Perfect Bet
How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
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Narrated by:
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Jonathan Yen
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By:
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Adam Kucharski
About this listen
Bringing together ideas from mathematics, psychology, economics, and physics, The Perfect Bet traces the origins of successful betting methods.
From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
Kucharski reveals why winning at chess depends on luck - but victory in checkers does not - and why poker is one of the ultimate challenges for artificial intelligence. He also explores the difficulties of mimicking human behavior and explains what caused one hedge fund's rogue algorithm to lose them $400,000 per second in the summer of 2012.
©2016 Adam Kucharski. Recorded by arrangement with Basic Books, a member of the Perseus Books Group. (P)2016 HighBridge, a division of Recorded BooksListeners also enjoyed...
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Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- By J. Sterz on 04-18-17
By: Mark Buchanan
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Simple Rules
- How to Thrive in a Complex World
- By: Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt
- Narrated by: Jeff Cummings
- Length: 7 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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We struggle to manage complexity every day. We follow intricate diets to lose weight, juggle multiple remotes to operate our home entertainment systems, face proliferating data at the office, and hack through thickets of regulation at tax time. But complexity isn't destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there's a better way: by developing a few simple yet effective rules, you can tackle even the most complex problems.
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If you are in any sort of leadership position or plan to be, read this book
- By Rex on 06-09-15
By: Donald Sull, and others
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Sway
- The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior
- By: Rom Brafman, Ori Brafman
- Narrated by: John Apicella
- Length: 4 hrs and 52 mins
- Unabridged
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A Harvard Business School student pays over $200 for a $20 bill. Washington, D.C., commuters ignore a free subway concert by a violin prodigy. A veteran airline pilot attempts to take off without control-tower clearance and collides with another plane on the runway. Why do we do the wildly irrational things we sometimes do?
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Disappointing book
- By Martin Proulx on 12-10-08
By: Rom Brafman, and others
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- By: Gary Klein
- Narrated by: Christopher Lane
- Length: 9 hrs
- Unabridged
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Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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Not enough actionable ideas
- By Blair on 02-24-15
By: Gary Klein
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Super Crunchers
- Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
- By: Ian Ayres
- Narrated by: Michael Kramer
- Length: 7 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
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Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new audiobook, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers.
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Great book on
- By Jon on 01-31-08
By: Ian Ayres
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- By: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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A dissapointing debut
- By Peter on 04-14-19
By: Shane Parrish
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The Master Algorithm
- How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
- By: Pedro Domingos
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 13 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
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Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
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Great book, irritating narration
- By N. G. PEPIN on 09-24-15
By: Pedro Domingos
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- By: Justin Fox
- Narrated by: Alan Sklar
- Length: 13 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- By D. Martin on 06-29-12
By: Justin Fox
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Pricing the Future
- Finance, Physics, and the 300-Year Journey to the Black-Scholes Equation
- By: George Szpiro
- Narrated by: Brian Troxell
- Length: 10 hrs
- Unabridged
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Financial economist George G. Szpiro here tells the fascinating stories of the pioneers of mathematical finance who conducted the search for the elusive options pricing formula. From the broker's assistant who published the first mathematical explanation of financial markets to Albert Einstein and other scientists, Pricing the Future retraces the historical and intellectual developments that ultimately led to the widespread use of mathematical models to drive investment strategies on Wall Street.
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Petty details detract from the topic
- By Philo on 04-08-12
By: George Szpiro
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Whiplash
- How to Survive Our Faster Future
- By: Joi Ito, Jeff Howe
- Narrated by: James Foster
- Length: 7 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
Today, not only is everything digital getting faster, cheaper, and smaller at an exponential rate, we also have the Internet. When these two revolutions - one in technology and the other in communications - joined, an explosive force was unleashed that changed the very nature of innovation. And with any change, we have seen many strategic blunders and extraordinary learning curves along the way.
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Just general advice on how to survive
- By A. Yoshida on 09-01-17
By: Joi Ito, and others
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Good Overview of the original development
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Language defines us as a species, placing humans head and shoulders above even the most proficient animal communicators. But it also beguiles us with its endless mysteries, allowing us to ponder why different languages emerged, why there isn't simply a single language, how languages change over time and whether that's good or bad, and how languages die out and become extinct.
