Colombia is a country that has been racked by conflict for around 60 years - multiple armed groups and organized crime have waged war against each other and the state.

In 2016, after nearly seven years of negotiations, the FARC demobilized, creating a power vacuum that other groups, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), Clan del Golfo, and FARC dissidents, quickly filled. Despite the FARC's exit, violence persisted, with cocaine production and illegal mining continuing unabated, leaving many communities under the control of criminal organizations.

In 2022, the President of Colombia Gustavo Petro brought forward new legislation, known as 'Total Peace'. This ambitious and wide ranging policy looks to negotiate with all criminal groups, whether they are politically minded, like the FARC were or organized crime. Why? To help reduce violence, in particularly homicides, but also to try a new approach to end these long-running conflicts.

One of the key players in these negotiations was the ELN, the oldest guerrilla group in the world. The Petro administration expressed optimism, claiming a peace agreement could be reached within three months of taking office. However, over two years later, those talks have stalled and ultimately collapsed, raising questions about the future of peace efforts in Colombia.

Speaker(s):

Juanita Durán-Vélez, Lawyer, Crime and Justice Lab, Colombia.

Kyle Johnson, Researcher & Academic Director of the Conflict Responses Foundation, Bogotá, Colombia

Felipe Botero Escobar, Head of Andean Regional Office, Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Links:

Andean Regional Office, Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Podcast & Article - Clan del Golfo: The fall of 'Otoniel': How Colombia's biggest drug lord was taken down.

The base research (Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia´s Total Peace Policy) for this episode was initially developed and supported by Serious Organized Crime and Anticorruption Evidence research program.

Additional...

In May 2024, a prison van was attacked at a highway toll in Normandy, France. In dramatic footage shared on social media, a black SUV, driving the wrong direction, rammed into the prison van just as it went through the barriers. Then gunmen, dressed head-to-toe in black and armed with Kalashnikov rifles got out and started shooting at the van, killing two prison officers.

They opened the van and freed the prisoner, a man named Mohamed Amra, aka "The Fly", who escaped with the gunmen. There is now an Interpol Red Notice out for Amra.

The attack took place in broad daylight and sheds light on the dramatic increase in gang violence over the last few years in France. Mohamed Amra had connections to the city that has been at the forefront of this violence, Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast.

Speaker(s):

Iris Oustinoff Leroux, YPN Coordinator and Analyst, Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Links:

(GI article) France in the crossfire: Prisoner escapes in Normandy amid rise in organized crime

(GI Paper) Smoke on the horizon: Trends in arms trafficking from the conflict in Ukraine

(GI Article) The Western Balkans is still the criminals’ choice for weapons.

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Global Organized Crime Index

Senate Report FAIT au nom de la commission d’enquête (1) sur l’impact du narcotrafic en France et les mesures à prendre pour y remédier,

Additional...

On the 1st May 2024, 711 migrants successfully crossed the Channel between France and the UK in small boats. This year is so far on track to see the highest number of crossings on record.

This highly industrialised illicit industry estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of Euros, has seen the coast of northern France demarcated between competing gangs from a specific region of the Middle East, and who have a long history of smuggling.

They control the entire length of the route, from beginning to end - targeting prospective migrants through social media, offering package deals, and advice on how to speak to authorities on arrival. Some migrants even use their own knowledge of the trip to become smugglers themselves.

In this episode we take a look at the criminal groups behind the small boat crossings; how organised the logistics are; how much money they make and where it goes; and finally what this could mean for the future of other illicit economies in Western Europe.

Speaker(s):

Tuesday Reitano, Deputy Director of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, author of the book Migrant, Refugee, Smuggler, Saviour. Author of the report Small Boats, Big Business: The Industrialization of Cross-Channel Migrant Smuggling.

Julien Goudichaud, documentary filmmaker who has been reporting on people smugglers who operate in Calais.

Afshin Ismaeli, a journalist and war photographer from Norway.

