Today’s question comes from Ramon who writes:

"Many thanks once again for providing such great information and insightful perspectives on so many important topics.

Writing to ask about something I heard from one source, but cant find much information to support (or refute). We all know insurance premiums have been increasing across the board. The common narrative is that insurance claim payouts for various events (eg, fires, hurricanes, etc) have increased substantially as more of those events have occurred in recent years. While that may be one of the reasons, I heard some information that suggested that a bigger cause is insurance company losses (or anticipated losses) in their CRE portfolios (eg, increase in loan defaults, office building vacancies, etc). Wondering if you have heard anything about this. "

--------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today's show we're dissecting yesterday's Fed rate cut announcement and what it means for us as real estate investors. The most meaningful part of the press conference was during the Q&A period when Chair Powell said that members of the FOMC shared their view in an informal poll. 17 out of 19 members said that they thought three more rate cuts would be appropriate in the next 12 months and that 10 out of 19 said that four more rate cuts would be appropriate in the next 12 months.Of course this informal poll of the members doesn’t identify which 12 members are the actual voting members at the time. Nor is it a commitment on a position in the future. Chair Powell was careful to say that they are making data driven decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.

There is an interesting paper published by the Fed which links rate announcements to bank rates for certificates of deposit. Here is the link to the paper

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2014108r1pap.pdf

The announcement is extremely helpful when it comes to investor psychology. It’s much more credible to have the Chair of the Federal Reserve

Saying that rates are falling than say the host of the Real Estate Espresso podcast predicting a fall in rates. None of us have a crystal ball, not even Chair Powell. But if Chair Powell is saying that Fed officials are predicting 3-4 more rate cuts in the next 12 months, we can include that in our investor communications. That doesn’t mean our borrowing rates will fall in reality. But the direction is at least somewhat clear.

-------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about shingle chasers. These are the door to door sales teams that point out a problem on your roof and try to sell you on a new roof with zero out of pocket cost to you.

The scam works like this: Contractors knock on doors offering to inspect homeowners’ roofs for storm damage. They say they can help get a roof replacement covered by insurance, and they persuade the homeowners to sign away their rights to file the claims themselves. At that point the homeowner loses control over the claim and the contractor can sue the insurance company. But it's still the homeowner's insurance. The resulting settlement might be even higher than the original claim. But the first claim was fraudulent.

---------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
I

On today’s show we are taking a look at an impending risk. We have talked about this on the show in recent weeks.

There have been several news reports in the mainstream media about an impending labour strike by US Longshoremen on October 1. There are reports in Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC and others.

The international longshoremen’s association held a two day meeting on September 4-5 with their wage scale delegates. At the end of two days, the delegates voted last week unanimously to strike on October 1 if a new contract is not negotiated by Sept 30. The longshoremen are looking for a 77% increase in their wages over the life of the contract. They are also looking for assurances that jobs won’t be lost to automation. By comparison, their West coast counterparts received a 32% wage increase in their most recent contract negotiations.

Nearly 10 days later and no discussions have taken place between the ports and the union.

--------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about a new paper published last Friday by Brent Johnson and Michael Peregrine of Santiago Capital. Brent Johnson is famous for his dollar milkshake theory.

This 44 page article is a deep dive into the Japanese carry trade. Many of you might remember a banking crisis that erupted in Japan last month as a result of the implosion of widespread carry trade activity.

While the Yen is likely to rise in the short term when the carry trade truly blows up, it is probably going to fall after that. As I said, the BOJ can protect the bond market or the currency, but not both.

So why do we care about this? If Japan dumps a trillion dollars worth of US Treasuries in a short time period, we could see the supply of US Treasuries exceed demand. That means a sharp and unexpected rise in the yield for US Treasuries which will impact the cost of borrowing for real estate investors. Just because the Fed is in a lowering cycle for the Fed Funds rate, doesn’t mean that the cost of borrowing for real estate investors will follow suit.

--------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Kevin Amolsch is a principal at Pine Financial, based in Denver Colorado. His firm lends locally in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and DC. On today's show we are talking about the criteria for lending and what makes sense for their business in the current environment.

To connect with Kevin, visit https://pinefinancialgroup.com/

-------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Brad Smotherman is based in the Florida panhandle where he operates a large scale, nation wide real estate business.

On today's show we are talking about the complexity that is the enemy of scaling a business.

To connect with Brad or to learn more, search for Investor Creator on Instagram, and check out the Investor Creator Podcast.

-------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about how to find good data.

Last night I hosted an event and invited the Keynote Speaker from Costar to present to our audience. It was a great presentation and the speaker had lots of relevant statistics that would be of interest to anyone in my local market. There were numbers on multi-family apartments, on office, industrial.

During the informal part of the evening we got into a debate about the best sources of data. Every company that specializes in analytics seems to have their own special sauce for how they gather and validate their data.

Some property management companies like Yardi and Realpage also have data analytics products. Both companies are leaders in property management and they can rely on the vast quantity of data that is hosted in their system to provide an accurate picture of the market, but only for the properties they have viability of.

Companies like Costar and ALN use a more old school approach. They have legions of analysts who will monitor the market and pick up the phone and call property owners when a transaction takes place on a commercial property. They will call the property managers at a property and interview them. It’s hard to know whether the property managers are being fully honest in the interview process.

One of the reasons why the reports differ has to do with the methodology.

----------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)