Why are payroll numbers reported as "nonfarm" jobs? What other jobs are excluded from the unemployment rate? Why is "hours worked" an important recession indicator? For this shorter week, Liz Ann and Kathy discuss various aspects of the labor market and its indicators.

They touch on the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall unemployment rate, initial jobless claims, and other key metrics. They also discuss the uniqueness of the current labor market cycle and the challenges in analyzing it. The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve's focus on employment and inflation and the potential impact of the upcoming jobs report on Fed policy.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and market events.

You can read more about the history of the Department of Labor in this article on their website and explore the data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

​Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.
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In this conversation, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss quotes and sayings from industry legends that have resonated with them over the years. You can read Liz Ann's article about her reminiscences in the industry and watch the clip of Marty Zweig calling the crash of ’87 on YouTube.

Kathy and Liz Ann also talk about the Federal Reserve's annual conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and why the economic symposium takes place there. Then, they dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics' benchmark revisions to the annual payroll data and the market's reaction to the revised numbers. They agree that it's unlikely the Fed will cut 50 basis points in September.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and market events.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Futures, and Futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The books Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Market Wizards, Random Walk Down Wall Street, The Money Game, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds, and Against the Gods are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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Kathy and Liz Ann discuss recent events in the market, including fluctuations in the equity market, a global tech outage, and the potential for rate cuts by the Fed. They also provide insights for investors, such as focusing on higher-quality small-cap stocks and the importance of rebalancing.

Liz Ann interviews Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI and vice chairman of Evercore overall. They discuss the current economic cycle and its unique characteristics. Ed and Liz Ann touch on topics such as the impact of the pandemic, inflation, the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, and the health of the consumer. They also explore the state of the stock market, the concentration of mega-cap stocks, and the potential for a market rotation. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the future of the U.S. economy and reasons for optimism.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann provide their outlook for the next week's economic data and the need for the Fed to closely monitor the job market.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Small-cap stocks are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Rebalancing does not protect against losses or guarantee that an investor’s goal will be met. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

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Kathy and Liz Ann discuss this week's expectations around the upcoming jobs report and its influence on the Fed. Their discussion highlights the importance of full employment and wage growth for the Fed. The conversation also mentions other important metrics like long-term unemployment, part-time versus full-time employment, and hours worked. The recent data on service-sector activity, initial unemployment claims, and continuing claims suggest a weakening job market.

Then, Kathy Jones is joined by Joe Brusuelas, who is an economist with RSM. He has expertise in U.S. monetary policy and labor markets. They discuss the potential for rate cuts, the impact of technology on productivity, the rising budget deficit, and geopolitical risks—as well as the specific challenges faced by middle-market companies, such as elevated financing costs and labor shortages.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on the week's upcoming economic indicators.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

ISM is the Institute for Supply Management. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

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