Links:

(GI Paper) Small Boats, Big Business: The Industrialization of Cross-Channel Migrant Smuggling - available in English & French

(Book) Migrant, Refugee, Smuggler, Saviour

(GI Paper) The Human Conveyor Belt: Trends in human trafficking and smuggling in post-revolution Libya

(GI Analysis) An increasing number of Albanians are crossing the English Channel from France using small boats

(GI Analysis) Western Balkan criminal groups are important players in the Netherlands

Additional...

LockBit, the world's largest ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) provider suffered a very public takedown by an international law enforcement task force, Operation Cronos.

The ransomware behemoth quickly relaunched just days later. But in a world where trust is key, might the reputational damage be too great?

This is the story of the rise of LockBit, its relationship with other infamous cybercriminal groups, its uneasy relationship with some affiliates, its curious leader LockBitsupp, the public takedown and the relaunch, and what this means for the future of ransomware-as-a-service.

Speaker(s):

Koryak Uzan, Co-founder & Managing Director of PRODAFT

Links:

GITOC - The Rise and Fall of the Conti ransomware group

PRODAFT - LockBit: Behind the Lines of the Notorious RaaS

PRODAFT - The Demise of LOCKBIT: Disrupting the Most Prominent Ransomware Gang by Utilizing Upstream Threat...

Russian organized crime has a mythology attached to it - the brutal tattooed men of the Vory v Zakone. But those days are long in the past, rapid globalisation saw a new type of organized criminal take the reins in the Russian underworld, spreading their influence as criminal facilitators across the world.

But the war in Ukraine has changed that. It's changed the relationship between organized crime and the Russian state, the status quo within the established criminal order, the potential vacuum left by those criminals who fight and die in the conflict, the establishment of Russian criminal groups outside of the country, the flows of illicit goods themselves have evolved, and then Ukraine, once so critical to those illicit flows, is currently lost.

Such is the uncertainty surrounding organized crime that there have been rumblings about a possible return to a dark period in Russian history, known as the 'Wild 90s' - a period of anarchy that is etched into the Russian psyche.

Speaker(s):

Mark Galeotti, the Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, honorary professor at University College London, member of the GI Network. Author of ‘The Vory: Russia’s Super Mafia' and the GI-TOC paper: Time of Troubles: The Russian underworld since the Ukraine invasion

Links:

(GI Paper) Rebellion as racket: Crime and the Donbas conflict 2014-2022

(GI Paper) Evolving drug trends in wartime Ukraine

(GI Analysis) The devil’s not-so-new psychoactive substance: Alpha-PVP, a highly addictive synthetic drug, is experiencing growing demand in Ukraine.

(GI Paper) Crossroads: Kazakhstan's changing illicit drug economy

(GI Paper) Port in a storm: Organized crime in Odesa since the Russian invasion

(Podcast) “Death Can Wait”: Drugs on the Frontline in Ukraine

Research Links:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/23/russian-artist-fined-for-extremist-toy-doll-with-prison-tattoos-a82852

https://tass.ru/obschestvo/9218777

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/17/russia-outlaws-childrens-criminal-underground-movement-a71178

At the start of the year masked gunman burst into a television studio in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The cameras were live and the entire event was broadcast. The video shows gang members shouting at staff, pushing them to the ground, threatening them with guns and explosives. These pictures subsequently travelled around the world.

But this event was just one in a series to hit Ecuador in a short space of time. Car bombs, kidnappings, murder, prison riots, prominent prisoner escapes, and another national state of emergency.

Criminal violence has washed over the country as competing gangs like Los Choneros and Los Lobos battle in prisons and on the streets over control of the lucrative cocaine trafficking business. Foreign organized criminal actors like the Mexican Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels, the Albanian Mafia, FARC dissident groups from Colombia, and others, are all active in Ecuador, a country described as a "cocaine superhighway".