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In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory - the basis of computers and the Internet - to the problem of making as much money as possible as fast as possible.
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Wonderfully written!
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It has been nearly 100 years since the Apollo moon landings, when Jack and Vladimir, two astronauts on a mission to Venus, discover a mysterious void related to indigenous life on the planet. Subsequently more voids are detected on Earth, Mars, Titan, and, quite ominously, inside a planetoid emerging from the Kuiper belt. Jack is sent to investigate the voids in the Solar System and intercept the planetoid - which, as becomes increasingly clear, is inhabited by alien life forms.
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Essential Poker Math, Expanded Edition
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Poker math is a vitally important aspect to no-limit hold'em poker, but it's often overlooked or simply not used because many poker players fear it's too difficult to learn. I'm here to tell you it is not. In fact, fundamental poker math is very easy to learn. After listening to this book, you'll have mastered fundamental no-limit hold'em mathematics. You'll have gained a huge skill advantage over your opponents and will be able to effectively use math at the poker table to make profitable moves. Most importantly, you'll become a much better and profitable poker player!
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I am a Filthy casual...
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What listeners say about Perfect Bet
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- D. D.
- 04-05-24
Fascinating book, terrible reader
Excellent intro to the relationship between gambling, chance, probability, etc. The reader, however, is awful. He has a weird, snarky tone, mimics the accents of several historical figures in a cringeworthy way, which would have been completely unnecessary even if he had been good at them.
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- Amazon Customer
- 03-09-21
informative, dry
fascinating information on betting syndicates and probabilities in gambling but dry. worth it for some.
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- Mike F
- 04-28-21
Interesting
overall reasonable and interesting book about a subject of gambling and chance. Not brilliant, but not bad. Definitely worth the money and time.
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- Jefferson
- 07-19-18
breaks down lots of types of gambling
Very well written and lots of good information and perspectives .
A lot of information Regarding sports betting
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- Ivan Bezovan
- 05-11-17
Great book with interesting points of view
This is a great book for everyone who wants to learn more about the right way to approach sports betting and gambling. Very inspiring and informative read. Highly recommend it!
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- Gabriel Yiu
- 06-23-16
Great Narrative
The book has a very great way of telling you how scientific betting has evolved and become the standard today.
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- Philo
- 04-02-16
Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
This book is a sort of meandering introduction to many concepts in probability and some related maths and applications. It is only at turns about gambling, per se. It is written to be readable and entertaining and listenable (though the narrator's voice is a bit much on the "gee whiz," "oh shucks," "howdy doody" kind of 1950s tones). Sometimes it might seem unsure of what its own overall topic is, or pivot from one subject or vignette to the next inexplicably, but this is not bad, as a sort of broad intro to Claude Shannon, Ed Thorpe, and many other thinkers and tinkerers who have themselves meandered across the boundaries of probability, info theory, gambling and sometimes finance. Many concepts spanning across these areas are introduced and given simple, understandable definitions and story-based introductions, with no math rigor alongside it. (So, there are no worries about awkwardness in the audio format, as there might be with equations, etc.) But is is useful for getting at least a popularized sense of what these concepts are, and a path linking the thinkers and concepts together across time. Each of the more technical threads can be followed elsewhere.
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3 people found this helpful
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- Carlos P. Zilzer
- 04-05-16
Good story, very superficial
Would you recommend this book to a friend? Why or why not?
I will recommend this book to someone that likes the gambling subject. it tells some stories and explain that it is possible to beat some games with skills or technology.
What did you like best about this story?
All about horseracing in Hongkong and poker bots.
Any additional comments?
It is an interesting book to understand that luck is not always luck!
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1 person found this helpful
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- Nick
- 05-23-16
A great story spoiled
This is a great story of the role of science in gambling and vice versa. The narrator however, had an annoying habit of trying to imitate accents which distracted from the narrative.
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2 people found this helpful
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- Todd
- 11-23-16
Not much groundbreaking here
If you are looking for a very high level survey of various betting related topics (handicapping, botting/AI, game theory, the role of chance,etc) you might enjoy this. If you are looking for more meat I'd recommend scorecasting, fooled by randomness, or perhaps a Ben Mezrich book.
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2 people found this helpful