Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An ‘actionable highlights’ reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.

• The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);

• Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);

• Background on the guest (10:28);

• Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45);

• The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);

• Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

• Websites: HullTactical.com, HullTacticalFunds.com;

• Twitter/X: @HullTactical.

Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump’s tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities…

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

• The ‘plumbing’ of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35);

• China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50);

• Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They’re a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42);

• If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition… (16:19);

• Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. “There will be more tension” (24:45);

• The case for gold and gold miners (32:16);

• Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up… (37:18).

• Website: MerkInvestments.com;

• Twitter/X: @AxelMerk

• LinkedIn post referenced in the podcast.

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

• • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

• • Website: AllioCapital.com