Today’s question comes from Ramon who writes:

"Many thanks once again for providing such great information and insightful perspectives on so many important topics.

Writing to ask about something I heard from one source, but cant find much information to support (or refute). We all know insurance premiums have been increasing across the board. The common narrative is that insurance claim payouts for various events (eg, fires, hurricanes, etc) have increased substantially as more of those events have occurred in recent years. While that may be one of the reasons, I heard some information that suggested that a bigger cause is insurance company losses (or anticipated losses) in their CRE portfolios (eg, increase in loan defaults, office building vacancies, etc). Wondering if you have heard anything about this. "

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**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
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Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
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**Y Street Capital:**
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On today's show we're dissecting yesterday's Fed rate cut announcement and what it means for us as real estate investors. The most meaningful part of the press conference was during the Q&A period when Chair Powell said that members of the FOMC shared their view in an informal poll. 17 out of 19 members said that they thought three more rate cuts would be appropriate in the next 12 months and that 10 out of 19 said that four more rate cuts would be appropriate in the next 12 months.Of course this informal poll of the members doesn’t identify which 12 members are the actual voting members at the time. Nor is it a commitment on a position in the future. Chair Powell was careful to say that they are making data driven decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.

There is an interesting paper published by the Fed which links rate announcements to bank rates for certificates of deposit. Here is the link to the paper

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2014108r1pap.pdf

The announcement is extremely helpful when it comes to investor psychology. It’s much more credible to have the Chair of the Federal Reserve

Saying that rates are falling than say the host of the Real Estate Espresso podcast predicting a fall in rates. None of us have a crystal ball, not even Chair Powell. But if Chair Powell is saying that Fed officials are predicting 3-4 more rate cuts in the next 12 months, we can include that in our investor communications. That doesn’t mean our borrowing rates will fall in reality. But the direction is at least somewhat clear.

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**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about shingle chasers. These are the door to door sales teams that point out a problem on your roof and try to sell you on a new roof with zero out of pocket cost to you.

The scam works like this: Contractors knock on doors offering to inspect homeowners’ roofs for storm damage. They say they can help get a roof replacement covered by insurance, and they persuade the homeowners to sign away their rights to file the claims themselves. At that point the homeowner loses control over the claim and the contractor can sue the insurance company. But it's still the homeowner's insurance. The resulting settlement might be even higher than the original claim. But the first claim was fraudulent.

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**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
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