• The New Axis, Neoliberalism, and Germany [Mailbag]
    Sep 5 2024
    In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg summon their next dream guest and tackle some listener questions, including the role of economists in predicting outcomes, China's industrial strategy, the new axis, the state of Germany and Britain, and the legacy of neoliberalism. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 & 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 -- SPONSORS: WorkOS 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:26) Noah's trip to Poland (01:31) Summoning dream guests - Sergey come on the pod! (02:43) Mailbag Q: Why listen to economists? (09:18) Corporate income taxes and policy (11:59) Unrealized gains (15:18) China's industrial strategy and global relations (17:37) The New Axis (21:25) Potential for World War III (24:06) Sponsor: WorkOS (25:08) Best industrial policy for small landlocked South Asian nations (25:47) Drug prizes in the US (27:29) Nationalistic standpoint and fiscal rules (31:08) Controversies around national sales tax (33:01) Geothermal energy and the future of oil industry (35:54) Germany's energy and economic policies (38:52) State of Britain and Immigration Issues (47:41) The legacy of Neoliberalism (53:13) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    58 mins
  • Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on AI's Moat, Risk, and SB 1047
    Aug 29 2024
    This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. -- 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 & 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 -- SPONSORS: NetSuite | Babbel | WorkOS 📈 More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: netsuite.com/102 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @anthropicAI @turpentinemedia -- LINKS: Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Elon Musk's endorsement of SB 1047: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1828205685386936567 -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:06) Dario’s intellectual evolution (04:18) Is Google the Bell Labs of AI? (07:48) Economic moats in AI (10:13) Scaling hypothesis and AI’s future (14:46) National security and AI (16:44) Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay (18:14) AI’s impact on business models (24:19) Noah's big thesis (27:13) Sponsors: NetSuite | Babbel (29:23) AI arms races? (33:41) AI’s impact on labor and skill distribution (38:05) Sponsor: WorkOS (39:06) Future of AI and a hyperscaling world (41:42) A vision of radical abundance (47:14) AI safety and inequality (51:23) The SB 1047 debate (56:13) Rabbit alignment problem (58:41) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 3 mins
  • Kamala/Trump Policy Discussion: Housing, Immigration, Tariffs
    Aug 21 2024
    In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the the policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, complexities of housing affordability and wealth storage, challenges in immigration policies, and critique the effectiveness of tariffs. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 -- SPONSORS: WORKOS | BABBEL 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Harris has the right idea on housing: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:48) Discussing housing policy (05:53) Singapore's housing model (10:54) Kamala Harris' housing plan (12:32) Federal vs. Local housing regulations (14:32) Grocery store price gouging debate (22:28) Mass deportation policies (24:23) Sponsors: WorkOS | Babbel (26:51) Illegal Immigration (31:58) Economic impact of immigration (37:12) Cultural disruptions from immigration (43:37) Tariffs and trade policies (49:35) Republican focus on immigration (57:31) Export controls and Chinese chip industry (01:00:29) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 3 mins
  • Tech Maturity and What Lies Ahead
    Aug 14 2024
    This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the differentiation between technology and 'tech' as an investment category, the future of AI, potential profitability of AI companies, and the challenges faced by VC investors in the AI space. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: NETSUITE | BABBEL | WORKOS 📈 More than 37,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. If you're looking for an ERP platform, get a one-of-a-kind flexible financing program on NetSuite: netsuite.com/102 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-TCR -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Some thoughts on the future of the tech industry: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-the-future-of-the _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:23) State of technology: Optimism vs. realism (07:18) Consumer social and the limits of innovation (11:10) Role of AI in education and healthcare (18:35) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (20:44) Impact of incumbents on innovation (25:28) Future of e-commerce and remote work (31:52) Sponsor: NetSuite (32:59) Future of AI in venture capital (36:13) Economic impacts of AI adoption (40:52) Challenges in AI profitability (43:33) Role of big tech in AI (50:24) Political shifts in the tech industry (01:03:13) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 5 mins
