Dr. Elizabeth Economy interviews Professor David Shambaugh about his new book Breaking the Engagement: How China Won & Lost America, which examines the collapse of America's four-decade engagement strategy with China. Shambaugh argues that China initially "won over" American constituencies during the reform era, but starting around 2010, these groups faced increasing obstacles in China, leading to the breakdown of the "engagement coalition." The conversation explores the five schools of thought dominating current US-China policy debates and Shambaugh's assertion that the relationship has shifted to "indefinite, comprehensive, competitive rivalry." Drawing on his experience as both a leading China scholar and a former government official who witnessed key moments like normalization in 1979, Shambaugh offers insights into whether this dynamic can be managed to prevent further escalation.

Recorded on July 9, 2025.

ABOUT THE SERIES

China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

Hoover Fellows Dr. Elizabeth Economy and Dr. Amy Zegart discuss the "DeepSeek moment"— when China's DeepSeek AI model surprised U.S. markets by replicating OpenAI's performance using fewer resources and an open-source approach. The two explore the strategic implications of open versus closed AI models, with there being an argument that the U.S. should embrace more open research approaches rather than closed models. They highlight how China is successfully replicating America's historical innovation model—investing heavily in long-term basic science—while the U.S. has reduced federal R&D spending. The two scholars conclude with policy recommendations, including fixing K-12 math education, creating a national computer infrastructure for universities, and strengthening partnerships with allies while emphasizing the importance of including academia in what should be "public-private-academic partnerships."

Recorded on July 2, 2025.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and the Director of the Technology Policy Accelerator (TPA) at the Hoover Institution. She is also a Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford University, and a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Institute and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. The author of five books, she specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies and national security, grand strategy, and global political risk management.

Zegart's award-winning research includes the leading academic study of intelligence failures before 9/11: Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11. Her most recent book is the bestseller Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence (Princeton, 2022), which was nominated by Princeton University Press for the Pulitzer Prize. Her op-eds and essays have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Politico, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US Secretary of Commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on US-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.

ABOUT THE SERIES

China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

Dr. Elizabeth Economy and Ely Ratner sit down to discuss challenging security environment in the Indo-Pacific region, the specific goals and ambitions of China in the Western Pacific and East Asia, their experiences in the Biden Administration and the state of the alliance system in the region, based off his recent Foreign Affairs Piece, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact”. The two scholars touch on continuity between both the Biden and Trump administrations’ strategy in the Indo-Pacific, but also increasing intra-Asian cooperation and awareness between nations as the China threat grows. They conclude with a conversation about what a Pacific Defense Pact would look like, including the importance of long-term credible deterrence, how other partners could be brought in, and aligning objectives to help create a viable collective defense.

Recorded on June 11, 2025.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Ely Ratner is Principal at the Marathon Initiative. From 2021 to 2025, he served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs in the Biden administration. From 2015 to 2017, he was Deputy National Security Adviser to then-Vice President Joe Biden. He previously served in the State Department’s office of Chinese and Mongolian affairs and as a staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He previously held the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellowship for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and was Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security.

Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US Secretary of Commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on US-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.

ABOUT THE SERIES

China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.