Though the possibility of tariffs and immigration reform, in combination with pro-growth policies, would seem to bias interest rates higher, the 10Y yield is up fairly modestly since election results were announced. And while Mark Cabana expects the 10Y yield to trade in a higher range than it did previously, Mark and the team don't expect 10Y yields to run to 5% and beyond. Mark joins us to discuss the forces that could push rates higher and those that could weigh them down. He discusses Fed path implications for the 10Y and how the rate components have changed since the election. Mark also discusses how US policies could spill over to rate markets globally and what that means for Treasury demand.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

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Gold has had an incredible rally this year, appreciating more than the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. Global central banks have bought at the fastest pace in history, and making gold the second largest reserve asset behind the US dollar. Jared Woodard believes there may be a buyable dip in the months to come and explains why. As for gold equities, they have materially outperformed the gold price of late and Lawson Winder says the time to own gold miners is during bull markets for gold but longer term, the stocks have clearly underperformed the metal. Electrification is more an important driver for gold than silver as it's a better conductor than copper. Lawson discusses this and why the electrification push remains a good investment theme.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

HY issuance recovers but net new credit largely absent

Spreads in the US high yield market are near the tightest levels ever, providing a constructive read on the US economy. Tight spreads and lower rates have led to a pickup in HY issuance, which recently approached more normal levels, but that has since slowed as rates moved up. And much of the issuance seen has been used for refinancing. The positive is that there could be another leg for issuance as companies sell debt to finance capex or acquisitions. This is the Fed transmission mechanism at work. Oleg discusses the impediments to such a shift and the implications of getting the election behind us. We also discuss private credit, how rapid growth in that market impacts high yield and where Oleg sees the best opportunities.

You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.

"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.

©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.