Episodes

  • Why won’t Wall Street stop fighting our ~3yr-Old “resilient US economy” theme?

    Why won’t Wall Street stop fighting our ~3yr-Old “resilient US economy” theme?
    Jun 6 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down why Wall Street keeps fighting the resilient U.S. economy despite consistently strong data. He explains how private sector balance sheets, labor hoarding, and deregulation are sustaining above-trend income growth—and why media negativity is often just a sales tactic. Darius also addresses growing concerns about inflation data credibility and reminds investors to stay dispassionate, systematic, and focused on the signals that matter.
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    9 mins
  • Will the one big, ugly bill survive Senate scrutiny?

    Will the one big, ugly bill survive Senate scrutiny?
    Jun 4 2025
    Markets are digesting the political theater surrounding the “One Big Ugly Bill” as bipartisan brinksmanship ramps up. Despite high-profile opposition—from Elon Musk to fiscal hawks in the Senate—our base case remains that the bill survives largely intact, with a reasonable probability of expanding further. Investors should fade the noise and focus on the fiscal impulse embedded in Paradigm C: growth-first policy that props up asset markets. We also tackle a client’s question on KISS versus buy-and-hold through the lens of risk management, taxes, and real-world market experience.
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    14 mins
  • Which asset class(es) does the Trump administration want you to invest in?

    Which asset class(es) does the Trump administration want you to invest in?
    Jun 3 2025
    In this Macro Minute, Darius Dale examines which asset class the Trump administration is implicitly encouraging investors to favor. He highlights the OECD's sharply downgraded 2025 growth and inflation forecasts—now well embedded in consensus—and argues that betting on these projections will likely leave investors behind. Instead, Dale urges a shift in focus toward the administration’s actual policy trajectory: reflating growth to de-lever the public balance sheet, a cornerstone of Paradigm C. That path supports equities, credit, and Bitcoin, while proving bearish for bonds and the U.S. dollar. He underscores how misguided shorting risk assets can be for retail investors, arguing for a disciplined, long-only approach backed by 42 Macro’s risk-managed KISS framework.
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    16 mins
  • Are markets too sanguine regarding the strategic decoupling of the US and China?

    Are markets too sanguine regarding the strategic decoupling of the US and China?
    Jun 2 2025
    In this episode, 42 Macro analyzes the key macro question of whether markets are underestimating the risks of strategic U.S.–China decoupling. Their outlook remains anchored in Paradigm C, reinforced by Treasury Secretary Bessent's support for gradual deficit reduction through economic reflation rather than austerity. The episode outlines why short-term tariff tensions and political noise should be faded, and reaffirms a bullish portfolio tilt toward equities, gold, and Bitcoin. Quantitative signals remain constructive, while policy remains reflationary and risk-on. Key risks include geopolitical missteps and declining foreign demand for U.S. assets, yet resilient private sector balance sheets continue to support a structurally bullish market regime.
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    7 mins
  • The Macro Minute

    The Macro Minute
    May 30 2025
    The Macro Minute
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    15 mins
  • How might President Trump react to court setbacks, and what does it mean for markets?

    How might President Trump react to court setbacks, and what does it mean for markets?
    May 29 2025
    This episode explores how President Trump may respond to negative court rulings and derogatory labels like 'TACO.' The discussion suggests Trump could escalate tariffs and trade measures via executive authority, likely increasing short-term market volatility. The hosts advise investors to buy dips, citing signals from their quantitative models that favor risk assets—especially equities, gold, Bitcoin, and cyclicals—over defensive assets and the USD. They highlight near-term liquidity, volatility, and fiscal risks, but expect US equities' next big move to be higher. The episode also answers a listener’s question about the merits of raising the Fed’s inflation target, arguing it could benefit wage growth and credit access for lower-income Americans.
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    12 mins
  • Will the hard data catch down to the soft data or will the soft data catch up?

    Will the hard data catch down to the soft data or will the soft data catch up?
    May 28 2025
    42 Macro analyzes the key macro question of whether soft economic data will catch up to hard data, or if hard data will decline to meet the soft data. Their outlook leans toward soft data catching up over a 3 to 12-month horizon, supported by recent consumer confidence metrics. The episode discusses why fading near-term volatility could be a winning strategy, the continued use of gold instead of bonds as a defensive holding, and a portfolio model tilted toward equities, gold, and Bitcoin. The firm highlights bullish quantitative signals for risk assets, ongoing reflationary policy regime, and opportunities in a potential 20% equity rally. Key risks include near-term volatility and rising global bond yields, while the TINA (There Is No Alternative) theme regains relevance in today's market climate.
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    11 mins
  • Is it time to buy bonds?

    Is it time to buy bonds?
    May 27 2025
    The S&P 500 rebounded post the Memorial Day holiday as markets priced in President Trump’s abrupt U-turn on EU tariff threats. Trump walked back his June 1, 50% EU tariff threat to July 9 after a Sunday call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who agreed to expedite negotiations. Elsewhere, a rally in Japanese bonds triggered buying in US Treasuries as Japanese officials initiated steps to stabilize the JGB market. 40yr JGB yields plunged 25bps, dragging global bond yields lower and weakening the yen by a percent. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) triggered the move with a rare Monday evening questionnaire that was sent to primary dealers and institutional investors.
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    13 mins
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