• The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns
    Oct 31 2024

    What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.

    And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.

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    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    43 mins
  • Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
    Oct 30 2024

    Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

    Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

    Read More at Bloomberg.com:
    https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
    https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    46 mins
  • How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
    Oct 24 2024

    This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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    48 mins
  • How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
    Oct 17 2024

    Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment.

    Further Reading:

    The Big Announcement

    More on Thomas Schelling

    More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world

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    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    43 mins
  • The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
    Oct 9 2024

    Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI.

    Further Reading:

    Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin

    The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg

    A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro

    Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    44 mins
  • How to Win Bets and Influence Elections
    Oct 3 2024

    Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

    Further Reading:

    Charity Navigator

    More on Betsy Paluck’s research

    Willy Nelson’s discography

    Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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    49 mins
  • Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model
    Sep 26 2024

    Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    45 mins
  • Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?
    Sep 19 2024

    Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.

    Further Reading:

    Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico

    Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ

    Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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    45 mins