Nick Cohen talks to Lowdown regular and Guardian columnist Rafael Behr about Labour's struggle with the new international Trump disorder, its communications crisis, perceived serial bungling by Sir Keir Starmer and the party's perceived drift.

Starmer struggling with Trump's betrayal of the West

In anticipation of a possible US strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, Rafael & Nick discuss the growing decay of the so-called US-UK "special relationship". Rafael does not believe that Sir Keir Starmer grasps "the sheer enormity of what is happening." He adds "I think he's ultimately a very small "c" conservative person who thinks you can just fix things by sort of just getting through, making do mending sort of DIY around the status quo and hoping that that process will just see you through."

Trump's Putin fanboys are nothing new

Rafael reminds Nick that the American First tradition was "very sympathetic of Hitler or, wanted to keep out of the second World War." He adds, They developed conspiracy theories that Roosevelt was really responsible for Pearl Harbour and all that kind of underworld, which never went away in America, is, is now back, is now back with Trump." Like America First, Trump's MAGA are in a world of where Putin apologists & conspiracy crackpots are now right at the heart of power in Washington.

Clueless Kemi & her hapless party are all at sea

Rafael has completely lost her bearings of where votable right ring thinking is current/y, and even Trump was "...not so stupid as to do the sort of Kemi Badenoch trying to out Reform Reform by being in the sort of mad slightly conspiracy theory, tinge, racist, digital silos that reform paddle around in."

Keir Starmer is an analog prime minister in a digital age

Rafael is convinced that Starmer doesn't have a fully worked out concept of the British economy. Labour has major communications problems and Raf is picking up murmurings among Party figures of possibly replacing him. "he would've been a great Prime minister in 1968 or 1949, " says Rafael, adding, "he's a fantastically well qualified analog prime minister!"

Rafael's recent book Politics: A Survivor's Guide: How to stay engaged without getting enraged is published by W.F.Howes Ltd and available at Amazon and in all good bookshops.

Support the show You can also read his wonderful columns in the Guardian. His X handle is @rafaelbehr

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Authoritarian Tactics in Western Democracies

Nick Cohen and Ben Cohen discuss the tactics of authoritarian leaders, comparing them to successful torturers who exploit vulnerabilities in Western democracies. Nick emphasises that liberal democracies often turn a blind eye to illegal immigrants due to the logistical challenges of enforcing strict immigration laws, which he argued is a weakness that authoritarian leaders like Trump exploit to consolidate power. Ben agreed with Nick's analysis. They also briefly touched on the importance of avoiding formal conversations by not reviewing questions in advance.

Immigration Policy and Political Polarisation

Ben discusses the complex dynamics of immigration policy and its role in American politics, particularly focusing on how Trump's immigration policies and the left's response are contributing to a polarised environment. Ben argues that the left's protests against ICE raids lack strategic direction and may inadvertently play into Trump's hands by validating his claim of a national emergency. He expresses concern that this situation could serve as a dry run for Trump's potential re-election strategy in 2028, where he might use similar tactics to claim the need for extended military involvement to "save the Republic."

Left's Ineffective Fascism Fight Strategy

Ben talks about the current political climate in the United States, focusing on the lack of hope for a free and fair election in 2028 due to insufficient reforms on the left and the resistance's inability to address political realities such as immigration. They agreed that calling the government fascist is appropriate, but the left's overuse of the term has made it meaningless. Ben expressed concern that the left's approach to fighting fascism is ineffective, as they have alienated many people by incorrectly labelling others as fascists in the past.

Trump's Impact on American Democracy

Ben describes the current state of American democracy under Trump's presidency, expressing concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and the potential for further authoritarian tendencies. They highlighted the lack of checks and balances, comparing the situation to historical examples of weak democracies, and warned about the dangers of a Trump victory in 2028. They also touched on the role of Trump's base, his control over the Republican Party, and the implications for the future of American democracy.

Media Polarisation and Political Divide

Ben and Nick discuss the current state of media and politics, particularly focusing on the challenges posed by the "woke left" and the rise of authoritarianism on the right. They agreed that many journalists and politicians are prioritising audience capture and contrarianism over principles, leading to a lack of meaningful debate and criticism, especially on the right in Britain. Ben expressed concern about the direction of the country under Trump, highlighting immigration raids as a potential indicator of future authoritarian measures, and called for a unified resistance from the left.

