Bank advisers and market participants at S&P Global Market Intelligence’s annual community bankers said bank M&A and IPO activity is in a holding pattern and will pick up once there is greater clarity over the macroeconomic and interest rate environment. They also suggested that banks avoid trying to position their balance sheets for particular rate moves and instead prepare for a variety of scenarios. The episode highlights balance sheet strategies, the current regulatory environment and the outlook for bank deal activity from experts at Piper Sandler, Darling Consulting, Alston & Bird, Stephens, KSK Investors and Hovde Group.

The emergence of tariffs led to a broad selloff of US banks amid fears of slower economic growth or even a possible recession. Banks’ first-quarter earnings season showed strong performance before the onset of tariffs, but ultimately might have left investors with more questions than answers.
In the episode, senior reporter Harry Terris shared the key takeaways from large banks’ first-quarter results and highlighted commentary from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Capital One, First Citizens and others. The results show a noticeable divide between "hard" data, such as consumer spending strength, and "soft" data, like stock market volatility and economic forecasts. Despite the uncertainties, major banks have largely maintained their financial guidance. However, they have adjusted loan growth expectations downward due to a more cautious approach from clients, reflecting a "wait and see" attitude amid the current economic climate.
Bank news lead Lauren Seay further discussed how tariffs are expected to negatively impact M&A activity, but also notes that the trade policies have not completely stymied bank deals, with large transactions like Columbia Bank’s plans to purchase Pacific Premier surfacing since tariffs were announced.

Each year, S&P Global Market Intelligence ranks top-performing financial institutions in the following categories: community banks $3 billion to $10 billion in assets, community banks with less than $3 billion in assets, credit unions will more than $100 million in assets, and the top largest U.S. public banks by total assets. In another installment of Tales from Top Performers, executives from two winners of the community bank rankings – Nicolet Bankshares CFO Phil Moore and Northeast Community Bank Chairman and CEO Ken Martinek – share what differentiates their franchises and how they have outperformed peers. They also discussed the greatest challenges and opportunities they see over the next 12 months, both organically and through M&A activity.

Activist investor John Palmer sees plenty of catalysts for bank stocks, including stronger fundamentals, attractive valuations and a resurgence in M&A activity among regional and community banks. In the episode, Palmer, principal and managing member at PL Capital, discussed his firm’s investment approach, its successful history in running proxy campaigns and how its interactions with bank management teams have changed over time. The veteran investor also shared how PL Capital has encouraged change and offered value to management teams as well as his view on the need for scale at some banks, M&A activity, regulation and bank valuations.

The bank advisory community is optimistic that bank M&A activity will rebound in 2025 and they should be, according to Mercer Capital Managing Director Jeff Davis.
In the episode, Davis discussed his takeaways from the annual Acquire or Be Acquired Conference, where scores of advisers shared their viewed for M&A activity to be materially stronger this year. Davis also discussed the improving fundamental environment for banks, the outlook for bank valuations and whether institutions should take advantage of the current optionality in the marketplace and pursue capital raises or acquisitions while the window remains open.

Investors have flocked back to the bank group over the last five months as the fundamental environment has improved and the election results in November added legs to the rally, according to KBW CEO Tom Michaud. In the episode, Michaud discussed improving investor sentiment toward the U.S. bank space, his firm’s expectation for banks’ earnings and credit quality in 2025 and 2026, and the outlook for capital raising and bank M&A activity.

The bank M&A pipeline has improved significantly over the past month, and capital is available for institutions looking to grow amid the surge in investor interest in the banking sector, according to Bill Burgess, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler.
In the episode, Burgess said there are six factors contributing to renewed interest in bank deals, particularly following the recent U.S. elections. He noted that there is pent-up demand for deals after years of stagnation, a rally in bank stock prices has improved seller psychology, and interest rate marks have become more manageable for buyers. He anticipates a shorter regulatory approval process for bank deals and believes larger buyers could return to the M&A arena after getting more clarity on the post-election regulatory framework. Burgess also said capital is abundant for event-driven and growth stories but cautioned against an overly aggressive push for capital issuance driven by rising share prices.

The U.S. election could change the legislative, supervisory and regulatory framework for the banking industry. In the episode, we discuss what different election outcomes could mean for banks with three guests focused on policy, regulation and rulemaking: Paul Merski, executive vice president, congressional relations and strategy at the Independent Community Bankers of America; Naomi Camper, chief policy officer at the American Bankers Association; and Isaac Boltansky, managing director and director of policy research at BTIG. The group outlined the current regulatory framework under the Biden administration and how it has differed from the Trump administration. The panelists agreed that a Harris presidency could be seen as a continuation of the existing regulatory framework and noted that a Trump victory could lead to significant regulatory shifts, particularly around consumer issues, fintech and bank M&A activity. But, they also noted that both candidates have shared populist views, creating a horseshoe effect of the ideological specturm.