  • Explaining Kamala’s VP Pick, the US Economy, Venezuela’s Fall and China’s Rise
    Aug 7 2024
    This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the implications of Tim Walz as Kamala Harris' VP pick, the stock market chaos of Monday August 5th, the state of the U.S. economy, the economic collapse of Venezuela, and the growth of East Asian countries. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-TCR -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Who's "weird"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/whos-weird _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Discussion on the VP pick (08:49) Democrats and the strategy of 'Return to Normalcy' (09:56) The Weirdness Discourse (17:11) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (19:38) ‘Weirdness’ in politics (23:44) Kamala's inconsistency (26:16) Economic updates and market sentiment (32:54) Economic indicators and unemployment trends (36:23) Concerns about national debt (40:00) The dollar milkshake theory (42:07) Venezuela's economic collapse (51:04) East Asian economic success stories (01:00:01) China's growth and success (01:03:44) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 4 mins
  • AI, Software, and White-Collar Jobs
    Jul 31 2024
    In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle pressing listener questions focused on the economic impact of AI, software, immigration, and more. They also cover the potential for economic development in poor countries and the evolving nature of industrial policy in the US and China. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj - RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Economic development in poor countries (05:31) Role of Foreign Aid (08:03) Universal Basic Income and parenting (11:47) Software and inequality (21:50) Impact of AI on employment (25:55) Sponsors: Babbel | WorkOS (28:22) Existing AI capabilities (36:06) Immigration impacts (44:35) Shifting progressive economic policies (54:12) China's industrial policy vs. US (01:00:59) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 2 mins
  • Kamala's Chances, Biden/Trump's Legacy
    Jul 26 2024
    In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of Kamala Harris as a presidential nominee, President Biden’s legacy, impact of COVID-19 on the economy and inflation, and the recent shifts in U.S. foreign relations and immigration policies. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | WORKOS 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🛠️ Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:17) Kamala Harris's political prospects (05:04) Biden's legacy and presidential impact (11:07) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv (13:42) COVID-19 vaccine release (16:03) Inflation and economic policies (22:53) Industrial policy and trade (28:48) Sponsor: WorkOs (29:49) Impact of Trump’s presidency (33:54) Trump vs. Biden (38:37) Afghanistan withdrawal and the role of Trump and Biden (46:24) Ukraine: Biden administration's response (54:32) Biden's big challenge on immigration (58:00) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 1 min
  • J.D. Vance, Biden's Path Forward, and Silicon Valley’s Shift to Trump
    Jul 17 2024
    In today’s episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the nomination of JD Vance as Vice President, Trump's political strategies, and the potential geopolitical shifts with a focus on China. The conversation also covers Biden's policy continuity and the role of tech leaders in shaping political directions. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 - 🎙️ History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | BABBEL | COMMANDBAR | WARP 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://get.babbel.com/econ102 🐝 Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. Go to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months 🦾 Level up your ineffective website chatbot with CommandBar. CommandBar builds a new type of web assistant which delivers highly personalized responses, real time co-browsing, and can perform actions on behalf of the users. Learn how Hashicorp, Gusto, Freshworks and more use CommandBar at https://commandbar.com/moz This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when your first run payroll. -- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co -- LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:22) Analyzing J.D. Vance's VP Nomination (03:11) J.D. Vance's policy positions and influence (09:14) Trump's foreign policy and asia focus (14:07) Healthcare spending and political shifts (17:58) Biden's continuation of Trump policies (22:36) Sponsors: Beehiiv and Babbel (25:11) Potential changes if Trump gets re-elected (26:34) Silicon Valley's political shift (33:46) Democrats' relationship with technology (37:06) Elon Musk's political shift (46:40) Sponsors: CommandBar and Warp (48:51) Current state of stability in the US (55:49) Future of U.S.-China relations (59:22) Importance of patriotism in the 2030s (01:04:52) Role of tech leaders in influencing politics (01:05:12) Wrap
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 6 mins