muckrAIkers

By: Jacob Haimes and Igor Krawczuk
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  • Summary

  • Join us as we dig a tiny bit deeper into the hype surrounding "AI" press releases, research papers, and more. Each episode, we'll highlight ongoing research and investigations, providing some much needed contextualization, constructive critique, and even a smidge of occasional good will teasing to the conversation, trying to find the meaning under all of this muck.
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Mathematics Science
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Episodes
  • The End of Scaling?

    The End of Scaling?
    Nov 19 2024
    Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an "end of scaling" for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of "AI".(00:23) - Hot off the press (01:49) - The end of scaling (10:50) - "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI" (17:19) - The end of quantization (25:18) - Hedging (29:41) - The end of upwards mobility (33:12) - How to grow an economy (38:14) - Transformative & disruptive tech (49:19) - Finding the meaning (56:14) - Bursting AI bubble and Trump (01:00:58) - The muckLinksThe Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements SlowsBloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AIReuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitationsPaper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for PrecisionTim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision"Empirical AnalysisWU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regionsIMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US RegionsNBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political PreferencesPew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?ForecastingNBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AINBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AIIMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of WorkSubmission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likelyExternalities and the Bursting BubbleNBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial MarketsClayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovationThe New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble BurstOn ProductizationPalantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defenseArs Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir dealOpenAI press release on partnering with Condé NastCandid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIAE2BStripe agentsRobopairOther SourcesCBS News article - Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die."Biometric Update article - Travelers to EU may be subjected to AI lie detectorTechcrunch article - OpenAI’s tumultuous early years revealed in emails from Musk, Altman, and othersRichard Ngo Tweet on leaving OpenAI
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    1 hr and 7 mins
  • US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024

    US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024
    Nov 6 2024

    October 2024 saw a National Security Memorandum and US framework for using AI in national security contexts. We go through the content so you don't have to, pull out the important bits, and summarize our main takeaways.

    • (00:48) - The memorandum
    • (06:28) - What the press is saying
    • (10:39) - What's in the text
    • (13:48) - Potential harms
    • (17:32) - Miscellaneous notable stuff
    • (31:11) - What's the US governments take on AI?
    • (45:45) - The civil side - comments on reporting
    • (49:31) - The commenters
    • (01:07:33) - Our final hero
    • (01:10:46) - The muck


    Links
    • United States National Security Memorandum on AI
    • Fact Sheet on the National Security Memorandum
    • Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security

    Related Media

    • CAIS Newsletter - AI Safety Newsletter #43
    • NIST report - Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile
    • ACLU press release - ACLU Warns that Biden-Harris Administration Rules on AI in National Security Lack Key Protections
    • Wikipedia article - Presidential Memorandum
    • Reuters article - White House presses gov't AI use with eye on security, guardrails
    • Forbes article - America’s AI Security Strategy Acknowledges There’s No Stopping AI
    • DefenseScoop article - New White House directive prods DOD, intelligence agencies to move faster adopting AI capabilities
    • NYTimes article - Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools
    • Forbes article - 5 Things To Know About The New National Security Memorandum On AI – And What ChatGPT Thinks
    • Federal News Network interview - A look inside the latest White House artificial intelligence memo
    • Govtech article - Reactions Mostly Positive to National Security AI Memo
    • The Information article - Biden Memo Encourages Military Use of AI

    Other Sources

    • Physical Intelligence press release - π0: Our First Generalist Policy
    • OpenAI press release - Introducing ChatGPT Search
    • WhoPoo App!!
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    1 hr and 16 mins
  • Understanding Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New)

    Understanding Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New)
    Oct 30 2024

    Frontier developers continue their war on sane versioning schema to bring us Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New), along with "computer use" capabilities. We discuss not only the new model, but also why Anthropic may have released this model and tool combination now.


    • (00:00) - Intro
    • (00:22) - Hot off the press
    • (05:03) - Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New) Two 'o' 3000
    • (09:23) - Breaking down "computer use"
    • (13:16) - Our understanding
    • (16:03) - Diverging business models
    • (32:07) - Why has Anthropic chosen this strategy?
    • (43:14) - Changing the frame
    • (48:00) - Polishing the lily

    Links

    • Anthropic press release - Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New)
    • Model Card Addendum

    Other Anthropic Relevant Media

    • Paper - Sabotage Evaluations for Frontier Models
    • Anthropic press release - Anthropic's Updated RSP
    • Alignment Forum blogpost - Anthropic's Updated RSP
    • Tweet - Response to scare regarding Anthropic training on user data
    • Anthropic press release - Developing a computer use model
    • Simon Willison article - Initial explorations of Anthropic’s new Computer Use capability
    • Tweet - ARC Prize performance
    • The Information article - Anthropic Has Floated $40 Billion Valuation in Funding Talks

    Other Sources

    • LWN.net article - OSI readies controversial Open AI definition
    • National Security Memorandum
    • Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security
    • Reuters article - Mother sues AI chatbot company Character.AI, Google over son's suicide
    • Medium article - A Small Step Towards Reproducing OpenAI o1: Progress Report on the Steiner Open Source Models
    • The Guardian article - Google's solution to accidental algorithmic racism: ban gorillas
    • TIME article - Ethical AI Isn’t to Blame for Google’s Gemini Debacle
    • Latacora article - The SOC2 Starting Seven
    • Grandview Research market trends - Robotic Process Automation Market Trends
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    1 hr and 1 min

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