
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Failed to add items
Add to Cart failed.
Add to Wish List failed.
Remove from wishlist failed.
Adding to library failed
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
$0.99/mo for the first 3 months

Buy for $19.95
No default payment method selected.
We are sorry. We are not allowed to sell this product with the selected payment method
-
Narrated by:
-
Joel Richards
About this listen
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download the accompanying reference guide.©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Listeners also enjoyed...
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Wasn't For Me
- By ❤️One.Crazy&Cool.Family❤️ on 09-04-18
By: Annie Duke
-
How Not to Be Wrong
- The Power of Mathematical Thinking
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 13 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
-
-
Great book but better in writing
- By Michael on 07-02-14
By: Jordan Ellenberg
-
Thinking, Fast and Slow
- By: Daniel Kahneman
- Narrated by: Patrick Egan
- Length: 20 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains....
-
-
Difficult Listen, but Probably a Great Read
- By Mike Kircher on 01-12-12
By: Daniel Kahneman
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 10 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Pass on this one and read The Black Swan
- By Wade T. Brooks on 06-25-12
-
Algorithms to Live By
- The Computer Science of Human Decisions
- By: Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths
- Narrated by: Brian Christian
- Length: 11 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
-
-
Great listen, just don't expect tips!
- By Adam Hosman on 08-07-17
By: Brian Christian, and others
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Wasn't For Me
- By ❤️One.Crazy&Cool.Family❤️ on 09-04-18
By: Annie Duke
-
How Not to Be Wrong
- The Power of Mathematical Thinking
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 13 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
-
-
Great book but better in writing
- By Michael on 07-02-14
By: Jordan Ellenberg
-
Thinking, Fast and Slow
- By: Daniel Kahneman
- Narrated by: Patrick Egan
- Length: 20 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains....
-
-
Difficult Listen, but Probably a Great Read
- By Mike Kircher on 01-12-12
By: Daniel Kahneman
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 10 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Pass on this one and read The Black Swan
- By Wade T. Brooks on 06-25-12
-
Algorithms to Live By
- The Computer Science of Human Decisions
- By: Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths
- Narrated by: Brian Christian
- Length: 11 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
-
-
Great listen, just don't expect tips!
- By Adam Hosman on 08-07-17
By: Brian Christian, and others
-
How Big Things Get Done
- The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between
- By: Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Rob Shapiro
- Length: 7 hrs and 16 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how the Empire State Building went from a sketch to the jewel of New York's skyline in twenty-one months, or how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to a product launch in eleven months.
-
-
Great on Project Mgmt But Uninformed on Renewables
- By Richard Redano on 03-09-23
By: Bent Flyvbjerg, and others
-
Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- By: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrated by: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Length: 13 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
-
-
Disappointing
- By Z28 on 05-31-21
By: Daniel Kahneman, and others
-
The Art of Thinking Clearly
- By: Rolf Dobelli
- Narrated by: Eric Conger
- Length: 7 hrs and 49 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity - all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable audiobook will change the way you think and transform your decision making - at work, at home, every day.
-
-
Major Downer
- By Daniel Ales on 01-22-20
By: Rolf Dobelli
-
Misbehaving
- The Making of Behavioral Economics
- By: Richard H. Thaler
- Narrated by: L. J. Ganser
- Length: 13 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans - predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth - and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.
-
-
Great book if it's your first about Behav. Econ
- By Jay Friedman on 09-30-15
-
Elon Musk
- By: Walter Isaacson
- Narrated by: Jeremy Bobb, Walter Isaacson
- Length: 20 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
When Elon Musk was a kid in South Africa, he was regularly beaten by bullies. One day a group pushed him down some concrete steps and kicked him until his face was a swollen ball of flesh. He was in the hospital for a week. But the physical scars were minor compared to the emotional ones inflicted by his father, an engineer, rogue, and charismatic fantasist.
-
-
megalomania on display
- By JP on 09-12-23
By: Walter Isaacson
-
Alpha Trader
- The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
- By: Brent Donnelly
- Narrated by: Brent Donnelly
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Trading is a chaotic, complex, and loosely-structured game played by the smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. It is the ultimate puzzle. Few can trade at an elite level for an extended period. The game is constantly changing and the rules, mechanics, and probabilities are difficult to observe and forever in flux. Just when you think you’ve got a plan: BAM.
-
-
Nothing special
- By JM on 04-09-24
By: Brent Donnelly
-
The Art of Execution
- How the World's Best Investors Get It Wrong and Still Make Millions
- By: Lee Freeman-Shor
- Narrated by: RJ Malyk
- Length: 3 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A riveting listen for investors of every level, this audiobook shows you exactly what to do and what not to do when your big idea is losing or winning - and demonstrates conclusively why the most important thing about investing is always the art of execution.
