
The Theory That Would Not Die
How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
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Narrated by:
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Laural Merlington
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
©2011 Sharon Bertsch McGrayne (P)2012 TantorListeners also enjoyed...




















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I had no trouble understanding the narrator, but this is the first audiobook I've listened to in which some proper names (especially French names) were horribly mispronounced.
A fascinating story
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I am inspired to learn more about Bayesian and Pascal’s work
Amazing story
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interesting
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Very informative and captivating
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The Story Behind Bayes Theorem (Rule)
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Thorough history
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interesting history
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I found the narrative engaging and at times gripping. Sometimes the repetitive use of examples litter the historical story line, but the story itself is illuminating.
I've never heard as much info on RenTech, which was fascinating, but wish more time had been spent on Mercer.
great listen, great read
great
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The writing was good. Not particularly captivating, but it held my attention.
At the end she talks about breast cancer screening, and I think the lesson here is something that everyone would benefit from knowing (especially during a pandemic) - a test may be 99.9% accurate, but if you get a positive result, it may only have a 3% chance of indicating that you have the condition for which it is testing. If that's confusing, consider studying Bayes Theorem! :)
0.8 probability of 5 stars
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I don't get the bad reviews...
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