Welcome to the October 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: being in the room with good investors, geopolitical risks, oil & energy shortages and follow up to September 2024 ramblings on probabilities.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:29] Being in the room with good investors

[6:35] Geopolitical risks

[11:16] Oil/energy shortage

[15:06] Follow up to September 2024 ramblings on probabilities

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Chris Waller, Founder and CIO at Plural Investing, joins the podcast for the second time to discuss his thesis on The Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG.LN), an international retailer of world leading luxury watch brands with a growing complement of luxury jewelry brands.

For more information about Plural Invest, please visit: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/

Plural Investing write up on $WOSG: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/research

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:26] What is The Watches of Switzerland Group and why is it so interesting?

[5:52] What is Chris seeing that the market is missing about $WOSG opportunity?

[8:25] Why is current valuation compelling? Retailer valuations

[12:05] Rolex relationship

[19:54] Margin and Rolex business model / other examples of symbiotic supplier-retailer relations where the retailer makes so much of the profit

[28:29] Multi-brand stores, Rolex dictates where their brand is located in the store

[31:57] Final thoughts on Rolex relationship

[35:06] Why doesn't Rolex sell online

[38:08] Concerns about Rolex brands because of greater production / does Rolex resonate with new generations, brand lasticity

[43:28] How is Rolex advertised these days

[45:28] How does Chris think about the growth algorithm for the company / bridging the gap between $WOSG opening new stores and most Rolex watches bought at mom-and-pops that are shutting down

[50:14] Why shouldn't this be owned by PE

[54:00] Capital allocation

[57:15] Any additional risks / misconception about Chinese tourism with Rolex

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Kyle Mowery, Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager at GrizzlyRock Capital, joins the podcast for the third time to discuss his thesis on Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: DRVN), an automotive services company in North America, providing a range of consumer and commercial automotive needs, including paint, collision, glass, vehicle repair, oil change, maintenance and car wash

To see the full DRVN deck, see: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GrizzlyRock-Driven-Brands-Write-Up-October-2024.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:05] What is Driven Brands Holdings and why is it so interesting?

[3:38] What is Kyle seeing that the market is missing with $DRVN

[7:20] $DRVN trading history and what caused this dislocation that gives the perceived opportunity here

[11:59] What protects $DRVN from oversupply (oil change services) problem?

[16:37] Why is the brand and scale beneficial to Driven/Take 5?

[18:35] $DRVN valuation / why do they not report Take 5 numbers separately?

[24:59] How does Kyle view Roark's ownership of the company

[28:23] Capital allocation

[34:01] EV Risk

[38:03] Glass and Collision segments

[46:45] Path for Car Wash

[51:44] $DRVN bear case

[56:50] Final thoughts

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, is back on the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: overall thoughts on coal at this point September 2024, vision for coal with AI, met coal, upcoming election, Peabody $BTU 13D, $CEIX $ARCH merger and more!

You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder

Matt Warder's first appearance on YAVP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF0uGS4swLM

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:31] Where we are in the overall coal market

[4:38] Coal for AI overview

[12:18] Overall supply/demand for Metallurgical "met" coal

[17:35] How does the election affect coal market

[21:31] Vision for Coal and AI, how does coal morph into an AI play

[30:26] AI arms race and building AI data centers, timeline to building this AI / Coal power play and how should folks think about new coal plants in America

[35:21] Final thoughts on AI and Coal

[38:31] Peabody $BTU 13D

[46:40] Peabody and Consol Energy / Arch Resource merger conference calls; why are management communicating this way

[49:16] Insider ownership in Coal stocks

[55:37] Other levers that could be pulled to unlock value in PRB

[59:38] How to think about met coal stocks right now and their performance

[1:03:21] $BTU corporate action ideas

[1:05:45] Comments on $CEIX $ARCH merger

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Welcome to the September 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: heavy selection bias, probabilities and waiting and how people value them, and returns on fame.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:36] What are the returns for folks focused on one company, one sector

[7:25] Probabilities and terminal 0's

[12:57] Returns on fame

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.

Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.

Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.

Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast to provide his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:20] Overview: his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case + Michael's comments on the judge

[6:25] Now that the trial is over, how the case went overall in Michael's opinion

[15:14] What were the reactions from those also in the courtroom with Michael

[20:36] Joe the Grocer testimony

[25:50] Due process arguments / price checking

[31:21] Experts, who was most believable

[40:01] What Michael saw and hear regarding CNS as a buyer / confidentiality (close courtroom to the gallery)

[45:11] Closing arguments / anything else jumped out to Michael from the trial

[49:44] Possible outcomes for the case / incentives for why each side wants their side to win

[57:05] Michael's guess on the odds of a preliminary injunction coming down here / is it more fun to listen to a well-reasoned case from both sides or more a Kangaroo-court style case

[1:00:54] Hot docs / final thoughts

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast for the second time to provide an update on his Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) thesis and Mitchell's thoughts on Magnite $MGNI.

For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/

First appearance on $CROX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzYLXDJZIaE

Podcast on $MGNI with Dan Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we2o8Jw7Hno

Ryan O'Connor's piece on $MGNI: https://www.crossroadscap.io/documents/trust-busting-update

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:36] Update on $CROX thesis

[4:22] How has Mitchell's views on whether $CROX is a fad changed (or not)

[7:26] Crocs' partnerships driving the brand

[10:05] Macro consumer, consumer weakness, anything of concern for $CROX / margins

[15:05] HeyDude acquisition

[21:00] What does Mitchell see that makes $CROX an alpha opportunity

[22:46] $CROX capital allocation moving forward / final thoughts on $CROX

[26:56] What is Magnite and why are value-oriented event investors on the small-cap side talking about to this company?

[30:45] What does Mitchell see that makes $MGNI an alpha opportunity

[35:06] $MGNI's Netflix and Disney deals

[38:17] Big customer wins squeeze take rates down for $MGNI?

[44:39] Why isn't $MGNI growing faster?

[47:53] Key to unlocking personalized ads on CTV streaming, is $MGNI key to this?

[52:19] $MGNI bear case / insider selling

[54:21] Google DOJ anti-trust case and how it affects $MGNI

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.

Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.

Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.

Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV

Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his third appearance to share his thesis on Dowlais Group Plc (DWL), a portfolio of market leading, high-technology engineering businesses that advance the world's transition to sustainable vehicles.

For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/

DWL write up on Value Situations Newsletter: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/dowlais-spinning-wheels

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:15] What is Dowlais Group Plc (DWL) and why are they interesting to Conor

[9:18] What is Conor seeing about Dowlais that the market is missing

[16:42] Dowlais recent history

[21:45] Trends in the auto industry

[27:43] Bidding war time from 2018

[32:29] Margin expansion

[38:03] Management and incentive structure

[49:08] Capital allocation scenarios

[53:25] Who's the buyer of Powdermet

[58:50] Cyclicality of Powdermet business?

[1:02:16] Final thoughts on Dowlais / one more question about goodwill on the balance sheet

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.