• Matt Crockett: Kāinga Ora CEO on increased warnings and evictions, vacant properties
    Jun 6 2025

    Clearer boundaries around Kāinga Ora tenant behaviour could explain a 600% surge in formal warnings.

    In the past 10 months, 63 tenancies were terminated because of abusive, threatening, or persistently disruptive behaviour.

    Nearly 1,500 warnings have been issued in the financial year to date.

    Chief executive Matt Crockett told Kerre Woodham behaviour isn't worse, rather the previous framework wasn't as sharp.

    He says clearer boundaries and more follow through now have more people's behaviour changing for the better.

    The fate of multiple vacant Kāinga Ora sections sitting empty will be confirmed in the next month.

    Multiple projects are on pause as the state housing agency re-focuses on the Government turnaround plan.

    This includes selling 900 older homes a year and a new build programme.

    Crockett told Woodham Kāinga Ora's been reviewing which areas are cost effective and serve populations.

    He says about 20% of its current land holdings will be sold back to the market.

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    34 mins
  • Kerre Woodham: Who should be paying more for home insurance?
    Jun 5 2025
    It's not really a huge shock, is it? The news that homeowners will have to pay even more for home insurance to help the Natural Hazards Commission (formerly known as the EQC), is to be expected. Insurers have been warning for years that premiums will rise and will continue to rise, that they may have to put some of the cost of risky properties back onto homeowners and in some cases, they'll be declining to insure homes altogether. And we've already started to see that. In 2017, a then-record $242 million in weather-related claims was paid out. Just six years later, climate related claims were more than $3.5 billion due to the Auckland anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. It's incredible when you see the insurers' charts, 20 odd years ago they'd say this is a record year or this is a once in 100 year, then the next year, or three years later it would treble in terms of the cost of the claims that had to be paid out. So there's a pattern, you'd be a fool to ignore it, and the government is not doing so. Nor is the insurance industry. The Natural Hazards Commission provides cover for capped portions of residential buildings and land damaged by earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, hydrothermal activities, tsunamis, storms, and floods (land cover only). Leaving private insurers to cover the rest. The NHC has struggled to recover following the Canterbury earthquakes and faces huge future claims costs. The new modelling lifts the likelihood of a big earthquake, with construction costs soaring post-pandemic and the reinsurance market hardening. The NHC is so underfunded that there's only a 37% chance the levy income will meet the costs over the next five years, according to the Treasury. And the NHC must cover the first $2.1 billion of claims related to a natural disaster before it can tap into its reinsurance cover. So just like any insurance claim, you must pay your excess, and then it will chip in. It's just in this case, $2.1 billion is your excess. Given there's only $500 million in the kitty, if there was a big disaster today or tomorrow, the government would have to find more than $1.6 billion to cover the claim costs before reinsurance cover could kick in. Associate Finance Minister David Seymour says levies will almost certainly need to rise, Cabinet’s set to decide on the changes in the coming months. An insurance consultant told Ryan Bridge this morning it'll probably cost homeowners an extra $200 to $300 more a year. And if that sounds like a lot, well count yourself lucky, because there are some people who simply won't be able to get insurance for their homes. And it's not just people in the obvious places on cliffs or banks next to rivers who will be paying. Everyone is at risk. And those living up the top, who’s homes are built on traditional drainage areas or water soak areas are part of the problem. We're all in this together. So, what are your options? If you have a mortgage you have to be insured, but it might mean that people take the bare minimum because that's all they can afford, meaning they are left underinsured and depending on the kindness of strangers to recover after disaster strikes. Will Give A Little be the insurer of choice for people who can't afford to cover themselves? I assumed Hamilton might be the safest place to live, and I was right. Volcanologists say Hamilton is probably the safest place to live. It’s away from the coast which cancels out tsunamis. It’s a safe distance from known fault lines, although there is the caveat that one could be lurking. It's far enough away from Auckland's volcanic field to be considered safe, and even if the Waikato River flooded its much lower than the houses around it. In the North Island, there's no real escape so should the north be paying more? Do we start pointing the finger at other areas? Can the people of the Waikato say “Hey, not us. We are living in a really safe area. If you choose to live anywhere outside of Hamilton, it's on you.” Do we ban the rebuilding? Make them no go zones of any area that's been flooded 2, 3, 4 times in the past 100 years. It's all very well and good for those who have not been flooded or have not been affected or haven't seen their homes turned to smithereens to say just move. But for most people, their home is their castle. It is their most significant financial investment. If they can't sell their home, they can't move. They have to patch it up and make do. So I would be really interested to hear your thoughts on this one. Do we go in this as “we're all in this together?” We accept that we're living on the shaky aisles, that we are a natural hazard magnet and that's the price you pay for living in a bucolic paradise. Should some areas pay more than others? Do you get the insurance companies whose business it is to gauge risk to set cover across the country based on the riskiness of each region.? Do we ban the rebuilding on known flood areas? What do you ...
