Episodes

  • 129 - Frozen Flashpoints: Greenland, Svalbard, and the Next Arctic Standoff

    129 - Frozen Flashpoints: Greenland, Svalbard, and the Next Arctic Standoff
    Mar 11 2025
    The last few months have seen major shifts in the balance of power in the far north, with the US making threats toward Greenland, Russia exerting pressure on Svalbard, and Arctic shipping routes, once seen as a counterweight to the Suez Canal, are now increasingly having their viability called into question. So as Greenland heads to the polls, the territory finds itself voting on far more than just a new legislature; instead deciding on the makeup of a future arctic flashpoint that could see NATO facing pressures from both the east and the west. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to analyse how we arrived at this position, the economic factors most people overlook when discussing the Arctic, and how likely these geopolitical tensions are to escalate into conflict. On the panel this week: - Jennifer Spence (Harvard Belfer Center) - Nicolas Jouan (RAND Europe) - Sigbjørn Halsne (Norwegian Armed Forces) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:06 PART II - 28:54 PART III - 49:15 Outro - 1:19:54 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 30 mins
  • 128 - Timor Leste's Fading Sunrise

    128 - Timor Leste's Fading Sunrise
    Jan 30 2025
    Timor-Leste stands at a crossroads, grappling with the legacies of Indonesian occupation, economic dependence on dwindling oil reserves, and the encroaching geopolitical pressures shaping its future. Once heralded as a success story of post-colonial independence, the country now faces mounting economic challenges, political stagnation, and an uncertain path toward ASEAN integration. Can Timor-Leste successfully diversify its economy before its oil wealth runs dry? Will its growing ties with China raise alarm bells in Canberra and Jakarta? And how do its historical struggles inform its current trajectory? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Michael Leach (Swinburne University) - Parker Novak (Atlantic Council) - Josh Kurlantzick (The Council on Foreign Relations) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:24 PART II - 27:03 PART III - 56:12 Outro - 1:08:38 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 18 mins
  • 127 - Sunk Cost: The US. Navy's Shipbuilding Crisis

    127 - Sunk Cost: The US. Navy's Shipbuilding Crisis
    Dec 23 2024
    Many of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding programs are currently running over budget and behind schedule, raising serious concerns about the Navy's future operational strength and the broader capacity of U.S. industry to scale production in the event of a larger conflict. This situation is particularly troubling, given that the United States once held a dominant position in global shipbuilding. So how did the U.S. reach this position, and who is to blame? Is it the Navy, the shipbuilders, private capital, the Pentagon, or even Congress? To unpack these pressing questions, we bring in our panel of experts to analyse the root causes of this decline and explore what can be done to restore the United States’ shipbuilding capabilities. On the panel this week: - John Konrad (GCaptain) - Emma Salisbury (War on the Rocks) - Matthew Funaiole (CSIS) - Thomas Shugart (CNAS) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:04 PART II - 33:53 PART III - 1:02:57 PART IV - 1:22:12 Outro - 1:45:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    2 hrs and 2 mins
  • The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Part 2 : Wargaming Regional Conflicts

    The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Part 2 : Wargaming Regional Conflicts
    Nov 28 2024
    As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force. Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia. On the panel this week: Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:57 PART II - 1:02:23 PART III - 1:45:30 Outro - 2:10:09 Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow our project partners on @OxusSociety and @ForecastIntl Support the show at: / theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    2 hrs and 21 mins
  • 126 - Armenia’s Changing Relationship with Russia

    126 - Armenia’s Changing Relationship with Russia
    Oct 24 2024
    The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities. On the panel this week: - Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst) - Laurence Broers (Chatham House) - Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 05:24 PART II - 27:36 PART III - 58:08 Outro - 1:21:38 Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 33 mins
  • 125 - The Economics of Conscription

    125 - The Economics of Conscription
    Sep 17 2024
    Conscription is a complex and multifaceted issue, influencing not only a nation's defence capabilities but also its economy and political landscape. With countries as diverse as Denmark, to the DRC, from Taiwan to Tajikistan, and even Austria to Armenia, having all adopted conscription. However, as different as each of these nations are, each of them is now facing unique challenges, constraints, impacts and benefits from the practice. So what are the true economic advantages and drawbacks of conscription, should countries like the US, the UK and Germany be looking at its reimplementation, and can it serve as an effective deterrent in modern conflicts? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul O'Neill (RUSI) - Pvt. Gona (Conscript in the Finnish Army) - Eric Crampton (New Zealand Initiative) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:51 PART 2 - 28:47 PART 3 - 43:13 Outro - 56:39 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 7 mins
  • 124 - The Rise of Chinese Private Security Companies (PSCs and PMCs)

    124 - The Rise of Chinese Private Security Companies (PSCs and PMCs)
    Aug 26 2024
    Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are beginning to expand their influence in the global security market, with thousands of these companies now operating in over 40 countries. Despite legal restrictions preventing them from being armed, these firms are increasingly finding ways to circumvent such regulations. This raises critical questions: Will China leverage these companies to bypass international rules, engage in grey-zone combat, or establish footholds for future military bases abroad? We delve into these issues with our expert panel. On the panel this week: - Carl Peterson (Militant Wire) - Nick Thompson (Anduril) - Alessandro Arduino (King’s College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:38 PART 2 - 30:11 PART 3 - 45:35 Outro - 59:02 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 8 mins
  • 123 - What the Venezuelan Election Means for Essequibo

    123 - What the Venezuelan Election Means for Essequibo
    Jul 31 2024
    Venezuela has been thrust into chaos following the recent election, leaving President Maduro, the opposition, and the military cornered. Years of escalating tensions with Guyana over the Essequibo region have reached a critical point, risking both the strength of the Venezuelan military and the possibility of a broader regional conflict. This episode examines the buildup to potential war, how the election has intensified these events, and whether the Venezuelan military can fulfil Maduro's promise of forcefully annexing Guyana? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Kejal Vyas (Wall Street Journal) - Gisela Salim-Peyer (The Atlantic) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:08 PART 2 - 30:44 PART 3 - 45:37 Outro - 1:14:47 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    1 hr and 25 mins