Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have?

Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss.

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This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform.

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This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass?

Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken?

And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answer a listener question about learning to feel the difference between probabilities.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

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Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.)

Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search, and Pushkin+ subscribers get advice about how to pick a doctor.

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Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any players or coaches to tears.

Plus, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the value of betting on underdogs for Pushkin+ subscribers.

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In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it?

Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh!

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What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs, memecoins, and pardons.

And, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the status of their driver’s licenses.

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