
EU US Trade War Escalates: 20% Tariffs Threaten Transatlantic Commerce and Risk Significant Economic Disruption
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On April 2nd, 2025, President Trump made global headlines by announcing a sweeping Reciprocal Tariff Policy. This policy, revealed during a Rose Garden press conference, follows through on months of warnings. According to Ernst & Young, the new policy mandates country-specific tariffs on goods imported into the United States from partners like the European Union, even if those goods are normally covered by free trade agreements. The most significant change? Effective April 9th, 2025, a 20% duty rate was set for most EU-origin goods entering the US. This is a dramatic escalation from the prior standard and has already triggered sharp responses from European leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU stands ready to negotiate on barriers to transatlantic trade, it is also finalizing countermeasures to protect European interests and businesses if talks fail.
In direct response, the EU launched a public consultation in May to assess a new package of retaliatory tariffs. Global Policy Watch notes that the proposed EU countermeasures could impact up to €95 billion of US imports, with most products facing a potential 25% ad valorem duty. Sectors under review include industrial and agricultural goods, as well as possible export restrictions on steel scrap and chemicals. Notably, EU officials clarified that US services have not yet been targeted in these responses. The fate of these countermeasures hinges on the outcome of ongoing negotiations—if no compromise is reached by July 9th, when a 90-day pause on higher US tariffs expires, the EU’s new tariffs could be activated.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic effects of these tariff hikes are beginning to emerge. The European Commission’s economic forecast warns that tit-for-tat tariffs are likely to drag down both US and EU GDP. For Europe, the most immediate impacts include modest inflationary pressure, weaker growth, and increased uncertainty for investors. While European monetary policy may help cushion the blow, the drag on international trade is already visible, with industries on both sides preparing for further volatility.
On the technical side, US Customs and Border Protection continues to manage quota and tariff rate data for steel and aluminum, with updated limits published regularly for 2025. The EU’s ongoing negotiations with the US remain crucial, as both sides seek a way forward to avoid deepening the trade rift.
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