In the space of just five or so years, Ecuador has gone from one of the safest countries in Latin America to a country with one of the highest murder rates. In this episode we are going to talk about how this happened.

Speaker(s):

Felipe Botero Escobar, the Head of Andean Programmes at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

GI-TOC:

(Paper) Organized crime declares war: The road to chaos in Ecuador

(Blog) Fernando Villavicencio - Assassination Witness Project

The Global Organized Crime Index - Ecuador Country Profile

(Paper) Transnational Tentacles: Global Hotspots of Balkan Organized Crime

(Podcast episode) The Index - Ecuador

(Paper) The cocaine pipeline to Europe

Additional...

'The King is dead, long live the King!'

In September 2023, Ovidio Guzmán López, the son of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, stood in a courtroom as a series of charges were laid out, including his alleged role as a leader of the Sinaloa Cartel.

There is a long list of cartel and organized crime leaders over the past few decades who have been targeted through what become known as the 'Kingpin Strategy'. The strategy aims to weaken, destabilise, and destroy criminal groups through a variety of methods, but is not without critics.

In this episode of Deep Dive: Monitoring, we look at the arrest of Ovidio, the history and impact of the Kingpin Strategy, how organized crime responds to a prominent criminal leader being removed, the so-called "Narco-Culture" that surrounds criminal actors, and the impact it has on the communities bearing the greatest impact of these criminal groups.

Speaker:

Siria Gastelum Felix, the Director of Resilience, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime - Link

GITOC:

OC Index - Mexico

OC Index - Colombia

Clan del Golfo: The fall of 'Otoniel' - How Colombia's biggest drug lord was taken down.

Mexico’s war with itself? ¿La guerra de México consigo mismo?

Additional Reading:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cmlj7cFHlsA

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/criminal-prosecution-drug-traffickers-under-continuing-criminal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-66853111

https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/oficina-de-envigado-profile/

https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/auc-profile/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66784678

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/20/colombias-coca-crops-grew-to-historic-levels-last-year-un

https://museum.dea.gov/video-archive/kingpin-strategy-did-it-work

https://justiceinmexico.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/OCVM-21.pdf

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=CO&most_recent_value_desc=true

“If you can do it without consequences, then you should do it”.

What are illicit Financial Flows, or IFFs? And why do they matter?

Every illicit market, from drug trafficking, people smuggling, the illegal wildlife trade, arms trafficking etc. all are connected to IFFs. IFFs are about the movement of money across borders that is illegal in some way.

The money could be from a criminal act, like corruption or its money associated with the illicit markets above. Perhaps, it could be legitimately earned money that is transferred in a way that evades taxation, like being paid in cash and not declaring it or money is funnelled into complex corporate schemes and secrecy jurisdictions. Or perhaps its ultimate use is something like terrorist financing or funding organised criminal activity.

Dirty money is a global problem, according to the IMF, it makes up between 2-5% (up to $5.25 trillion dollars) of global GDP.

Given the scale of the problem, in this episode we will focus in on the Western Balkans in South-Eastern Europe through three IFFs - money laundering investigations in Kosovo, corruption and the role of the private sector in Albania, and tax evasion in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Speaker(s):

Dardan Kocani, Field Coordinator for Kosovo for the South Eastern Europe Observatory at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Sokol Toska, Legal Auditor in Albania and expert in money laundering and illicit financial flows.

Anesa Agovich, Field Coordinator for Bosnia and Herzegovina at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Links:

Illicit financial flows in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia: Key drivers and current trends

Illicit Financial Flows in Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia: Key drivers and current trends

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Global Organized Crime Index

Research Links:

https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/europol-review-2016.pdf

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

https://www.ibe.org.uk/resource/tax-avoidance-as-an-ethical-issue-for-business.html

https://www.transparency.org/en/corruptionary/tax-evasion

https://albaniandailynews.com/news/wanted-for-incinerators-affair-stela-gugallja-detained-in-austria...