Hi! I don't know if you fly much, but we’ve done millions of miles and lately we get the feeling that our airline infrastructure is crumbling. Recently, it took us 48 hours to travel from Portland, Oregon to Atlanta—four canceled flights, two overnight delays. It was clear from the stranded business crowd and the airline personnel that this was now quite normal.Then there’s this week’s big world news as the steep crash in the Japanese stock market has sent ripples throughout the stock markets of other nations also since the markets are connected.A Big Little BookThis week I want to promote another important book. It’s a lightweight 80 pager about a weighty matter. It’s called Immoderate Greatness, Why Civilizations Fail by William Ophuls. Ophuls explains what makes every attempt at building a great society fail. It starts with the dream itself. Each civilization dreams of their own greatness. To get there, they make endless growth an obsession. By demanding growth month after month, year after year, they drain their abundant resources, then enter into endless wars to take the resources of other nations. As they create new technologies, their systems become increasingly complex. When they are rich and fat, they fall apart morally. Finally, they collapse on the weight of their own unchecked “greatness” as the weight of their endlessly expanding support system pulls them under. Is there still time for us to learn this lesson?Living on the Outer EdgeComplex systems operate right at the edge of failure. “As long as nothing goes wrong” the system buzzes along, but when one part fails, the failure cascades. There has never been a more complicated system than our current civilization. Don’t Our Leaders Know?Leaders even from the Roman Empire days knew all about the past failures, yet astonishingly, each new civilization still follows the same path as their predecessors, somehow expecting a different result, because they believe themselves “special”."Forests precede civilizations and deserts follow them."—François-René de ChateaubriandHard to Put it DownDespite its ominous outlook, the book is incredibly engaging. Ophuls writes with clarity and eloquence, making complex ideas easy to understand. I think it’s important to make ourselves think about unpleasant things like writing a will, getting life insurance, and going to the doctor to check on that lump. Crises will come into every life. We can’t always stop them, but by thinking ahead we might keep a systems problem from becoming a total disaster.Is There a Happy Ending?Ophuls listens to his critics who complain that he isn’t giving us a “solution.” His reply is that the only solution is for a change in the human heart. He explains that throughout the centuries and in every culture, human motivations are selfish. Our greed is insatiable. We refuse to limit our consumption. We will not cap our greatness.So, the weight of our excessive lifestyle, the cashflow it requires, and the upkeep on the massive infrastructure puts an impossible load on an ever-crumbling system. The final stage before the great breakdown, according to Ophuls, is intentionally allowing economic inflation. “Why would anyone do this?” you might ask. The simple answer is that inflation allows a nation to pay their bills and still avoid having to make sacrifices. It’s like putting all your debts on a new credit card each month, letting the interest accumulate. The ones in charge don’t want the party to end on their watch, so they play games with the economy to let the good times can go on a little while longer. It’s like watching a dam break in slow motion.Can one election solve such a situation? Sadly, Ophuls says, “No, the entire system that runs the “greatness” of the nation is the problem.” The nation would have to be willing to sacrifice so they could put things right and no civilization has ever been willing to do that.My Favorite Insight—God is SmartMy favorite insight from this book is, “The only way to avoid the bust is to cap the boom by not allowing cheap credit in good times.” It made me think about the Sabbath Year and, especially, The Year of Jubilee in the law God gave Moses for Israel. Jubilee was a total economic leveling experienced once in every generation. All greatness was dismantled. All properties reverted to the family that originally owned it. Slaves went free. All debt was cancelled. The banks had zero loans on their books. A system like this is the only way to prevent the collapse of a civilization.Sadly, we don’t find a single time in Bible history when Israel followed this law.What Can We Do?* Anchor our heart to God and His coming Kingdom. It’s the permanent solution for this recurring problem.* Pull Together as Families.* Do what we can to avoid personal catastrophic loss. This isn’t a good time to “bet the farm” on a new idea. Play defense. Cut back on your own “greatness” of lifestyle...
