The SPY Trader Podcast By Manoj Sharma cover art

The SPY Trader

The SPY Trader

By: Manoj Sharma
Listen for free

About this listen

 Welcome to ’The SPY Trader,’ your essential audio resource for trading insights. Broadcasting every few hours, our podcast delivers timely summaries of critical news impacting the markets, expert analysis, and trading recommendations. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting, tune in to stay ahead of market trends and refine your trading strategy with actionable insights. This podcast is AI-generated. Disclaimer: The information provided on ’The SPY Trader’ podcast is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and decisions should be based on your own due diligence and consultation with a professional financial advisor where appropriate. The creators of ’The SPY Trader’ assume no responsibility for any financial losses or gains you may incur as a result of information presented on this podcast. Listener discretion is advised.Copyright 2024 All rights reserved. Economics Personal Finance Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Market Milestones: Navigating Record Highs

    Market Milestones: Navigating Record Highs
    Jul 5 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1287. Hey there, traders and investors! Welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for understanding the pulse of the market. I'm your host, Money Mike, and it's 6 pm on Friday, July 4th, 2025, here on the Pacific Coast. We’ve got a lot to unpack from a truly eventful period in the markets, so let's dive right in. First up, our market recap. The U.S. stock market has been on an absolute tear, particularly in the second quarter of 2025. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have recently hit fresh record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is hot on their heels, nearing its own alltime peak. For the week ending July 3rd, the Dow climbed 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 gained 1.7 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.6 percent. June was a fantastic month, with the Dow up 4 percent, the S&P 500 surging 5 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge with a 6 percent gain. Looking at the second quarter, it was the best for U.S. stocks in over a year, with the S&P 500 jumping 10.6 percent and the Nasdaq Composite soaring 17.8 percent. Even the smallcap Russell 2000 advanced 8.3 percent. While the first half of 2025 was a bit more mixed overall, described as 'tepid' for the major indexes, the S&P 500 remarkably recovered from a near 20 percent decline earlier in the year to finish the half up 5.5 percent. This resilience is truly something to watch. In terms of sectors, Industrials led gains with a 15.4 percent surge in the first half, followed by Technology at 11.6 percent, and Utilities at 11.0 percent. The Information Technology sector specifically had a very strong June, returning 9.8 percent. On the flip side, Consumer Discretionary fell 2.3 percent and Energy declined 0.2 percent in the first half of 2025. The AI rally, which has been a major theme, is broadening out beyond just the megacap tech giants, now reaching into related areas like electrification, data storage, and infrastructure. Now, for the macroeconomic conditions that are shaping this landscape. A strongerthanexpected June jobs report really boosted confidence, with U.S. employers adding 147,000 jobs, beating expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1 percent. This has significantly reduced recession concerns, with the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 falling from 65 percent in May to just 22 percent in July. However, this robust labor market has also dampened expectations for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Fed is holding its key policy rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent, stating they need more time to assess tariff impacts. That said, Fed officials still anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, likely resuming in the fall. Following the jobs report, the yield on the 10year Treasury note rose to 4.34 percent, and the twoyear Treasury yield jumped to 3.88 percent, reflecting expectations for rates to stay higher for longer. Trade policy is another big one. There’s optimism following an agreement with Vietnam to reduce tariffs, but uncertainty remains as a 90day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9th. This could mean higher levies on goods from countries without new trade deals. The recently approved 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which includes fiscal stimulus through tax cuts and increased spending, further supports the Fed's cautious stance on rates, but tariffs also pose a risk of elevated inflation. Geopolitically, easing tensions in the Middle East have also added to the positive market outlook. On the company front, we've seen some big movers. Datadog, ticker DDOG, saw its shares surge between 14.9 and 15 percent after S&P Global announced its inclusion in the S&P 500 index effective July 9th. Solar and semiconductor firms had a good run too, with First Solar, FSLR, up 8.5 percent, and Enphase Energy, ENPH, gaining 3.9 percent. Similarly, semiconductor design software firms Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, and Synopsys, SNPS, rose after the U.S. government lifted restrictions on exporting certain software to China. Oracle, ORCL, shares jumped over 8 percent to new alltime highs on news of a reported 30 billion dollar data deal win and strong growth in its MultiCloud database revenue. Not all sectors were shining though. Centene, CNC, shares plummeted almost 40 percent after the company withdrew its fullyear guidance due to weak growth and higherthanexpected costs. This negative news impacted other healthcare insurers like UnitedHealth, UNH, and Elevance Health, ELV. Tesla, TSLA, had a volatile week, ending slightly down and showing an 8.3 percent decline in June, contributing to a 21 percent yeartodate drop. Investors are really waiting for updates on its robotaxi expansion during the upcoming secondquarter earnings call. So, what does all this mean for you, the savvy investor? The current state of the U.S. stock market is a fascinating mix of strong economic fundamentals and ongoing policy uncertainties. The primary ...
    Show more Show less
    10 mins
  • Market’s Holiday Highs

