Episode 12:

In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, we share our Q3 2023 Global Currency & Macroeconomic Outlook. Our Lead Economist, Piya Sachdeva, Economist & Strategist, Sandra Rhouma and Junior Portfolio Manager, Eve Danbury discuss the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.

Discussion points:

01:59: Regional banking stress.

04:01: Broad outlook on the US economy.

06:40: Fast thoughts on the Fed and the trajectory for US inflation.

09:44: Global growth and the China narrative.

12:16: US dollar views into the next quarter.

16:13: Thoughts on the ECB and the Euro.

19:25: Japanese Yen views for the second half of 2023.

21:17: BoE moving forward and the British Pound in a global context.

24:28:  Views on the SNB and Swiss Franc from here.

26:56: Australia - RBA and the Australian dollar.

28:40: Global growth in relation to the Bank of Canada and the Canadian dollar.

30:57: China - the most pivotal story for markets into the next quarter.

34:07: Excitement of emerging markets.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: This piece of content contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of 13th July 2023 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers. This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/regulatory-disclaimers

Discussion points:

02:00: US/China relations - Is there scope for a détente?

10:55: China/Taiwan - Arguably, the hottest topic in geo-politics.

26:20: North Korea - Is their nuclear programme a genuine threat?

29:40: Russia/Ukraine - Are we heading towards a resolution? What could unfold from here?

34:09: EU cohesion - Franco/German relationship hits new lows; a rapprochement between Sunak and Von De Leyen.

42:15: Middle East - An impending escalation in conflict with Israel?

49:07: Washington/Riyadh - Riyadh pivot to Bejing?

50:52: Washington/Europe - Is the special relationship with London dead? How might the relationship with Brussels change in the future?

56:02: UN - Is it a relic, can it be reformed, will it survive in its current form?

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the presenters, Abigail Cushing, Mark Astley and Nigel Inkster, correct as at 5 May 2023. The value of any investments may fall as well as rise. This information is intended for Professional Clients only. Millennium Global does not target retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on: https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/millennium-global-marketing-disclaimers

Is the twenty year decline in the proportion of US dollars held in global reserves the beginning of a paradigm shift or part of business as usual? 

Discussion points:

01:07: Why has the topic of de-dollarization become so prevalent lately and what are the key arguments supporting the notion of the dollar’s demise?

03:36: What is the crux of the argument around the weaponization of the USD fueling global de-dollarization?  How much of a potential problem is this really?

07:31: Perhaps a helpful way to frame the argument for or against the dollar’s reserve status is to put it into historical context. Can you break that history down for us? And what are the key factors that typically support a currency’s reserve status?

12:50: One of the biggest arguments in favour of continued dominance of the USD as the global reserve is the lack of a viable alternative. Can you elaborate on that?

18:30: Are there any risks to being too complacent about dollar dominance? Is there a risk of the USD’s share of global reserves dipping further? What would that mean for the US and for global markets?  

22:21: What actions by the US could put the dollar’s status as the reserve currency at real risk?

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: The views and opinions expressed in this content are correct as at April 2023. The value of any investments may fall as well as rise. This information is intended for Professional Clients only. Millennium Global does not target retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on: https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/millennium-global-marketing-disclaimers