Read Ben's The Banter Substacks here and listen to his podcasts here.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Global Political Challenges and Predictions

Nick Cohen and John Sweeney discuss the current state of global politics, focusing on the challenges faced by powerful leaders like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. They highlight the recent audacious drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian strategic bomber fleets, which John Sweeney compared to calling out the "Emperor in the Kremlin with no clothes." John expresses caution about predicting the downfall of dictators, citing his past experiences with Mugabe,

Putin's Downfall and Ukraine's War

John and Nick discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, focusing on Vladimir Putin's leadership and the potential for his overthrow. Sweeney shares Owen's argument that there are 3 tests before Putin's downfall: the lack of a viable successor, a crashing economy, and a competent government.

Putin's Influence on Trump

John also talks about the potential influence of Putin on Trump, referencing the Steele dossier (written by former Mi6 officer Christopher Steele.) They agree that while the dossier's claims about Trump's personal behaviour could not be proven, the allegations about Putin's intervention in the 2016 US election were accurate. John highlights the importance of understanding the geopolitical implications of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia, emphasising the need for a realistic approach to global politics.

Trump's Waning Influence and Challenges

John talks about the complex relationship between Trump and Putin, highlighting a potential compromise involving Trump's authoritarian leanings and shared worldview with Putin, despite effective sanctions against Russia that only Congress can repeal. He explained that Trump's chaotic tariff policy and proposed fiscal measures are damaging the real American economy, reducing his political capital to influence events in Ukraine. They also discuss Trump's mini-me Nigel Farage and Reform councils taking down the Ukrainian flag

Ukraine's War & British Politics

John discusses the military situation in Ukraine, noting that while Russian drones are causing problems for Ukraine, the country's huge size means it can retreat significantly before the situation becomes catastrophic. He expressed optimism that Ukraine will win the war, citing the support from the West.

Read all about it!

John @johnsweeneyroar is a distinguished broadcaster and author. His latest book is Murder in the Gulag the explosive account of how Putin poisoned Alexei Navalny. Another of John's most recent must reads is best-seller on Putin, The Killer in the Kremlin, published by Headline Press.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Manosphere's Political Influence Discussed

Nick Cohen talks to author James Bloodworth about his new book which explores the toxic so-called "Manosphere", focusing on its origins and influence, particularly in the context of political movements like Donald Trump's campaign. James highlighted his book, "Lost Boys," which explores the manosphere's impact and is set to be released on June 5th.

Origins of the Manosphere Movement

James explained the origins of the manosphere, which emerged from pickup artist communities in the early 2000s. He described how pickup artists viewed seduction as a science and gender relations as a power game, attracting both men seeking advice on social interactions and those with darker, manipulative intentions. James noted that the movement often targeted neurodivergent men and sold expensive courses based on essentialist gender ideas, leading to a culture focused on conquest and objectification of women.

Pickup Culture and Online Extremism

James discussed his experience with a pickup boot camp, describing it as expensive and objectifying, but noting that some counterintuitive advice, such as being more of a challenge rather than nice, was helpful. He explained how the pickup artist scene evolved into more political and conspiratorial rhetoric, leading to the emergence of the Incel movement and increased misogyny. James also highlighted the role of algorithms in radicalising individuals by funnelling them towards increasingly dark and political content online.

Manosphere Radicals and Social Influence

James and Nick discussed the radicalisation process within the manosphere and how figures like Jordan Peterson can unintentionally influence their audience towards extreme right-wing views. James explained that content creators often lean into controversial topics to increase their audience and revenue, which can lead to self-radicalisation. They also touched on the phenomenon of "gamer gaze," where young men online suddenly turn against women, and the role of social media algorithms in promoting extreme content. The conversation highlighted the complex interplay between individual circumstances, cultural messages, and the influence of charismatic figures in shaping political and social views.

Right-Wing Resurgence in the 2010s

James discussed the rise of right-wing movements in the 2010s, focusing on how liberal feminism and identity politics created resentment among certain groups. They explored how this resentment was harnessed by right-wing influencers and politicians, including Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, who capitalized on "loser culture" and anti-establishment sentiment. James highlighted the shift in media and journalism towards clickbait and contrarian content, which helped spread right-wing ideologies.

Read all about it!

