closures at Home and Abroad."

Nearly 20 years have passed since the last Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) round in 2005, yet the Pentagon continues to operate with significant excess infrastructure capacity. Murphy reveals striking findings from recent Pentagon reports showing 19-22% excess capacity across military installations, while also uncovering troubling inconsistencies in how this excess is being reported and measured.

The conversation explores why BRAC - a unique congressional process that packages base closure recommendations into an up-or-down vote - has been such an effective tool for eliminating wasteful spending, saving taxpayers an estimated $13.8 billion annually from previous rounds. Murphy breaks down what went wrong with the costly 2005 round, including problematic "joint basing" initiatives and contractor-driven cost overruns that have made lawmakers hesitant to authorize new closures.

Challenging common assumptions about the economic impact of base closures, the hosts examine data showing that affected communities often see unemployment drop and income rise in the decade following closures, when proper redevelopment planning occurs. The episode also addresses the Pentagon's overseas footprint of 750 bases in 80 countries, costing $55 billion annually.

With deferred maintenance backlogs reaching $137 billion and ongoing fiscal pressures, Ellis and Murphy make the case that a new BRAC round could save an additional $2.7 billion per year while enhancing both fiscal responsibility and national security.

In this episode of Budget Watchdog All Federal, host Steve Ellis and Director of Research Josh Sewell break down President Trump's massive reconciliation package that passed the House by the razor-thin margin of 215-214. The "one big beautiful bill" extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, exempts tips and overtime from taxes, raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, and makes significant cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP. While the Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill adds $3.3 trillion to the deficit, the real cost could reach $5.2 trillion when accounting for budget gimmicks.