-
The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
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Publisher's summary
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
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In Significant Figures, acclaimed mathematician Ian Stewart introduces the visionaries of mathematics throughout history. Delving into the lives of twenty-five great mathematicians, Stewart examines the roles they played in creating, inventing, and discovering the mathematics we use today. Through these short biographies, we get acquainted with the history of mathematics.
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Beware
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By: Ian Stewart
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Know This
- Today's Most Interesting and Important Scientific Ideas, Discoveries, and Developments
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- Narrated by: Gabra Zackman, Dan John Miller
- Length: 14 hrs and 39 mins
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Scientific developments radically alter our understanding of the world. Whether it's technology, climate change, health research, or the latest revelations of neuroscience, physics, or psychology, science has, as Edge editor John Brockman says, "become a big story, if not the big story". In that spirit this new addition to Edge.org's fascinating series asks a powerful and provocative question: What do you consider the most interesting and important recent scientific news?
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Pete and Repeat and Re-repeat
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By: John Brockman
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Headstrong
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- Narrated by: Lauren Fortgang
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In 2013, the New York Times published an obituary for Yvonne Brill. It began: “She made a mean beef stroganoff, followed her husband from job to job, and took eight years off from work to raise three children.” It wasn’t until the second paragraph that readers discovered why the Times had devoted several hundred words to her life: Brill was a brilliant rocket scientist who invented a propulsion system to keep communications satellites in orbit, and had recently been awarded the National Medal of Technology and Innovation.
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Role models for young women
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Big Science
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Since the 1930s, the scale of scientific endeavors has grown exponentially. The birth of Big Science can be traced to Berkeley, California, nearly nine decades ago, when a resourceful young scientist pondered his new invention and declared, "I'm going to be famous!" Ernest Orlando Lawrence's cyclotron would revolutionize nuclear physics, but that was only the beginning of its impact.This is the incredible story of how one invention changed the world and of the man principally responsible for it all. Michael Hiltzik tells the riveting full story here for the first time.
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An informative and thought-provoking book
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By: Michael Hiltzik
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The Upright Thinkers
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In this fascinating and illuminating work, Leonard Mlodinow guides us through the critical eras and events in the development of science, all of which, he demonstrates, were propelled forward by humankind's collective struggle to know. From the birth of reasoning and culture to the formation of the studies of physics, chemistry, biology, and modern-day quantum physics, we come to see that much of our progress can be attributed to simple questions - why? how? - bravely asked.
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10/10 Got What I Wanted.
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American taxpayers spend $30 billion annually funding biomedical research, but over half of these studies can't be replicated due to poor experimental design, improper methods, and sloppy statistics. Bad science doesn't just hold back medical progress, it can sign the equivalent of a death sentence for terminal patients. In Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris explores these urgent issues with vivid anecdotes, personal stories, and interviews with the top biomedical researchers. We need to fix our dysfunctional biomedical system - before it's too late.
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Eye opening introduction to biomedical R&D
- By Amazon Customer on 09-18-18
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Warnings
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Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?
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On prediction, catastrophe and mitigation
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The Master Algorithm
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Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
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Great book, irritating narration
- By N. G. PEPIN on 09-24-15
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How the Hippies Saved Physics
- Science, Counterculture, and the Quantum Revival
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In the 1970s, amid severe cutbacks in physics funding, a small group of underemployed physicists in Berkeley decided to throw off the constraints of academia and explore the wilder side of science. Dubbing themselves the “Fundamental Fysiks Group,” they pursued a freewheeling, speculative approach to physics. Some dabbled with LSD while conducting experiments. They studied quantum theory alongside Eastern mysticism and psychic mind reading, discussing the latest developments while lounging in hot tubs.
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Finally, I understand entanglement
- By Gary on 05-27-12
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The Imagineers of War
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The definitive history of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Pentagon agency that has quietly shaped war and technology for nearly 60 years. Founded in 1958 in response to the launch of Sputnik, the agency's original mission was to create "the unimagined weapons of the future". Over the decades, DARPA has been responsible for countless inventions and technologies that extend well beyond military technology.
