Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An ‘actionable highlights’ reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.

• The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);

• Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);

• Background on the guest (10:28);

• Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45);

• The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);

• Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

• Websites: HullTactical.com, HullTacticalFunds.com;

• Twitter/X: @HullTactical.

Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump’s tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities…

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

• The ‘plumbing’ of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35);

• China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50);

• Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They’re a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42);

• If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition… (16:19);

• Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. “There will be more tension” (24:45);

• The case for gold and gold miners (32:16);

• Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up… (37:18).

• Website: MerkInvestments.com;

• Twitter/X: @AxelMerk

• LinkedIn post referenced in the podcast.

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

• • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

• • Website: AllioCapital.com

• Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
• The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15);
• European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
• Background on the guest (12:46);
• The view on gold and silver (16:11);
• Crypto discussion (18:40).

• Substack
• X: @ContrarianRob88

• The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);
• Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
• Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
• Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);
• Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

• Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
• Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

• Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
• The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
• The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
• Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
• Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
• Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
• The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

• AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);
• Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);
• DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);
• So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);
• One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);
• The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);
• What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);
• Background on the guest (33:02);
• The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);

• Website: VerdadCap.com;
• Twitter/X: @VerdadCap.

• Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
• There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
• The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
• Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
• Background on the guest (23:28);
• Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07);
• The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28);
• Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).