The Avoidable War
The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
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Narrated by:
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Kevin Rudd
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Rafe Beckley
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By:
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Kevin Rudd
About this listen
A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.
The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault - of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.
Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.
©2022 Kevin Rudd (P)2022 PublicAffairsListeners also enjoyed...
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Critic reviews
“A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today’s most thoughtful analysts of China’s development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China’s evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations.” (Henry A. Kissinger)
“Wise counsel from a seasoned statesman who recognizes the real risk of catastrophic war and illuminates a promising path the US and China could take to avoid it.” (Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?)
“An extraordinary tour de force that analyzes the most important geopolitical relationship of the 21st-century. Organized, like Dante’s Inferno, into concentric circles that describe in brilliant detail the challenges ahead and a timely prescription to avoid a catastrophe. Let us truly hope that we can indeed avoid a war that looms upon us like a dark tower, threatening all the progress we have made.” (Admiral James Stavridis, 16th supreme Allied commander of NATO, former dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)
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Forget the G-7 and the G-20; we are entering a leaderless "G- Zero" era- with profound implications for every country and corporation. The world power structure is facing a vacuum at the top. With the unifying urgency of the financial crisis behind us, the diverse political and economic values of the G-20 are curtailing the world's most powerful governments' ability to mediate growing global challenges. There is no viable alternative group to take its place.
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Well articulated and thought provoking
- By Mark on 08-09-12
By: Ian Bremmer
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The World
- A Brief Introduction
- By: Richard Haass
- Narrated by: Dan Woren
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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The World is designed to provide listeners of any age and experience with the essential background and building blocks they need to make sense of this complicated and interconnected world. It will empower them to manage the flood of daily news. Listeners will become more informed, discerning citizens, better able to arrive at sound, independent judgments. While it is impossible to predict what the next crisis will be or where it will originate, those who listen to The World will have what they need to understand its basics and the principal choices for how to respond.
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Excellent Primer for young adults
- By Howells on 05-24-20
By: Richard Haass
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The Third Revolution
- Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State
- By: Elizabeth C. Economy
- Narrated by: Jo Anna Perrin
- Length: 11 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Eminent China scholar Elizabeth C. Economy provides an incisive look at the transformative changes underway in China today. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has unleashed a powerful set of political and economic reforms: the centralization of power under Xi himself; the expansion of the Communist Party's role in Chinese political, social, and economic life; and the construction of a virtual wall of regulations to control more closely the exchange of ideas and capital between China and the outside world.
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A decent synopsis of Xi Jinping and his polices
- By Yoda on 04-29-19
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Windfall
- How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America's Power
- By: Meghan L. O'Sullivan
- Narrated by: Eliza Foss
- Length: 13 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
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As a new administration focuses on raising American energy production, O'Sullivan's Windfall describes how new energy realities have profoundly affected the world of international relations and security. New technologies led to oversupplied oil markets and an emerging natural gas glut. This did more than drive down prices. It changed the structure of markets and altered the way many countries wield power and influence.
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A super-sized editorial
- By Easycfp on 10-05-18
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The End of Power
- From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States, Why Being In Charge Isn't What It Used to Be
- By: Moises Naim
- Narrated by: Matt Kugler
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
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In The End of Power, award-winning columnist and former Foreign Policy editor Moisés Naím illuminates the struggle between once-dominant megaplayers and the new micropowers challenging them in every field of human endeavor. Drawing on provocative, original research and a lifetime of experience in global affairs, Naím explains how the end of power is reconfiguring our world.
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Another Power book
- By Anonymous User on 04-12-24
By: Moises Naim
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Destined for War
- Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
- By: Graham Allison
- Narrated by: Richard Ferrone
- Length: 12 hrs and 43 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
War with China is much more likely than anyone thinks. When Athens went to war with Sparta some 2,500 years ago, the Greek historian Thucydides identified one simple cause: A rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. As the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains, in the past 500 years, great powers have found themselves in "Thucydides's Trap" 16 times. In 12 of the 16, the results have been catastrophic.
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Balances, Counter-Balances and Traps
- By Joyce U. Olewe on 10-09-17
By: Graham Allison
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Putin's World
- Russia Against the West and with the Rest
- By: Angela Stent
- Narrated by: Kevin Stillwell
- Length: 15 hrs and 32 mins
- Unabridged
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Putin's World examines the country's turbulent past, how it has influenced Putin, the Russians' understanding of their position on the global stage and their future ambitions—and their conviction that the West has tried to deny them a seat at the table of great powers since the USSR collapsed.
