In our 100th podcast episode, FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss what was announced in the UK budget statement and how it will affect Scotland. We also talk about whether OBR publications alongside the budget shed more light on the budgetary "black hole" left by the previous government, and whether or not this budget signals a significant change in UK fiscal policy.

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) How will the tax decisions taken in yesterday's budget affect people in Scotland?

(9:10) How might the announcements yesterday influence the Scottish budget in December?

(17:30) What has changed about the fiscal rules and what impact has it had?

(29:50) Does this budget signal a change in the direction of UK fiscal policy?

Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets and the role of the OBR in the budget process.

To read more about past chancellors' first budgets, check out the details here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/uk-budget-preview-3-first-budgets-of-post-war-chancellors/

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) What do other chancellors' first budgets tell us about what to expect in Rachel Reeves' first budget statement?

(6:00) What historical budgets happened in similar conditions to the present and what can we learn from them?

(10:24) How has the role of the OBR in the budget process changed over time?

(17:20) What do we expect in the budget statement on Wednesday?

In this episode, Brodie Gillan is joined by Chirsty McFadyen, and Laura Robertson, who is a Research Manager at the Poverty Alliance. Brodie, Chirsty, and Laura discuss the Serving the Future project in the context of Challenge Poverty Week.

Serving the Future is a three-year action research project working with hospitality employers and workers funded by the Robertson Trust. The project is seeking to understand, reduce and prevent in-work poverty and identify changes that could be made within the hospitality sector.

You can find out more about Serving the Future here: https://www.servingthefuture.scot/

You can learn more about the Poverty Alliance & Challenge Poverty Week here: https://www.povertyalliance.org/

Participants

Brodie Gillan, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Laura Robertson, Research Manager, Poverty Alliance

Timestamps

(00:47) What is Serving the Future?
(03:06) What is Challenge Poverty Week and how does it relate to Serving the Future?
(05:20) Why did we focus on the hospitality sector for this project?
(07:20) What are the main challenges facing low-paid workers in the hospitality sector?
(15:55) What conversations have we had with hospitality employers throughout the project?
(22:31) What can listeners learn about in-work poverty?
(27:02) What’s next for Serving the Future?

(00:35) Mairi discusses the headlines from our commentary publication, covering the main indicators of economic conditions

(03:55) Douglas reflects on whether this chimes with the experience he is having with clients

(07:12) Mairi, Joao and Douglas discuss the latest data on Scottish Income Tax, and our old friend fiscal drag

(15:03) Mairi and Joao discuss our analysis of fiscal black holes

(21:33) We all speculate about the UK Budget on 30th October, focussing on the implications if capital gains tax features in the changes the Chancellor is likely to make.

(30:30) Mairi discusses some of our analysis on the Scottish Public sector.

Episode Notes

In this episode, Hannah Randolph is joined by Chirsty McFadyen who leads on our learning disabilities employment research. Hannah and Chirsty discuss the Equality Act and its implementation issues, as well as some of our latest findings from speaking to employers.

We are also joined by Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive at Young Enterprise Scotland, who discussed his neurodivergent condition and how language has impacted his experiences of employment.

Learning disabilities research by the Fraser of Allander Institute can be found at the following link: https://fraserofallander.org/research/adults-with-learning-disabilities-in-scotland/

Our report prepared for the Scottish Parliament on the disability employment gap can be found at: https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2024/1/12/434f4dc4-caa1-4971-b5f3-7699e70ec1ff

Participants

Chirsty McFadyen, Economics Associate, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive, Young Enterprise Scotland

Timestamps

(0:00) Introduction

(00:14) What is the equality act and how does it define disability?

(02:04) What was the reason for having the legislation?

(03:46) What have been some of the issues with it?

Interview with Liam Brown (06:45)

(14:26) Learning disabilities and employers research findings

(24:14) What advice works for employers hiring people with learning disabilities?

Institute Deputy Director Emma Congreve is joined by fellow Deputy Director Joao Sousa and Director Professor Mairi Spowage to discuss all the fiscal announcements over the last month and what they mean for Scotland.

Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss GERS statistics for 2023-24, including the net fiscal balance, details of changes in revenues and spending, how Scotland compares to other UK nations and regions, and what it all means for the independence debate.

GERS 2023-24 can be found on the Scottish Government website at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2023-24/

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) What is GERS and what do the statistics show this year?

(3:40) Why are there versions with and without North Sea revenues?

(8:55) How do these figures compare to previous years?

(10:45) How do these figures compare across UK regions and nations?

(15:20) More on revenue and spending - income tax, pension, social protection, and locally administered taxes

(23:55) What implications does GERS have for the independence debate?

FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by OBR Deputy Chief of Staff Laura Gardiner to discuss the OBR's recent work on the drivers of the growing gap in income tax paid per person in Scotland relative to the UK average.

Find the OBR's working paper on devolved income tax at: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/forecast-methodology/#working

More OBR analysis and devolved forecasts are available at: https://obr.uk/topics/scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland/

Timestamps:

(00:45) The OBR's role in forecasting Scottish taxes

(06:00) The main drivers of differences in income tax per person paid between Scotland and the UK as a whole

(09:40) Employment income differences and underlying drivers

(19:30) Sectoral decomposition

(21:10) The effect of progressive taxation on income tax revenues and how it differs across the UK

(24:20) The effect of the income distribution on the results

(28:20) The effect of Scottish income tax policy