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    8 mins
  • Kerre Woodham: How can we take polls seriously?
    Jun 4 2025
    Honestly, I don't know why we report on polls. Seriously, I don't know why I'm even talking about them myself, but it's really ripped my nightie overnight. They're so frustrating, and because media companies commission them, it makes the media look like master manipulators. This is from 1News last night (I didn't watch 1News, obvs) but this is from their website – both National and Labour have slid in the latest 1News-Verian poll, while New Zealand First have moved to their strongest position in eight years. If an election were to be held today, the right bloc of National, ACT, and New Zealand First would have 63 seats —enough to form a coalition— while the left bloc of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pati Māori would have 58 seats. So that's from 1News and their Verian poll. This is from Radio New Zealand – after the budget and pay equity changes, the left bloc would have the support to turf the coalition out of power, the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll shows. The preferred Prime Minister and leadership ratings are also bad news for the government, with the exception of Winston Peters, who's seen his highest results since 2017. The ratings of the government's general performance have also continued to slide, with Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori all gaining compared to the previous poll, they would have a majority with 63 seats between them, compared to the coalitions 57. A direct opposite of what 1News-Verian said. How can this be? And it's always headline news. You've got 1News talking about the right bloc being able to hold on to power, but only just, and look out. You've got RNZ crowing about the fact that the coalition government would be turfed out of power with the left gaining hold. And both lead with it, and it leaves me scratching my head and doubting both of them. How do you imagine the pollsters collect their data? Random phone calls of 1000 people? No, no, no. It's far more tricky than that, and they put it in every story. It must be an obligation on the part of the media company to say how the data was collected. From TVNZ: Between May 24 and May 28, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (502). What are online panels? Are they things you sign up to yourself? Who knows? The maximum sampling area is approximately plus 3.1%. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. So what does that mean? If I'm a numpty, am I worth 2 points as opposed to somebody who leaves school worth NCEA and that's worth one? What does that mean? If I'm 18 and I respond, does that mean because there are fewer 18 year olds who respond, does it mean that my reckon is worth double that of somebody who's 50+. How can you weight the information? And not all 18 year olds think the same way. If you're looking at ethnic identification, not all Māori, not all Pakeha, not all Pasifika, not all Chinese people, think the same way. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling. Online sample is collected using an online panel. So that's from 1News. This is from RNZ: This poll of 1008 people was conducted by Reid Research using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between the 23rd and 30th of May 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. I'm of a mind to never discuss the polls again. The statisticians and the research pollsters and the companies all say, oh, no, no, no, it's terribly scientific. Is it really? When you've got two polls conducted over the same time, presumably using the same scientific methods, coming up with two completely different results. If the polls were scientific, surely you'd see a consensus of opinion. You wouldn't go sniffing like a truffle hunter looking for respondents that agree with your particular version of the way things should be. It's like you're researching into an echo chamber. It's not worth the time and the money. If this is what RNZ is spending their money on, given that they are funded by the taxpayer, I'd rather they spend it on training up young reporters or allowing a veteran reporter to spend some time doing some investigative journalism, rather than coming up with a poll that supports their worldview. And which is in direct contrast to the other taxpayer funded organisation, which is kind of paying its way at the moment, which is 1News. What is the point? How on earth can we take them seriously when they come up with completely different results and when all the data is weighed, quotas are taken, samplings adjusted. It's an absolute crock. The emperor is stark naked and shouldn't be taken seriously at all. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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    7 mins
  • Ben Speedy: ASB's General Manager of Commercial Banking on businesses' uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs
    Jun 4 2025

    Kiwi business leaders fear the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs will be more severe than the impact of the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic.

