Emerging Market (EM) equities have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The weaker US dollar has furnished a number of positives for EM assets, from cheaper funding to less imported inflation to a more attractive carry trade. David Hauner discusses the various positives ahead, including superior economic growth, central bank cutting cycles and the possibility of a lengthy dollar decline. David also discusses EM credit which has seen buying from US investment grade and high yield funds attracted to compelling yields. One of the main risks to this bullish view is a significant deterioration in global trade. So far, however, trade numbers look good and should things deteriorate enough to warrant Fed rate cuts, the dollar could weaken further, bolstering relative performance for EM.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

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Several positives for US defense but FY26 a tough comp

Defense spending growth in the US and Europe is accelerating. The shift is particularly acute in Europe, where NATO allies had been spending between 1.5% to 2% of GDP on defense equipment but agreed in late June to spend 3.5% by 2035 (5% including other national security spend). Stocks of the European defense contractors have performed well this year as the market begins to anticipate this stronger spend and Ron Epstein addresses to what degree this spending will flow to US defense contractors, given Europe has an interest in boosting the domestic defense industry. Certain programs, like the F-35 fighter jet, could take a decade or more to replace should Europe be interested in their own program, while others could be replaced more quickly and this is a reason why US contractors could lose share of Europe spend with time. Ron also addresses the role that drones could play, implications for higher-end defense equipment, whether F27 is poised to be a down year for US defense spending and the new and existing equipment that could be demanded by the US' Golden Dome.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

The US Equity Strategy team recently raised its S&P 500 target but the target implies little to no upside between now and year-end as the team sees few positive catalysts over the next several quarters. Fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill will be positive but lower than originally expected. The US Economics team expects the new fiscal plan to add between 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP growth in 2026 and to fade thereafter as benefits are front-loaded. US Economics does expect an important change next year as the Fed should start cutting rates and US Strategy discusses how this could boost certain areas of the market. But before discounting 2026 cuts, stocks may have to contend with a pricing out of 2025 cuts-US Economics doesn't expect rate reductions to start until the back half of next year. Jill and Aditya discuss tariffs, the resiliency of large corporates in particular and how tariff strategies could be impacted if higher costs begin to noticeably impact prices.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.