Sharon Bertsch McGrayne is the author of critically-acclaimed books about scientific discoveries and the scientists who make them. She is interested in exploring the cutting-edge connection between social issues and scientific progress--and in making the science clear, interesting and accurate for non-specialists.
Her latest book, The Theory That Would Not Die, tells how an 18th century approach to assessing evidence was vilified for much of the 20th century before--in an overnight sea change--it permeated our modern lives.
In a full-page review in the New York Times Book Review, John Allen Paulos wrote, "If you're not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be."
Editor's Choice, New York Times Book Review.
"I recently finished reading The Theory That Would Not Die. ... Bayes's rule is a statistical theory that has a long and interesting history. It is important in decision making -- how tightly should you hold on to your view and how much should you update your view based on the new information that's coming in. We intuitively use Bayes's rule every day ... "-- Alan B. Krueger, chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. Jan. 1, 2012, New York Times.
Nature called it, "A rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. ... An impressively researched history of Bayes' theorem."
"An example of the best in historical scientific journalism: it captures the main threads of the science while going much further on the human side of the story... This is a remarkable achievement. It taught me things, and it made me think. ... This book succeeds gloriously, by never losing sight of the story, and it's a wonderful story, one that desperately deserved to be told." --Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University
“McGrayne ... articulates difficult ideas in a way that the general public can understand and appreciate. ... I highly recommend it to anyone interested in science, history, and the evolution of a theorem over time. The book read as if it were a love story — for an algorithm that grew up neglected, periodically taken out for a ride but mostly sitting home alone, until at long last, it finally found its rightful place of respect and appreciation in the world." —IEEE Computing Now.
The Boston Globe calls it "an intellectual romp, ... a masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment, and it renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences."
"Engaging. ... Readers will be amazed at the impact that Bayes' rule has had in diverse fields, as well as by its rejection by too many statisticians. ... I was brought up, statistically speaking, as what is called a frequentist... But reading McGrayne's book has made me determined to try, once again, to master the intricacies of Bayesian statisics. I am confident that other readers will feel the same." -- The Lancet.
"As significant in our times as the Darwinian theory of natural selection..., yet Bayes' Rule is almost unknown to a wide segment of the educated general public." -- Times Literary Supplement.
"McGrayne is such a good writer that the makes this obscure battle gripping for the general reader. [She writes] with great clarity and wit." Engineering and Technology Magazine.
James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences wrote, "A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read!"
"A Statistical Thriller... McGrayne's tale has everything you would expect of a modern-day thriller. Espionage, nuclear warfare and cold war paranoia all feature... a host of colourful characters and their bitter rivalries carry the tale... McGrayne's writing is luminous. ... To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy."
-- NewScientist
"A compelling and entertaining fusion of history, theory and biography... McGrayne is adept at explaining abstruse mathematics in layperson's language."
-- Sunday London Times
"Approachable and engrossing. ... One of the 100 best holiday reads."
-- Sunday London Times
"A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read!"
--James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and member, National Academy of Sciences
"We now know how to think rationally about our uncertain world. This book describes in vivid prose, accessible to the lay person, the development of Bayes' rule over more than two hundred years from an idea to its widespread acceptance in practice."
--Dennis Lindley, author of Understanding Uncertainty
"Many gripping and occasionally startling stories that grace Sharon Bertsch McGrayne's highly enjoyable new history of Bayesian inference. ... Actuaries play a particular notable role in McGrayne's hidden history of 20th century Bayes."
--Contingencies
"Well known in statistical circles, Bayes's Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work."
--Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes
"Very compelling, ... very interesting reading."
-Jose Bernardo, Valencia List
"Makes the theory come alive, ... gives a voice to the scores of famous and non-famous people and data who contributed, for good or for worse."
-Significance Magazine
"Lively, engaging historical account... Compelling, fast-moving prose. ... Recommended."
-Choice
"McGrayne's book is not a textbook and does not attempt to teach Bayesian inferential techniques. Rather, McGrayne offers a very thorough, informative, and often entertaining (in our humble opinion) discussion of the Bayesian perspective... Strongly recommended [for students] as it provides the theoretical underpinnings of the Bayesian perspective and shows how Bayesianism has been applied to real world inferential / statistical problems."
-- Jon Starkweather, RSS Matters.
"An intellectual romp ... a masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment, and it renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences. Acknowledging ignorance is the first step toward knowledge, yes, and when we wed our ignorance with our better instincts we often find the best possible second step."
-- The Boston Globe.
Wiskunde die je laat leren van je onwetendheid.
-- NRC Handelsblad.
"McGrayne explains [it] beautifully. ... Top holiday reading."
-- The Australian.
OTHER BOOKS BY McGRAYNE
McGrayne's first book dealt with changing patterns of discrimination faced by leading women scientists during the 20th century. Another book portrayed a group of chemists and the interplay between science, the chemical industry, the public's love of creature comforts, and the environment.
McGrayne's work has been featured on the Charley Rose Show and reviewed in Nature, Physics Today, Significance, the Washington Post, Ms., JAMA, Chemistry and Engineering News (C&EN), New Scientist, American Scientist, PopularMechanics.com, and the like. She has appeared on NPR's Talk of the Nation: Science Friday and been invited to speak at more than twenty universities here and in Europe, at national laboratories such as Argonne National Laboratory and the National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST), and at the Centennial meeting of the American Physical Society.
She has written for Science, Scientific American, Discover Magazine, Isis, American Physical Society News, The Times Higher Education Supplement, and Notable American Women. Excerpts of her books have appeared in The Chemical Educator, The Physics Teacher, and Chemical Heritage Foundation Magazine. Nobel Prize Women in Science is used extensively in college courses in the United States and Europe. The National Academy of Sciences presented the Empress of Japan with a copy of the book and now publishes it.
McGrayne is a former prize-winning journalist for Scripps-Howard, Crain's, Gannett, and other newspapers and a former editor and co-author of extensive articles about physics for the Encyclopaedia Britannica. A graduate of Swarthmore College, she lives in Seattle, Washington.
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