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More like The West against the world
- By Felis N on 01-18-20
By: Angela Stent
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Making the Future
- Occupations, Interventions, Empire and Resistance
- By: Noam Chomsky
- Narrated by: Peter Johnson
- Length: 7 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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Making the Future presents more than 50 concise and persuasively argued commentaries on U.S. politics and policies, written between 2007 and 2011. Taken together, Chomsky's essays present a powerful counter-narrative to official accounts of the major political events of the past four years: the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; the U.S. presidential race; the ascendancy of China; Latin America's leftward turn; the threat of nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea; Israel's invasion of Gaza and more.
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Fifty-Two Reasons to Listen to Chomsky
- By Susie on 01-04-13
By: Noam Chomsky
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Hopes and Prospects
- By: Noam Chomsky
- Narrated by: Brian Jones
- Length: 11 hrs and 15 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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In this urgent new book, Noam Chomsky examines the dangers and prospects of our early 21st century. Exploring challenges such as the growing gap between North and South, American exceptionalism (including under President Obama), the fiascos of Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S.-Israeli assault on Gaza, and the recent recent financial bailouts, he also sees hope for the future. Chomsky surveys the democratic wave in Latin America and the growing global solidarity movements.
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An Intellectual Wind Tunnel
- By Cellar_Door_Books on 04-23-11
By: Noam Chomsky
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The Russia Trap
- How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe
- By: George Beebe
- Narrated by: L. J. Ganser
- Length: 7 hrs and 7 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Every American president since the end of the Cold War has called for better relations with Russia. But each has seen relations get worse by the time he left office. Now, the two countries are facing off in a virtual war being fought without clear goals or boundaries. Why? George Beebe argues that new game-changing technologies, disappearing rules of the game, and distorted perceptions on both sides are combining to lock Washington and Moscow into an escalatory spiral that they do not recognize.
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Too soft on Russia
- By Jim Flynn on 06-28-20
By: George Beebe
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Refuge
- Rethinking Refugee Policy in a Changing World
- By: Paul Collier, Alexander Betts
- Narrated by: Clive Chafer
- Length: 10 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Refuge seeks to restore moral purpose and clarity to refugee policy. Rather than assuming indefinite dependency, Collier - author of The Bottom Billion - and his Oxford colleague Betts propose a humanitarian approach integrated with a new economic agenda that begins with jobs, restores autonomy, and rebuilds people's ability to help themselves and their societies.
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Academic
- By Jonah on 09-30-19
By: Paul Collier, and others
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The Post-American World 2.0
- By: Fareed Zakaria
- Narrated by: Fareed Zakaria
- Length: 9 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Here is the New York Times and international best seller, revised and expanded with a new afterword. This is the essential update of Fareed Zakaria's analysis about America and its shifting position in world affairs. In this new edition, Zakaria makes sense of the rapidly changing global landscape. With his customary lucidity, insight, and imagination, he draws on lessons from the two great power shifts of the past 500 years - the rise of the Western world and the rise of the United States - to tell us what we can expect from the third shift, the rise of the rest.
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S/B req reading for every man, woman and child...
- By Kopernicus on 10-20-11
By: Fareed Zakaria
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From one of the most admired reporters covering China today comes a vital new account of the life and political vision of Xi Jinping, the authoritarian leader of the People’s Republic whose hard-edged tactics have set the rising superpower on a collision with Western liberal democracies. Party of One shatters the many myths that shroud one of the world’s most secretive political organizations and its leader. Many observers misread Xi during his early years in power, projecting their own hopes that he would steer China toward more political openness, rule of law, and pro-market economics.
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fresh perspective, grand strategic view
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Quality control issues
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The Party is Financial Times reporter Richard McGregor's eye-opening investigation into China's Communist Party, and the integral role it has played in the country's rise as a global superpower and rival to the United States. Many books have examined China's economic rise, human rights record, turbulent history, and relations with the US; none until now, however, have tackled the issue central to understanding all of these issues: how the ruling communist government works. The Party delves deeply into China's secretive political machine.