James Bloodworth, @J_Bloodworth, the author of The Lost Boys, A personal journey through the Manosphere published on June 5th by Atlantic Books

Nick Cohen's regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

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UK Economic Stagnation Analysis

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4 talks to Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon discussed the UK's economic stagnation since 2008, highlighting the impact of financial sector reliance, austerity policies, and Brexit. They analysed Keir Starmer's recent EU trade deal, noting modest improvements but emphasising its limited impact on addressing broader economic challenges. Simon suggested that deeper EU integration could yield greater economic benefits, while Andrew questioned whether rejoining the EU would be politically feasible.

Businesses Navigate Political Party Challenges

Nick Cohen & Simon Nixon discuss the challenges businesses face in aligning with political parties, particularly the Conservative Party, due to its current opposition to policies beneficial for business, such as the Brexit deal and trade agreements with India. They noted that businesses may seek alternatives to advance their agendas, given the presence of multiple parties in the political landscape. Simon highlighted the economic impact of the recent National Insurance rise, which was implemented to fund social care but has been met with skepticism and uncertainty about its long-term effects on employment and inflation.

Economic Policy Challenges and Solutions

Simon and Nick discussed the challenges of economic policy, particularly the reliance on low tax rates and central banks to stimulate growth. They agreed that raising taxes is necessary to reduce debt and ease pressure on central banks, as seen in both the UK and US.

Economic Challenges in UK and US

The discussion focused on the economic challenges facing both the UK and the US, with Simon Nixon highlighting how Liz Truss's fiscal policies have left limited room for manoeuver before requiring tax increases or spending cuts. Nixon compared the US situation under Donald Trump, noting that while Trump's tax cuts were temporary, his administration is now pushing through a budget that would increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, primarily to prevent tax rates from rising.

Global Economic Challenges and Reforms

Simon discussed the global economic challenges facing various countries, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, emphasising that no country has a perfect solution. He highlighted the impact of technology, particularly AI, on employment and the need for bold administrative reforms to improve state management. Simon also touched on the Labour Party's sudden rise to power and the lack of comprehensive plans upon taking office, noting the difficulty of implementing significant reforms while in government.

Simon Nixon's Substack column Wealth of Nations is one of the best and most insightful reads on economics and finance. His latest column - Europe's Crippling Risk Aversion - is here.

Nick Cohen's regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

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Nick Cohen talks to Russia expert Ian Garner

Nick Cohen and Dr Ian Garner discussed the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Ian highlighting the strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent in Russia. They also discussed the economic impact of the war, the rise of fascism in Russia, and the Russian government's propaganda tactics. The conversation ended with a discussion on the political landscape in Russia, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the cultural and historical factors that contribute to Russia's inclination towards war.

Putin's Impact on Global Affairs

Nick Cohen introduces the podcast "The Lowdown" and welcomes guest Ian Garner, an academic authority on Russia. They discuss the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ian explains that despite Russia suffering an estimated 900,000 casualties in the war, the country hasn't fallen apart due to strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent.

Political Prisoners in Putin's Russia

Ian discussed the increasing number of political prisoners in Putin's Russia, surpassing the Soviet Union's post-Stalin era. He highlighted the return of old techniques like psychiatric institutions and show trials, and the lack of a fair legal system in Russia. Ian also touched on the militarization of Russian culture, both historically and under the Putin regime, and the government's strategy of bribing people to join the military.

Rise of Fascism in Russia

Ian and Nick discussed the rise of fascism in Russia, tracing its roots to the late Soviet era when dissident groups emerged, including neo-Nazi and nationalist movements. They noted the disappointment of many Russians with the experience of democracy in the 1990s, which led to the rise of a nationalist, irredentist, and revanchist bloc.

Russian Propaganda Tactics and Control

Ian discussed the Russian government's propaganda tactics, including creating multiple narratives to shape public opinion and reality. He noted that these tactics are effective, despite being crude, and that they allow the government to maintain control and manipulate public perception. Ian also compared the current situation to the aftermath of the Soviet-Afghan war, where similar tactics were used to control public opinion.

Dr Ian Garner @irgarner is professor of Russia, war, propaganda @ Pilecki Institute & author of Z Generation: Russia's Fascist Youth. His next book -co-authored - Russia and Modern Fascism is out August 5th.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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The Tories face extinction as a political force

In the meeting, Nick Cohen and Nick Tyrone, author, activist and political commentator, discussed the potential demise of the Conservative party in the UK. They highlighted the party's ideological confusion and complacency as major factors contributing to their decline. Nick suggested that the Conservative party might be losing its way intellectually and ideologically, and that they are complacent about their situation. They also discussed the rise of the radical right in the form of Nigel Farage's Reform party and the potential impact on the Conservative party. The conversation ended with a discussion on the need for the Conservative party to offer an alternative to the Reform party and the importance of having a strong leader to lead the party forward.

