Expert Political Judgment
How Good is it? How can We Know?
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Narrated by:
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Anthony Haden Salerno
About this listen
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting.
Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox - the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events - is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems.
He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the audiobook fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
©2005 Princeton University Press (P)2013 Audible, Inc.Listeners also enjoyed...
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- Length: 6 hrs and 16 mins
- Unabridged
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What is history, and why should we study it? Is there such a thing as historical truth? Is history a science? One of the most accomplished historians at work today, John Lewis Gaddis, answers these and other questions in this short, witty, and humane book. The Landscape of History provides a searching look at the historian's craft as well as a strong argument for why a historical consciousness should matter to us today.
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Excellent Book!
- By Billy on 09-15-18
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- By: Mark Buchanan
- Narrated by: Fleet Cooper
- Length: 10 hrs
- Unabridged
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Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- By J. Sterz on 04-18-17
By: Mark Buchanan
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Freedom Evolves
- By: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrated by: Robert Blumenfeld
- Length: 11 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
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Can there be freedom and free will in a deterministic world? Renowned philosopher Daniel Dennett emphatically answers "yes!" Using an array of provocative formulations, Dennett sets out to show how we alone among the animals have evolved minds that give us free will and morality. Weaving a richly detailed narrative, Dennett explains in a series of strikingly original arguments - drawing upon evolutionary biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, and philosophy - that far from being an enemy of traditional explorations of freedom, morality, and meaning, the evolutionary perspective can be an indispensable ally.
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I knew I was going to like this book
- By Gary on 05-30-14
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Big Gods
- How Religion Transformed Cooperation and Conflict
- By: Ara Norenzayan
- Narrated by: Paul Nixon
- Length: 8 hrs and 33 mins
- Unabridged
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How did human societies scale up from small, tight-knit groups of hunter-gatherers to the large, anonymous, cooperative societies of today - even though anonymity is the enemy of cooperation? How did organized religions with "Big Gods" - the great monotheistic and polytheistic faiths - spread to colonize most minds in the world? In Big Gods, Ara Norenzayan makes the surprising and provocative argument that these fundamental puzzles about the origins of civilization are one and the same, and answer each other.
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Great read
- By paro on 02-27-24
By: Ara Norenzayan
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- By: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- By rrwright on 05-30-18
By: Judea Pearl, and others
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Mindware
- Tools for Smart Thinking
- By: Richard E. Nisbett
- Narrated by: Joe Barrett
- Length: 10 hrs and 17 mins
- Unabridged
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Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home, work, and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behavior and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions.
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Sound scientific advice on how to live your life
- By Neuron on 08-26-15
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- By: Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Walter Dixon
- Length: 11 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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Future Babble Babble
- By Karen on 05-04-11
By: Dan Gardner
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Blind Spots
- Why We Fail to Do What’s Right and What to Do about It
- By: Max H. Bazerman, Ann E. Tenbrunsel
- Narrated by: Kate McQueen
- Length: 7 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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When confronted with an ethical dilemma, most of us like to think we would stand up for our principles. But we are not as ethical as we think we are. In Blind Spots, leading business ethicists Max Bazerman and Ann Tenbrunsel examine the ways we overestimate our ability to do what is right and how we act unethically without meaning to.
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Great book! Poor narration
- By Susie on 11-20-17
By: Max H. Bazerman, and others
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The Great Delusion
- Liberal Dreams and International Realities
- By: John J. Mearsheimer
- Narrated by: Noah Michael Levine
- Length: 9 hrs and 8 mins
- Unabridged
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In this major statement, the renowned international-relations scholar John Mearsheimer argues that liberal hegemony, the foreign policy pursued by the United States since the Cold War ended, is doomed to fail. It makes far more sense, he maintains, for Washington to adopt a more restrained foreign policy based on a sound understanding of how nationalism and realism constrain great powers abroad.
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Dense, fact filled, sober analysis and prescription
- By John Brynjolfsson on 12-15-18
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What listeners say about Expert Political Judgment
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Daniel Melgar
- 09-30-24
How to Think Objectively
This book is recommended for anyone who wants to improve their method of thinking. It is also recommended for anyone who wants to understand why our intuition cannot be the sole source of our thinking and methods.
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- Brittani
- 04-16-20
The narrator is as bad as the text is good
This book is amazing and should be read by every thoughtful person.
The narrator, on the other hand, is terrible. I listened as I read along within the book and was regularly distracted by his misreading words and his total inability to read logical notation. For example, he reads:
"~p" as "equivalent to p" and "(p is true | q is false)" as "p is true divided by q is false."
Such mistakes are simply inexcusable, especially for a high-level book like this.
That said, the text itself is absolutely amazing, but I can't imagine anybody really internalizing the message through audiobook alone.
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2 people found this helpful
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- John G. Strong
- 08-19-21
In noise her voice was like a whisper. Inaudible.
in the noisy environments it was completely impossible to understand this guy. I thought he was a hoarse woman at first
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- Technophobe01
- 02-19-23
A book I come back to time and again
This is an easy recommendation, the book covers the fascinating topic of assessing actual political prediction. It is a ground breaking work.
The backdrop used relates to Isaiah Berlins wonderful work ‘The Hedgehog and the Fox”, where Hedgehog’s focus and justify a single great idea, and Foxes incorporate many small ideas to predict future political outcomes.
The question asked is “ Which form is better?”, here we see a beautiful analysis of the different forms and approaches to political prediction against a backdrop of rigorous statistical analysis.
The results and observations are fascinating/ this this is a highly recommended read. Enjoy.
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- Henry Carr
- 03-13-15
Highly engaging. Listen at 2x speed
This was a fascinating book with a great respect for impartiality. He plays with conceptions within epistemology and provides satisfying sunlight on his approach, going deeply into the math. I found it best to listen to the conclusions and then here about his process, though he presents his discussion in the other order.
I found the readers voice unbearable at 1x speed. I strongly encourage at least 1.5x, if not 2x. For some reason, this really seemed to help.
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3 people found this helpful
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- Christian Tarsney
- 01-23-19
Five-star book, one-star reading
Groundbreaking and important book. But, while Tetlock argues convincingly that predicting the future is harder than we might think, predicting that the narrator will mispronounce the word “causal” at every opportunity remains disappointingly easy.
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3 people found this helpful
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- Anonymous User
- 01-06-22
This is not a book to listen to.
I loved “Superforecasting,” but found this book impossible to listen to while running, cleaning, or commuting to work. The book constantly references appendixes that ate mot readily available. Tetlock’s ideas in this book are best communicated through a 5-to10 page article. Tetlock spends hours restating his findings without offering anecdotes or a narrative to make this book entertaining.
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- AbdulRahman AbdulLatif
- 04-27-15
Not as expected
long-winded and very unstructured. Sounds if it was written for Academics not the public. Don't download.
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1 person found this helpful