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The content is good but the narrator is terrible
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fresh perspective, grand strategic view
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Quality control issues
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The content is good but the narrator is terrible
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In this sweeping and insightful history, Henry Kissinger turns for the first time at book length to a country he has known intimately for decades and whose modern relations with the West he helped shape. On China illuminates the inner workings of Chinese diplomacy during such pivotal events as the initial encounters between China and tight line modern European powers, the formation and breakdown of the Sino-Soviet alliance, the Korean War, and Richard Nixon’s historic trip to Beijing.
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China's economy has been booming for decades now. A formidable and emerging power on the world stage, the China that most Americans picture is only a rough sketch, based on American news coverage, policy, and ways of understanding. Enter Keyu Jin: a world-renowned economist and a professor at the London School of Economics. A person fluent in both Eastern and Western cultures, and a voice of the new generation of Chinese who represent a radical break from the past, Jin is uniquely poised to explain how China became the most successful economic story of our time.
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Excellent
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The United States and China are engaged in a broad-gauged and global competition for power. While this competition ranges across the entire world, it is centered in Asia. In this book, David Shambaugh focuses on the critical sub-region of Southeast Asia. The United States and China constantly vie for position and influence across this enormously significant area - and the outcome of this contest will do much to determine whether Asia leaves the American orbit after seven decades and falls into a new Chinese sphere of influence.
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Eminent China scholar Elizabeth C. Economy provides an incisive look at the transformative changes underway in China today. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has unleashed a powerful set of political and economic reforms: the centralization of power under Xi himself; the expansion of the Communist Party's role in Chinese political, social, and economic life; and the construction of a virtual wall of regulations to control more closely the exchange of ideas and capital between China and the outside world.
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A decent synopsis of Xi Jinping and his polices
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Disappointing
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Overreach
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For three decades after Mao's death in 1976, China's leaders adopted a restrained approach to foreign policy. To facilitate the country's inexorable economic ascendance, and to prevent a backlash, they reassured the outside world of China's peaceful intentions. Then, as Susan Shirk shows, something changed. China went from fragile superpower to global heavyweight. Combining her decades of research and experience, Shirk, one of the world's most respected experts on Chinese politics, argues that we are now fully embroiled in a new cold war.
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Good review of recent history but awful conclusion
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Has China Won?
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China and America are world powers without serious rivals. They eye each other warily across the Pacific; they communicate poorly; there seems little natural empathy. A massive geopolitical contest has begun. America prizes freedom; China values freedom from chaos. America values strategic decisiveness; China values patience.America is becoming society of lasting inequality; China a meritocracy. America has abandoned multilateralism; China welcomes it.
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Outstanding, timely, and prescient
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The Strategy of Denial
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Elbridge A. Colby was the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the most significant revision of US defense strategy in a generation. Here he lays out how America's defense must change to address China's growing power and ambition. Based firmly in the realist tradition but deeply engaged in current policy, this book offers a clear framework for what America's goals in confronting China must be, how its military strategy must change, and how it must prioritize these goals over its lesser interests.
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A Rational Liberalist Approach in a Realists World
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The Hundred-Year Marathon
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Fascinating perspective.
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The Struggle for Taiwan
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As tensions over Taiwan escalate, the United States and China stand on the brink of a catastrophic war. Resolving the impasse demands we understand how it began. In 1943, the Allies declared that Japanese-held Taiwan would return to China at the conclusion of World War II. The Chinese civil war led to a change of plans. The Communist Party came to power in China and the defeated Nationalist leader, Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan, where he was afforded US protection. The specter of conflict has loomed ever since.
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Good history, limited analysis
- By John on 08-18-24
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Stealth War
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The media often suggest that Russia poses the greatest threat to America's national security, but the real danger lies farther east. While those in power have been distracted and disorderly, China has waged a six-front war on America's economy, military, diplomacy, technology, education, and infrastructure - and they're winning. It's almost too late to undo the shocking, though nearly invisible, victories of the Chinese. In Stealth War, retired Air Force Brigadier General Robert Spalding reveals China's motives and secret attacks on the West.
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A General with a backbone loaded with truth "woke"
- By Jason on 10-01-19
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New Cold Wars
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- Narrated by: Robertson Dean, David E. Sanger
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New Cold Wars—the latest from the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and bestselling author of The Perfect Weapon David E. Sanger—is a fast-paced account of America’s plunge into simultaneous confrontations with two very different adversaries. For years, the United States was confident that the newly democratic Russia and increasingly wealthy China could be lured into a Western-led order that promised prosperity and relative peace—so long as they agreed to Washington’s terms. By the time America emerged from the age of terrorism, it was clear that this had been a fantasy.