Tories' Leadership and Strategy Critique

The two Nicks discuss Kemi Badenoch's leadership and strategy for the Tories. Nick Tyrone criticised Kemi's performance, stating she was not good at politics and had a fatal flaw in her strategy. He argued that her focus on culture issues was the wrong approach, as the Tories needed to rebuild their image as competent and pro-business. Nick Tyreone also suggested that Kemi's strategy was the opposite of what the Tories needed to succeed.

Conservative Party's Potential Dissolution Discussed

Both Nicks discuss the potential for the Conservative party to dissolve into the Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, due to their shared right-wing ideologies. They argued that the Conservative party's failure to articulate a unique reason for its existence in the current political climate could lead to its demise.

Farage's Departure and Reform Party's Future

They then discuss the potential impact of Nigel Farage's departure on the Reform Party's momentum. They agreed that Farage's personality cult is crucial to the party's success, and his absence could lead to its collapse.

The Tories' grisly dilemma

Nick Tyrone says the Tory Party face a grisly dilemma if it decides it has blown its ill-deserved credentials for being the party of business and economic competence thanks to Brexit and Liz Truss. He explains, "If that's the case, just make, just do whatever you need to do with Farage. Make Farage the leader of the conservative party. Melt the conservative party into Reform all the conservative party and just become. Just make Reform the one like right wing vehicle in the country, because that's gonna be more electorally efficient if there's no reason to exist. And what's happening is they are being crushed on one end by the Lib Dems and crushed on the other end by Reform, and they don't appeal to either group. "

Nick Tyrone is an author, activist, policy advisor and commentator and keen observer of the Tory party whose Substack column as Neoliberal Centrist Dad - nick.tyrone.substack.com - is a must read for those of us desperate for the return of sanity to our national political discourse.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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UK's Electoral System Challenges

Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, discusses the challenges of the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system and its impact on political strategies. She points out that the system is no longer working effectively for the two main parties, with recent elections showing candidates winning with as little as 22-25% of the vote.This situation has led to discussions about whether major parties should try to appeal to their core supporters or attempt to win over voters from other parties. Naomi emphasises the need for a new approach to address the limitations of the current electoral system.

Brexit's Impact on UK Economy and Politics

Naomi and Nick discussed the impact of Brexit on the UK economy and the political landscape. Naomi highlighted the fragmentation of voter preferences, with people switching from Labour to Reform UK and the Greens. She noted that Labour's inability to deliver progressive economic policies was hurting their appeal. Nick criticised Nigel Farage for the economic consequences of Brexit, but Naomi points out that the media rarely questions Reform UK's policies beyond Brexit. They agreed that politicians need to lead the conversation and not just react to past elections.

UK Politics: Fragmentation and Challenges

The discussion focuses on the current state of UK politics, particularly the Conservative Party's struggles and the rise of Reform UK. Naomi says that the political landscape is fragmented, with different parties leading in various regions. She notes that Labour needs to provide a compelling vision to motivate progressive voters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a "regressive alliance" between Conservatives and Reform UK, and the need for Labour to deliver meaningful change if they win the next election.

Labour's Strategy and Progressive Party Relations

The discussion focuses on the Labour Party's current strategy and its relationship with other progressive parties. Naomi suggests that Labour is losing more votes to the Liberal Democrats, SNP, and Green Party than to Reform UK. She also mentions internal concerns within the Labour Party about the proposed Welfare Bill, which could increase poverty and break manifesto promises. The conversation then shifts to the Green Party's perspective, with Naomi stating that Green Party leaders feel Labour is arrogant and unwilling to engage in discussions about combating the far right. The Greens' decision to run more candidates in the last election is attributed to a lack of reciprocation from Labour for their previous cooperation. Naomi expressed optimism about Britain's future, emphasising the need to address issues such as stagnant wages and declining public services.

Naomi Smith is one of the country's most incisive commentators on politics & the UK-Europe relationship. She can also be found on Bluesky . Naomi is also a seasoned podcaster, co-hosting the Quiet Riot Pod, the politics podcast with more passion, less shouting & lots of laughter.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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