-
-
Horrible Read - Do not recommend
- By Amazon Customer on 03-01-21
By: Lee Freeman-Shor
-
Cybersecurity First Principles
- A Reboot of Strategy and Tactics
- By: Rick Howard
- Narrated by: Rick Howard
- Length: 9 hrs and 15 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Rick Howard, the Chief Security Officer, Chief Analyst, and Senior fellow at The Cyberwire, challenges the conventional wisdom of current cybersecurity best practices, strategy, and tactics and makes the case that the profession needs to get back to first principles.
-
-
Just What I was looking for
- By Roman on 11-17-24
By: Rick Howard
-
Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- By: Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Walter Dixon
- Length: 11 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
-
-
Future Babble Babble
- By Karen on 05-04-11
By: Dan Gardner
-
Originals
- How Non-Conformists Move the World
- By: Adam Grant, Sheryl Sandberg - foreword
- Narrated by: Fred Sanders, Susan Denaker
- Length: 10 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
With Give and Take, Adam Grant not only introduced a landmark new paradigm for success but also established himself as one of his generation’s most compelling and provocative thought leaders. In Originals he again addresses the challenge of improving the world, but now from the perspective of becoming original: choosing to champion novel ideas and values that go against the grain, battle conformity, and buck outdated traditions. How can we originate new ideas, policies, and practices without risking it all?
-
-
Interesting, but not science
- By Lloyd Fassett on 03-14-16
By: Adam Grant, and others
-
Left Brain, Right Stuff
- How Leaders Make Winning Decisions
- By: Phil Rosenzweig
- Narrated by: Christopher Lane
- Length: 8 hrs and 44 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
> Left Brain, Right Stuff takes up where other books about decision making leave off. For many routine choices, from shopping to investing, we can make good decisions simply by avoiding common errors, such as searching only for confirming information or avoiding the hindsight bias. But as Phil Rosenzweig shows, for many of the most important, more complex situations we face — in business, sports, politics, and more — a different way of thinking is required.
-
-
great book
- By ANA CABRAL on 05-11-19
By: Phil Rosenzweig
-
Willpower
- Rediscovering the Greatest Human Strength
- By: Roy F. Baumeister, John Tierney
- Narrated by: Denis O'Hare
- Length: 9 hrs and 6 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Pioneering research psychologist Roy F. Baumeister collaborates with New York Times science writer John Tierney to revolutionize our understanding of the most coveted human virtue: self-control. Drawing on cutting-edge research and the wisdom of real-life experts, Willpower shares lessons on how to focus our strength, resist temptation, and redirect our lives. It shows listeners how to be realistic when setting goals, monitor their progress, and how to keep faith when they falter.
-
-
Fantastic Content Applicable to Everyone
- By Anonymous User on 05-22-20
By: Roy F. Baumeister, and others
People who viewed this also viewed...
-
Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- By: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrated by: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Length: 9 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
-
-
Five-star book, one-star reading
- By Christian Tarsney on 01-23-19
-
The Success Equation
- Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Wes Talbot
- Length: 8 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives - yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative audiobook, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands.
-
-
Great clarity for sorting efforts and results
- By Philo on 01-16-13
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Wasn't For Me
- By ❤️One.Crazy&Cool.Family❤️ on 09-04-18
By: Annie Duke
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
-
Misbehaving
- The Making of Behavioral Economics
- By: Richard H. Thaler
- Narrated by: L. J. Ganser
- Length: 13 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans - predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth - and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.
-
-
Great book if it's your first about Behav. Econ
- By Jay Friedman on 09-30-15
-
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
- By: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
- Narrated by: Scott R. Pollak
- Length: 7 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis has been required reading for intelligence officers studying the art and science of intelligence analysis for decades. Richards Heuer, Jr. discusses in the audiobook how fundamental limitations in human mental processes can prompt people to jump to conclusions and employ other simplifying strategies that lead to predictably faulty judgments known as cognitive biases.
-
-
The author
- By ronco on 03-04-23
-
Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- By: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrated by: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Length: 9 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
-
-
Five-star book, one-star reading
- By Christian Tarsney on 01-23-19
-
The Success Equation
- Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Wes Talbot
- Length: 8 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives - yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative audiobook, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands.
-
-
Great clarity for sorting efforts and results
- By Philo on 01-16-13
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Wasn't For Me
- By ❤️One.Crazy&Cool.Family❤️ on 09-04-18
By: Annie Duke
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
-
Misbehaving
- The Making of Behavioral Economics
- By: Richard H. Thaler
- Narrated by: L. J. Ganser
- Length: 13 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans - predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth - and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.