    ASB and Talbot Mills have been surveying more than 300 business leaders, including CEOs and founders.

    Two-thirds of businesses are concerned about the impacts, including almost 80% of exporters.

    Meat, dairy and wine are expected to be hit harder, while the wool and seafood sectors are expected to fare better.

    ASB's General Manager of Commercial Banking, Ben Speedy, told Kerre Woodham that the results highlight that businesses are really struggling with the uncertainty that’s playing out in the environment at the moment.

    He says businesses not only need to navigate tariffs, but also the difficult business and economic environment in New Zealand.

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    7 mins
  • David Farrar: Curia Market Research Owner on how political polls work
    Jun 4 2025

    How is it that two recent polls had such starkly different outcomes?

    The latest RNZ Reid Research poll —out this morning— has the right bloc on 46.4, behind the left bloc on 50.3.

    But the latest 1 News Verian poll —released last night— has the right bloc on 50-percent, well ahead of the left bloc on 45.

    Curia Market Research Owner David Farrar told Kerre Woodham that when you poll 1000 people, they say there’s a 3% margin of error – so if a party is sitting at 50%, in reality they’re somewhere between 47% and 53%.

    His advice for conflicting polls is to average them out, as that will generally give you a pretty good idea.

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    13 mins
  • Kerre Woodham: Our workplace fatality rate is appalling
    Jun 3 2025

    On average, there are 73 work-related deaths in New Zealand every single year. Relative to the number of people in employment, the New Zealand workplace fatality rate is double that of Australia, and it hasn't shifted in many, many years. More road cones have not made a difference. The New Zealand rate is similar to the rate the UK experienced back in the 1980s. The gap between New Zealand and Australia is consistent across most industries and occupations. It's not like we've got one that is more dangerous than any other, which is why it's throwing these figures out. It's consistent across industries and occupations.

    Looking at the construction industry, the New Zealand fatality rate is 4.41 workers every 100,000 compared to 2.93 workers in every 100,000. The workplace injury rates tell a similar story. New Zealand injury rates, as reported by ACC have improved over time, however the Australian rate is 25% lower, the UK 45% lower. Why? Why are we so much worse than other countries we should be able to compare ourselves with? Brooke van Velden, the Minister for Workplace Safety, says we're overregulated. That there are too many rules and the fear of prosecution is making workplaces less safe.

    “We're changing the focus of worker health and safety to focusing on the critical risks, those things that can cause deaths and serious injury, and at the same time, I'm changing the focus of WorkSafe to care about deaths and serious injury as well and not sweating the small stuff because we've had a culture of too much over compliance, ticking all the boxes, trying to get all of the paperwork done, rather than focusing on, do I actually do anything in my workplace that could cause death or serious injury? And are we doing that correctly?

    “So I'm saying to everybody out there, let's not sweat the small stuff. Let's focus on those deaths and serious injury activities and let's have WorkSafe going on site providing more upfront guidance so that they're here to help rather than having too much of the stick.”

    Who was it that said there are no more chilling words than “hi, we're from the government. We're here to help”? It was an American, I'm sure. Is there going to be able to be a change of emphasis? If all of a sudden, Workplace Safety says, ‘hey, we're here to help. We're here to help you, as the employer, make the workplace safer’. Are we able to pivot away from thinking ‘if Health and Safety come in here, they're going to find all sorts of nitpicky things and make my life misery’, to ‘might ring Workplace Health and Safety and see how they can help me’. It's going to take a big mind shift.

    Mike said this morning he thought there were too many rules and there probably are for people who are educated, who have choices about what they do, who have choices about where they work. For people who don't have the luxury of telling a boss to stick it if they're asked to do something they think is really dangerous, or to do something with equipment they think is dangerous, rules are required. But they need to be clear, they need to be effective and if they're not working, do away with them. And I think most importantly, employees need to be on board with them. The number of times I've had employers ring in and tell me that as required by law, they bring in the safety gear, they instruct the workers to wear it, they do spot cheques to ensure the workers are wearing it, and the workers are not wearing it. They say that the goggles mist up. That the harnesses mean that they can't rely on their own wits to go about the building, and they'd rather risk death than rely on their own sense of balance. The employees don't seem to value their lives in some cases. You've got to get employees on board as well.