    Market’s Holiday Highs
    Jul 4 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1286. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the daily ups and downs of the market! I'm your host, Captain Bullish, and it's 12 pm on Friday, July 4th, 2025, Pacific Time. Happy Independence Day, everyone! The US stock market is closed today in observance of the holiday, but we've got plenty to recap from the shortened week and what to look forward to when trading resumes on Monday, July 7th.Let's dive into the key news items that shaped the market this past week. Leading up to the holiday, the US stock market ended with solid gains, with all major indices hitting new highs. The S&P 500 closed at 6,279.35 on Thursday, up 0.83%, and even touched a new alltime high of 6,284.65. It's up 1.7% for the week and nearly 7% yeartodate, hitting alltime highs on four of the past five trading days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77% to 44,828.53, recording its third straight week of gains, and is just 0.4% shy of its December 4th record. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02% to a new record high of 20,601.10. However, the Russell 2000, representing smallcap stocks, has shown mixed performance, currently trading 10% below its November 2021 peak and flat yeartodate, significantly underperforming the larger indices.Sectorwise, the market rally has broadened beyond just big tech. Industrial stocks led gains with a 15.4% surge in the first half of 2025, followed by Technology at 11.6%, and Utilities up 11.0%. On the flip side, Consumer Discretionary fell 2.3% and Energy declined 0.2%.Looking at recent news, we got a strongerthanexpected jobs report for June on July 3rd, showing the US economy added 147,000 jobs, beating predictions. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%, the lowest since February, which reinforced hopes of continued economic strength and eased recession concerns. However, the average hourly wages rose 0.2% from May, and 3.7% yearoveryear, coming in cooler than expected. Another significant factor is the looming
    Show more Show less
    3 mins
  • Records, Rates, and Resilience

    Records, Rates, and Resilience
    Jul 4 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1285. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dive into what's moving the markets! I'm your host, Chet Gainsville, and it's 6 am on Friday, July 4th, 2025, Pacific time. Happy Independence Day, everyone! Just a friendly reminder that the U.S. stock market is closed today for the holiday, and it also closed early on Thursday, July 3rd. We'll be back to regular trading hours on Monday, July 7th. But even with the market taking a breather, there's plenty to talk about from the robust activity leading up to the long weekend. The U.S. equity markets have been showing significant strength, with major indices hitting new highs. On Thursday, July 3rd, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted substantial gains. Looking back over the past month, the S&P 500, or US500, climbed 5.25% and is up an impressive 12.28% compared to this time last year. For the second quarter of 2025, the S&P 500 gained 10.6%, and the Nasdaq surged an incredible 17.7%, both closing at record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a solid 5.0% gain. However, it's worth noting that smallcap U.S. stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, have continued to struggle, remaining down 2.5% yeartodate as of the end of Q2. Sector performance paints an interesting picture. Technology was the top performer in Q2, gaining 23%, driven by robust AIdriven earnings momentum from companies like Nvidia and Synopsys. This was further bolstered by the White House's decision to lift export restrictions on chipdesign software to China. Basic Materials led the week ending July 3rd, up 3.59%, with Financial Services also performing well, up 2.64%. On the flip side, Utilities and Communication Services were the worstperforming sectors in the week ending July 3rd. Energy and Health Care both saw declines of 8% and 7% respectively in Q2. Homebuilders like Lennar and D.R. Horton experienced declines, likely due to concerns about elevated interest rates making mortgages more expensive. Shifting to recent news and macroeconomic conditions, the June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, reinforcing the view of a resilient U.S. economy. While wage increases are outpacing inflation, supporting consumer spending, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% throughout Q2. Some forecasts anticipate two more rate cuts in the second half of 2025, but that strongerthanexpected jobs report has tempered expectations for immediate cuts. Core inflation is projected to be in the 3.0% to 3.5% range by yearend 2025. On the fiscal front, the nearfinal House approval of President Trump's $3.4 trillion taxandspending bill is a significant development. Trade and geopolitics have also played a role. Easing fears around tariffs and progress on trade deals, such as a U.S.Vietnam trade agreement, have bolstered market optimism. The U.S. dollar experienced a downward trend in Q2, which acts as a tailwind for U.S. exporters. However, real GDP growth expectations for 2025 were revised lower to 1.4%, and the U.S. economy experienced a 0.5% contraction in Q1 2025, the first decline since 2022. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit also increased in May 2025 to $71.5 billion. On the company front, Nvidia continued its strong performance, gaining 1.3% and approaching a $4 trillion market capitalization. Datadog shares soared by 10% to 15% following its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 index. However, Centene shares plummeted almost 40% after the company pulled its fullyear guidance, dragging down other major healthcare insurers like UnitedHealth and Elevance Health. Oracle jumped over 8% to new alltime highs after confirming a $30 billion data deal. Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Texas, but its shares fell 8.3% in June. Finally, solar stocks like Array Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun saw significant gains after the Senate passed President Trump's spending bill without an excise tax on solar or wind projects. Sunrun specifically gained 40.99% and SolarEdge Technologies was up 39.02%. Now, for some analysis and insights into what all this means for your portfolio. The U.S. stock market's recent robust performance and record highs are primarily driven by a resilient labor market, easing trade tensions, and the continued strong performance in the technology sector, particularly related to artificial intelligence. That betterthanexpected June jobs report certainly boosted investor confidence, suggesting our economy can withstand higher interest rates for longer. The deescalation of tariff policies has also reduced economic uncertainty, creating a more favorable environment for multinational corporations and exporters. And of course, the AI boom continues to fuel earnings momentum for chip designers and software companies. ...
    Show more Show less
    12 mins
No reviews yet