-
-
Great book if it's your first about Behav. Econ
- By Jay Friedman on 09-30-15
-
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
- By: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
- Narrated by: Scott R. Pollak
- Length: 7 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis has been required reading for intelligence officers studying the art and science of intelligence analysis for decades. Richards Heuer, Jr. discusses in the audiobook how fundamental limitations in human mental processes can prompt people to jump to conclusions and employ other simplifying strategies that lead to predictably faulty judgments known as cognitive biases.
-
-
The author
- By ronco on 03-04-23
-
Moral Tribes
- Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them
- By: Joshua Greene
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 14 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A pathbreaking neuroscientist reveals how our social instincts turn Me into Us, but turn Us against Them - and what we can do about it. The great dilemma of our shrinking world is simple: never before have those we disagree with been so present in our lives. The more globalization dissolves national borders, the more clearly we see that human beings are deeply divided on moral lines - about everything from tax codes to sexual practices to energy consumption - and that, when we really disagree, our emotions turn positively tribal.
-
-
Good Science, Bad Philosophy
- By Jacob on 10-27-16
By: Joshua Greene
-
The Scout Mindset
- Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
- By: Julia Galef
- Narrated by: Julia Galef
- Length: 6 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a "soldier" mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don't.
-
-
An Excellent Book,
- By E&J on 04-16-21
By: Julia Galef
-
Algorithms to Live By
- The Computer Science of Human Decisions
- By: Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths
- Narrated by: Brian Christian
- Length: 11 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
-
-
Great listen, just don't expect tips!
- By Adam Hosman on 08-07-17
By: Brian Christian, and others
-
The Drunkard's Walk
- How Randomness Rules Our Lives
- By: Leonard Mlodinow
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 9 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In this irreverent and illuminating audiobook, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
-
-
Interested in statistics? This is the book.
- By Robert on 02-21-14
By: Leonard Mlodinow
-
How Not to Be Wrong
- The Power of Mathematical Thinking
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 13 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
-
-
Great book but better in writing
- By Michael on 07-02-14
By: Jordan Ellenberg
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- By: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
A dissapointing debut
- By Peter on 04-14-19
By: Shane Parrish
-
The Art of Thinking Clearly
- By: Rolf Dobelli
- Narrated by: Eric Conger
- Length: 7 hrs and 49 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity - all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable audiobook will change the way you think and transform your decision making - at work, at home, every day.
-
-
Major Downer
- By Daniel Ales on 01-22-20
By: Rolf Dobelli
-
Predictive Analytics
- The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die, Revised and Updated
- By: Eric Siegel
- Narrated by: Steven Menasche
- Length: 11 hrs and 6 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating—surprisingly accessible—introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book serves lay listeners and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.
-
-
2 hrs of content in 10hrs
- By Joseph on 07-08-20
By: Eric Siegel
-
Chaos Monkeys - Revised Edition
- Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley
- By: Antonio Garcia Martinez
- Narrated by: Dan John Miller
- Length: 16 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
One of Silicon Valley’s most audacious chaos monkeys is Antonio García Martínez. After stints on Wall Street and as CEO of his own startup, García Martínez joined Facebook’s nascent advertising team. Forced out in the wake of an internal product war over the future of the company’s monetization strategy, García Martínez eventually landed at rival Twitter. In Chaos Monkeys, this gleeful contrarian unravels the chaotic evolution of social media and online marketing and reveals how it is invading our lives and shaping our future.
-
-
Best Non-fiction (and entertaining frolic) I’ve listened to in years!
- By Martha Mangan on 09-22-19
-
The Hour Between Dog and Wolf
- Risk Taking, Gut Feelings, and the Biology of Boom and Bust
- By: John Coates
- Narrated by: Richard Powers
- Length: 10 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
A successful Wall Street trader turned Cambridge neuroscientist reveals the biology of boom and bust and how risk taking transforms our body chemistry, driving us to extremes of euphoria and risky behavior or stress and depression. The laws of financial boom and bust, it turns out, have more than a little to do with male hormones. In a series of groundbreaking experiments, Dr. John Coates identified a feedback loop between testosterone and success that dramatically lowers the fear of risk.
-
-
Amazing!
- By Gary C on 03-12-15
By: John Coates
-
Your Deceptive Mind: A Scientific Guide to Critical Thinking Skills
- By: Steven Novella, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Steven Novella
- Length: 12 hrs and 39 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
No skill is more important in today's world than being able to think about, understand, and act on information in an effective and responsible way. What's more, at no point in human history have we had access to so much information, with such relative ease, as we do in the 21st century. But because misinformation out there has increased as well, critical thinking is more important than ever. These 24 rewarding lectures equip you with the knowledge and techniques you need to become a savvier, sharper critical thinker in your professional and personal life.
