Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Thursday, October 31, 2024. This is Nelson John, wishing you a very happy Diwali.

As we step into Samvat 2081, speculation is rife about whether the Sensex can breach the 100,000 mark by March 2025. A Mint survey, reported by Mayur Bhalerao, reveals a split verdict among analysts: about half expect it to reach the milestone, driven by robust corporate earnings and steady foreign inflows, while others remain cautious, citing global uncertainties. Market volatility is now the new normal, with most experts anticipating a turbulent stretch ahead—marked by a potential correction followed by a gradual recovery toward the year-end. All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, with many expecting a rate cut in December, which could provide a timely lift to Indian markets.

Diwali brings a unique tradition to India's stock market with Muhurat Trading, where the National Stock Exchange and the BSE will light up for a special one-hour session from 6-7 pm this Friday. This auspicious hour marks the start of the Hindu calendar year, Samvat 2081. Since last Diwali, the Nifty 50 has surged 25%, buoyed by strong GDP growth, robust corporate earnings, and plentiful liquidity. Which sectors have beaten the benchmark, which stocks have been the winners and laggards, and what can investors expect in the medium term? Abhinaba Saha brings a recap of Samvat 2080.

Europe’s largest paint maker is planning to exit its India business. Anirudh Laskar reports that Akzo Nobel is eyeing a ₹25,000 crore valuation for the sale, with Citigroup managing the transaction. Among the potential bidders are Adani, Aditya Birla, JSW, and Asian Paints. While Asian Paints already owns a 4% stake in Akzo Nobel’s Indian arm, any acquisition bid may attract regulatory scrutiny, given its dominant position in the market.

India is positioning itself as the next hub for artificial intelligence. Major players like Nvidia and Meta have already set up operations and are optimistic about India’s role in shaping the AI landscape. However, the government's push for indigenous development presents both challenges and opportunities for global firms. Leslie D'monte writes that initiatives like Viksit Bharat offer tech giants a platform to collaborate with local companies, fostering research and job creation. High-profile visits from tech leaders reflect this growing momentum, while Indian firms are also making strides with localised AI models.

In India, where privacy is a coveted luxury, the hotel industry is evolving to cater to the ultra-wealthy. A prime example is Arq by The Leela—a collection of exclusive villas that debuted in Udaipur this month, offering unparalleled seclusion. Despite its premium pricing, demand for these opulent stays remains strong. The luxury travel sector has seen a robust post-pandemic revival, with India's spending on luxury travel hitting $10 billion in 2022. High-end properties are driving this growth, with 39% of the country’s branded hotel rooms classified as upscale or luxury, reports Varuni Khosla.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Wednesday, October 30, 2024. My name is Nelson John. Let's get started.

As Sebi comes down hard on futures and options trading, the National Stock Exchange is seeing fewer trades. Turnover and trades on the NSE have hit a six-month low. Ram Sahgal writes that average daily turnover fell nearly 12% to ₹1.07 trillion in October, with only 734.3 million trades taking place. Market experts said that Sebi's incoming clampdown on F&O trading is the main reason for the decline. Additionally, increased selling by foreign investors has contributed to a pessimistic market sentiment.

Swiggy is gearing up to “deliver” an IPO in early November. The quick commerce company is eyeing a valuation of $11.3 billion with a price band of ₹371-390 p er share. The IPO spells huge gains for Swiggy’s early backers like Accel, Apoletto, and Elevation Capital, with returns possibly soaring up to 35 times their initial investments, reports Priyamvada C. The IPO will be a mix of ₹4,499 crore in fresh issues and a secondary sale of 175.1 million shares. Swiggy is looking to expand its quick commerce arm, Instamart, and scale up its network of dark stores. As Swiggy steps into the public market, it's set against the backdrop of its rival Zomato's recent profitability and booming market cap.

Bharti Airtel recently announced a unique CEO transition plan with a 14-month wait before the new chief takes the helm on January 1, 2026. This prolonged handover period raises questions: What’s the ideal CEO transition time? Shelley Singh tackles that question in today’s Primer. Traditionally, CEO transitions can vary. For instance, Starbucks and Boeing witnessed rapid transitions due to performance crises, with new CEOs stepping in within a month. However, planned transitions generally allow six months to a year for a new CEO to settle in, providing clarity on a company’s direction to investors and employees.

India and Canada are at loggerheads. Diplomatic tensions between the two nations have affected geopolitics and harmed their trade. Previously on an upward trajectory, trade has dropped from last year's total to $3.38 billion in the first five months of this fiscal year. India's imports from Canada and exports both saw minor reductions, contributing to a widening trade deficit, reports Rhik Kundu. This slowdown in trade comes at a time when global trade is generally muted due to economic slowdowns in major economies and geopolitical tensions.

It's tough to grow out of your parent company's shadow. Peak XV (pronounced fifteen) Partners is experiencing just that. The venture capital firm is experiencing a decline in brand value since it was hived off from global brand Sequoia last year. Shelley Singh writes that despite inheriting assets worth $9.2 billion, Peak XV recently announced a reduction of 16% in its growth fund. It also reduced its management fees, reflecting a diminished brand prestige. Its leaders assert that such a move is necessary to remain competitive, and maintain that the firm's image and economics are still unparalleled.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Tuesday, October 29, 2024. My name is Nelson John, wishing all our listeners a very happy Dhanteras. Let's get started.

Inflation, no more? That's what the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, thinks. In a recent economic review, the IMF declared that the global battle against inflation has "largely been won". That means that most countries across the globe have either met or are very close to their inflation targets. N. Madhavan explains that despite that, growth forecasts remain low. Projections for global economic growth have stabilised at 3.2% in 2024, slightly down from 3.3% in 2023. With a growth rate of 7%, India fares well in this aspect. However, global risks such as geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and potential economic slowdowns remain significant — hence the low growth projections.

When the Indian government liberalised the economy in 1991, domestic conglomerates were worried: a sudden change challenged their collective dominance. That was 30 years ago. Safe to say, the dominance of empires like Reliance, Tata, Adani, and Kotak, among others has assuaged those fears. Our partners at How India Lives . com write that corporate India had a resurgence in the late 2010s, led by a huge influx of cash. As banks ran out of credible entities to loan money to, India Inc. stepped up — and never looked back. Ultimately, they conclude that conglomerates aren't going anywhere, anytime soon, while the medium-sized ones might have to reconsider their positions, or perish.

RBI is set to boost its digital security measures by introducing an AI-driven early warning system. This system will be designed to alert users to potential financial fraud during transactions. The initiative aims to tackle emerging threats in the digital finance space by leveraging AI to analyze data, identify high-risk platforms, and notify users of suspicious activities in real time. Subhash Naryan reports that this system will build on existing technologies like the MuleHunter AI, which detects mule accounts used in fraud schemes.

The government is planning to shift its strategy for PSUs. Instead of rushing to sell them off, the government now wants to work on their operational efficiency and governance, reports Gulveen Aulakh. The plan, sources told Gulveen, focuses on transforming these PSUs into professionally managed entities capable of yielding substantial dividends and potentially achieving higher market valuations through future public listings. In recent initiatives, specific PSUs like Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd are receiving targeted interventions to address their financial and operational challenges, with plans ranging from restructuring packages to debt resolution strategies.

The Open Network for Digital Commerce is launching an initiative to deliver groceries and other items within 30 minutes to two hours. The government-backed e-commerce network is looking to tap into the growing popularity of quick commerce in India, Sowmya Ramasubramanian reports. This move will involve collaborations with ElasticRun, Ola, and PhonePe’s buyer app Pincode, utilizing their dark stores and delivery networks to enable rapid delivery services.