The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already Started Podcast By cover art

The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already Started

The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already Started

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 The Real Estate Cycle: A Warning for 2026 Insights from Phil Anderson on the Coming Real Estate Market Crash In my conversation with renowned economist Phil Anderson, you will gain unprecedented insight into the mechanics of real estate cycles and why we are right on the precipice of the next major real estate market crash. Anderson, author of "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking," presents a compelling case that combines economic theory with historical precedent to paint a picture of where we stand today – and where we’re headed tomorrow. The Foundation: Understanding Economic Rent The Law That Economics Forgot To understand the thesis, here’s a powerful analogy: just as we accept the law of gravity dictates that a dropped pencil will fall to the ground, there exists an equally immutable economic law that has been largely forgotten. Anderson calls this the "law of economic rent" and it’s the principle that all of society's gains and benefits will ultimately gravitate toward land prices. This fundamental concept explains why we experience predictable real estate cycles. When society allows land earnings to capitalize into prices (typically representing 20 years of earnings), and banks are permitted to extend credit based on those inflated prices, a real estate cycle crash becomes inevitable. It's not a possibility – it's a mathematical certainty. The Erasure of Land from Economics Anderson reveals a crucial historical shift that occurred after World War I. Prior to 1907, economists universally recognized three factors of production: labor, capital, and land. However, as land reform movements gained momentum and threatened established interests, there was a deliberate effort to remove land from economic textbooks entirely. Today's economists learn only about labor and capital, treating land as merely another form of capital. This fundamental misunderstanding, Anderson argues, is why virtually no mainstream economists saw the 2008 financial crisis coming, nor will they recognize the signs of the coming downturn. The Cycle Mechanics: Why 18-20 Years? Historical Reliability The 18-20 year real estate cycle has been remarkably consistent throughout American history, documented back to 1800. Anderson traces this pattern through every major economic downturn: the 1920s, early 1970s, 1991, and 2008. In each case, the proximate cause wasn't what most economists claimed – it was the deflation of land prices. The current cycle began in 2012, marking the bottom of the last downturn. We are now in year 13 of the cycle, approaching the critical 14-year mark that historically signals the beginning of the end. Here’s how it works: The Anatomy of a Cycle Anderson explains that real estate cycles run like this: The cycle is 18.6 years on average - "14 years up and 4 years down" 2012 was the bottom - Land prices peaked in 2006-2007, then had approximately 4 years down to the 2012 bottom 2026 is the projected peak - As Anderson states: "14 years up from there [2012] takes you to 2026. It really is that simple." We're currently in year 13 - From 2012 bottom + 13 years = 2025, approaching the 14-year peak in 2026 Years 13-14 are the "Winner's Curse" - The final speculative phase when "animal spirits are truly unleashed." Current Position in the Cycle This precise timing explains why Anderson identifies us as being in "the last couple of years of the cycle." All the current signals he observes - housing stocks rolling over, banking deregulation beginning, frenzied speculation in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency - point to our approach toward the 2026 peak rather than suggesting we've already arrived there. The critical insight is that we're in the dangerous final speculation phase right now. We're experiencing what Anderson calls the "Winner's Curse" period of years 13-14, when speculation reaches fever pitch and "animal spirits are truly unleashed." The peak is expected in 2026, which would then trigger the inevitable 4-year down phase running from 2026-2030. This timeline explains why Anderson emphasizes the urgency of preparation - we're not looking at some distant future event, but rather a cyclical turning point that's rapidly approaching and may have already begun. Presidential Patterns: The Republican Connection A Striking Historical Correlation One of Anderson's most intriguing observations concerns presidential politics. Since Abraham Lincoln's era, every final phase of a real estate cycle has coincided with a Republican president taking office. These aren't coincidences but reflect the political dynamics that emerge during speculative bubbles. Anderson notes the historical bookend: George Washington, the first president and America's largest landowner at the time, and now Donald Trump, the 47th president and a prominent real estate developer, both representing the connection between land ownership and ...
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