-
-
Same Material Different Title
- By rkeinc on 09-21-14
By: Steven Novella, and others
-
Alpha Trader
- The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
- By: Brent Donnelly
- Narrated by: Brent Donnelly
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Trading is a chaotic, complex, and loosely-structured game played by the smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. It is the ultimate puzzle. Few can trade at an elite level for an extended period. The game is constantly changing and the rules, mechanics, and probabilities are difficult to observe and forever in flux. Just when you think you’ve got a plan: BAM.
-
-
Nothing special
- By JM on 04-09-24
By: Brent Donnelly
What listeners say about Superforecasting
Highly rated for:
Reviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Mark
- 11-26-15
Not totally pointless
I recently enrolled in a sports prediction ring with some friends and I chose this book because I wanted to see if it might give me some insights into the art/science of prediction in general. Clearly the focus of this book is not sport at all, but I thought there must be some generalizable, transferable aspects – and there are. But on the whole I’d say the book mainly matched my existing perceptions of how to predict the future, although I did pick up a few nice nuggets along the way and there was some value in the book’s confirmation of some things I felt already knew.
The author states that there is no such thing as fate and that everything is the result of happenstance and probability. For example, I know that my being born was the random product of the circumstances of my parents’ meeting, the fact that none of their parents were killed in World War 2, the arbitrary time and place where I was conceived and the incredible odds against me winning a sperm race. I've never believed that life is predetermined by fate or destiny. So this was not news to me at all.
So how do you make good predictions? A few things help: It helps to be numerate, to diligently study the subject matter in question, to update your predictions as circumstances change, to keep an open mind.
There were a few things I hadn’t realised, such as the fact that lay people predict the future just as well, if not better, than experts - as long as they do the necessary research – and also, that groups fare better than individuals. There is a kind of ‘emergent property’ of groups whereby the totality is greater than the sum of the parts, as long as the group members interact cooperatively.
Overall I’d say that this book is worth the read, but I predict with 73% certainty that I’ll have forgotten it in 6 months’ time.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
76 people found this helpful
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Kerad
- 11-19-15
Very interesting book with great narration.
This was a very interesting research with deep insights in a number of areas around how to perceive the world differently. The narration was clear and easily understandable. Highly recommended read.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
1 person found this helpful
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Mjkeefe
- 12-31-22
Interesting but boring
This book had interesting points, but the focus was too heavily on politics that some of the key messages were lost. It would have been nice to have more examples that were not so focused on politics.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
1 person found this helpful
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Lu Phillips
- 04-11-17
Expansive on the topic
I have judged myself as a weak forecaster for years. In my line of work too many fumbles can be career limiting but what to do with an obstical in your blind spot? This book was very helpful because I got to see my woldview on this was too narrow. Forecasting can, and should, be a whole life skill.
On the downside, I really needed more handholding with each element for each tool in order for the ah-ha moments to arrive. The obvious solution is to roll up my sleeves and get to work anyway.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Andreas
- 01-10-17
Balanced, smart and fair
Read Kahneman and Taleb before reading this book. But then enjoy this fantastic book and all it's wisdom!
Top 5 of the best books I ever read.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- John
- 06-11-16
Interesting Analysis
This is a really interesting book that compiles the author's research on the ability of people--many ordinary people--to become "super forecasters." The qualities of super forecasters turn out to be far from good intuition, but more the result of hard work, diligence, and, most importantly, a constant and dogged willingness to re-assess. This book should be required reading for anyone whose job involves forecasting, whether business, the economy or foreign affairs.
I did not give the book 5 stars for two reasons. First, it plods along in a few places. It could have used some pruning. Second, the authors' political leanings tend to show at some places, and I found that inappropriate for the subject.
All in all, though, an important work.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- John
- 02-02-16
Must read
This is a must read for anyone in the business of prediction, and I would argue that we all are.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Robert Walters
- 06-13-19
I suggest taking notes
This book manages to almost accidentally sum up a lot of key concepts from much harder and more difficult books (such as Thinking Fast and Slow). I'll be reading this one again.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Mark P.
- 03-26-21
Superinformative
One of the more informative books I've read in a long time. Provides a lot of supporting information about conclusions reached, including some math & statistics (but presented in a way that is easy to understand). Good narration.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- R. E. Miller
- 08-24-22
The audiobook loses points.
The audiobook loses points because there are charts and graphs that you're not able to see. The physical book would be a better choice. other than that it's five stars all the way!
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!