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Blandly written story about DARPA politics
- By Syed on 04-18-17
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What listeners say about The Theory That Would Not Die
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Ivan
- 11-10-12
A fascinating story
The history of Bayesian statistics is fascinating, and this book ably tells the story of its twists and turns. I can understand why the author wants to insulate the reader from the mathematics, but I would have preferred a little more technical detail, especially as it applies to numerical methods. You'll come away from this book understanding how useful Bayesian inference is, but you probably won't learn very much about how it works.
I had no trouble understanding the narrator, but this is the first audiobook I've listened to in which some proper names (especially French names) were horribly mispronounced.
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3 people found this helpful
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- Henry Rosenberg MD
- 09-09-19
Amazing story
Even though I have used statistics in my work, this thoroughly researched book opened my eyes to the power of probability and statistics.
I am inspired to learn more about Bayesian and Pascal’s work
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- Maria
- 04-29-24
interesting
Very informativo, brindes the history and it is current... very interesting. I particularly like the bit about computer translations.
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- John C.
- 07-02-19
I don't get the bad reviews...
Plain and simple, if you want to learn the intricacies of Bayes Theorem please go to a textbook, there are 100's of them out there. This book was written by a journalist on the history and important events that led to the rebirth of Bayes on the 20th century. If you're familiar with Bayes, this book for sure will give you a new perspective on the topic.
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5 people found this helpful
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- Doost
- 10-17-19
educational, curious
wonderful story lines building on logic and usage of probability and its two main philosophies. a good read.
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- Mary
- 03-27-23
A nontechnical math history
The author of a book like this has to decide how technical to get. McGrayne has opted for extremely nontechnical. Unfortunately, this turns much of the book into a soap opera. There are Designated Villains (establishment types who want to keep doing things the old way), then along come Valiant Heroes (rebels who use Bayes), the Valiant Heroes solve a problem that no one else had solved – then on to the next chapter and the next problem, same story. The book is weak on explaining the math of why, on this or that particular problem, one method worked better. It’s much more informative about the individuals on both sides and about the circumstances of their conflicts.
Unless you’re already completely familiar with the math, I recommend beginning at the end – with the case study in Appendix B (Chapter 24 in the audiobook). According to the author’s numbers, if a woman in her 40s has breast cancer, the chance that she will get a positive mammogram result is about 80%. Nevertheless, if a woman in her 40s gets a positive mammogram result, the chance that she actually has breast cancer is only 3%. Why are the numbers so different? Bayes’s theorem explains how to solve problems like this. In Appendix B, the author works through the application of the theorem to this specific situation, in a way that greatly illuminates the theorem. It makes the rest of the book somewhat more comprehensible.
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- Mica Sims
- 09-10-22
Very informative and captivating
Not what you’d expect from a book on a statistics theory. It was much better.
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- Gregory
- 06-20-23
The Story Behind Bayes Theorem (Rule)
If you’re looking to learn about how to use Bayes Theorem (Rule) or learn about the components of the formula and why it’s built the way it is and how it actually works, this is NOT the book for you. If you want to learn about the history behind it, who invented it, who added to the invention, how it survived in the shadows for centuries before becoming a foundational asset to the field of probability, then you found the perfect book. I’m in no way belittling this book by saying this I’m merely stating that this is a history book not a math book. I’d like to add that learning the history of Bayes Theorem (Rule) is vital to understanding the magnitude of what this formula provides to the user. It’s a very motivating and uplifting story that shows the light at the end of the tunnel to people new to learning Bayes Theorem (Rule). We get a glimpse at its potential to make world changing revelations.
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- Timothy L Oyler
- 03-14-24
Thorough history
This book is an indepth history of the theory and its broad applications. Great base to begin study from
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- mean square
- 12-15-17
interesting history
bayes' theorem had a surprisingly tortured history. I always considered it a useful tool in a data analyst's bag. it never occurred to me that some would become so religious about its application to statistics.
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