    There has to be a culture of safety, that workers have to value themselves and employers have to value their workers. And you can't regulate for that. You can't red cone that. I tend to agree that too many rules just mean the important ones get lost in the noise. Too many road cones and you don't know when it's dangerous and when it's not. But our work-related deaths are appalling. And they've been appalling for a very, very long time. How do we fix it? It's only those workers in dangerous occupations, mainly men, and the bosses in those dangerous occupations that can tell us.

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    6 mins
  • Gloria Masters: Handing The Shame Back Founder on AI contributing to child exploitation and abuse
    Jun 3 2025

    The rise of generative AI could be putting children at risk.

    Gloria Masters, founder of 'Handing The Shame Back', believes the current digital environment has enabled “much more sexualised content” of children to be available to predators.

    AI tools allow people to remove clothing from people in photos, such as children, creating fake nude images they can then trade.

    She told Kerre Woodham that share your photos with trusted friends and family members by all means, but the days of posting them on Facebook, Instagram, and other such platforms are gone.

    According to Masters, research shows that 85% of online offenders become contact offenders, going on to abuse real children.

    She says it’s important to stop giving predators a free pass and remove content so they can’t access it.

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    11 mins
  • Kerre Woodham: Will fining parents of absent kids help?
    May 30 2025

    You might have heard ACT leader David Seymour on the Breakfast show this morning. He says there will almost certainly be prosecutions against parents of absent students this year as the Government intensifies its crackdown on school truancy. And it's not even truancy, in my mind truancy are kids doing a bunk, wagging, taking a day off. What this is, is parental neglect. Parents who are failing to ensure that their kids get to school and get to school on time. According to Ministry of Education figures, around 11.3% of students were chronically absent from school and term 4 last year, equating to around 93,000 young people. Chronically absent means a student attends 70% of school or less. The Associate Minister for Education spelled out what's going to happen next to parents who will not send their kids to school.

    “Basically, a school will go to the Ministry of Education, say look, we've got someone who they're not a can’t, they’re a won't. We've tried. We've gone out. We've engaged with them. They're basically giving us the middle finger and saying education is not important and you've got no right to demand that my kid enrols and attends a school. And in that case I've been told by the youth aid, police, by the attendance officers, by the deputy principal, we need another sanction, another step we can take. At that point they will go to the Ministry of Education and say, look, this is a potential prosecution case. Ministry of Education will weigh it up and if it stacks up, they'll take the prosecution, ultimately go before the courts. Now you can be fined $30 bucks a day up to $300 initially. For repeat offending the fine on parents can be $3000.”

    Which of course many parents won't be able to pay in that category. They're not going to be able to pay it, but the message is clear from the Government. They are quite happy to be the bad guy in getting your kids to school. And principals have said they've already noticed a difference. The expectation is that young people will attend school. Schools have to deliver statistics on the numbers of children who are turning up and they have to deliver those to the Ministry of Education – if their figures are slipping, or if there's no improvement, then action is taken by branches and agencies of the ministry to encourage children to attend school.

    So is it going to help the parents who've rung in and told me they cannot get their children to school? These are the older students who cannot and will not get out of bed. That makes it a bit tricky. We have had, on the face of it, perfectly “normal parents” who are trying to do the right thing by their children and by the community who want their kids to get ahead in life, who want their kids to go to school, tell us that they cannot get their teenagers out of bed and into the classroom.

    If you can say, well, if I have to pay that fine, then that's going to come out of the money for your wardrobe or the money for your school trip, or the money for your phone plan, will that help? I mean, 11% of kids who are chronically absent, that's quite a lot of children, 93,000 young people, as a lot of young Kiwis who are missing out. And they're not just missing out on learning they're missing out on the structure and the discipline of getting up and going to work.

    And what if the parents and grandparents like me, who take the kids out of school for a jolly? I guess there are exceptions to every rule, but should we be fined as well? If you're willingly, wilfully disobeying the edict from the government to get your kids to school should parents and grandparents like me be fined for basically sticking the middle finger, as David Seymour said, to the attendance expectations?

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    7 mins
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