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Gives many insights into our new Cold Wars
- By Amazon Customer on 04-19-24
By: David E. Sanger, and others
What listeners say about The Avoidable War
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Jason D
- 09-26-22
Well written and well researched, but naive in its conclusions
The author presents a well researched and fairly unbiased overview of the current situation vis a vis the U.S. and China. The situation is truly frightening, to say the least.
The author exchanged his thoughtful and well researched tone for wishful thinking in the final chapters where he lays out what the US and China can do to prevent war. Indeed, some of the authors conclusions are naive in the extreme (which he himself admits). His suggestion major domestic structural reforms in the US and China that would counter major long term political trends in each country.
The author makes clear that war between China and the west should be avoided. One avenue that the author points out, but doesn’t explore is that the US still has a quickly closing window to economically ruin the CCP while it’s vulnerable. Contrary to the authors obvious personal bias, it appears that in 2018 Trump might have stumbled onto the right way to deal with China after all; albeit for different reasons.
A less naive assessment of the facts presented in this book would lead a non-Chinese national reader to conclude that China has the same ideological, national, territorial and geo-political goals as the USSR. Therefore the US and the free world is left with two choices:
1. Immediately economically strangle the evil empire like Reagan did to the USSR or
2. Prepare to bend the knee with the rest of the world to our new glorious overlords
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- Pietro
- 11-03-24
very good outlook and very updated
it's very dense but very helpful to get a good idea of the curse of the world for the next 10-20 years and more
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- Alex Noble
- 06-16-22
Insightful and important
Kevin Rudd’s book, is a brilliant explanation of the world’s current situation about the tensions between China and the West. Kevin begins with a deep historical explanation about how we reached the edge of our diplomatic bubbles (from both sides). He then delves into the actors, their personalities, motives and incentives from a senior diplomatic POV (Xi, Trump etc...). Finally, Kevin leaves us with diplomatic solutions for avoiding a possible disaster we have grown to believe to be inevitable. One of the best books on the subject and the more people read it the better.
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- Nate
- 02-04-23
Authoritative and Prescient
Kevin Rudd pulls on decades of experience to provide a detailed overview of what leads us to this point with China and where he sees the world going as a result. Mandatory reading!
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- yougang chen
- 05-07-22
By far the best book on China
You may not agree with the 10 concentric circle framework, personally I think it helps the structure of the book more than the analysis itself, but the content is first rate. As a Chinese reasonably literate in domestic politics, I am impressed by Mr. Rudd’s insights. Highly recommended if you want to improve your odds in getting the next decade right.
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- lawman.
- 04-08-22
Strongly recommend
This was an excellent explanation of the struggle between China and US. Kevin Rudd has written a book both informative and insightful.
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- Cameron Catanzano
- 10-17-22
A Subtle, Focused Book
Not everyone will want to read a book like this; it’s not classic beach read material. But if you were in any way considering reading this book, you should read it.
It was published before the war in Ukraine and the most recent cracks in China’s zero COVID policy. To that extent, it may be a half beat behind recent trends in US-Taiwan rhetoric/policy, the weakening of Russian international posture, and shifts in both the unity and posture of the European Union and NATO. Still, this sober, scary, nuanced, and hopeful book is about as comprehensive and up to date as one could ask for.
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- John
- 09-01-24
Comprehensive strategic analysis
In contrast to most books that address the US China competition, Rudds analysis is comprehensive, including economic competition.
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- Nathan King
- 05-16-22
The best and most sensible book on CHINA and the US in a while
Former Prime Ministers Rudd’s excellent book should form a blueprint to de escalate tensions between Washington and Beijing- my fear is in the current environment it will fall on deaf ears.
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- Sam Farah
- 04-10-23
The best book on the current China -U.S. relations
The Author is well versed in both the Chinese culture and history as well as the American. He is well connected to policy makes in both countries. The book is easy to read and well constructed, it describes the real risk of the current trajectory of the relationship between China and the U.S. and offers a path FWD for managed strategic competition that can avoid a potentially catastrophic war.
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