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How to Expect the Unexpected
- The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
- Narrated by: Kit Yates
- Length: 11 hrs and 41 mins
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Publisher's summary
A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023
'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip Pullman
'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien
'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People
· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?
· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?
· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?
· How do you prevent a nuclear war?
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
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Story
How do today's most successful tech companies - Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla - design, develop, and deploy the products that have earned the love of literally billions of people around the world? Perhaps surprisingly, they do it very differently from the vast majority of tech companies. In Inspired, technology product management thought leader Marty Cagan provides listeners with a master class in how to structure and staff a vibrant and successful product organization and how to discover and deliver technology products that your customers will love.
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Great book, terrible audio wanted to ask a refund
- By Srikanth Ramanujam on 11-15-18
By: Marty Cagan
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How the Earth Works
- By: Michael E. Wysession, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Michael E. Wysession
- Length: 24 hrs and 31 mins
- Original Recording
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How the Earth Works takes you on an astonishing journey through time and space. In 48 lectures, you will look at what went into making our planet - from the big bang, to the formation of the solar system, to the subsequent evolution of Earth.
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Excellent course
- By Doug B. on 05-23-19
By: Michael E. Wysession, and others
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Mycophilia
- Revelations From the Weird World of Mushrooms
- By: Eugenia Bone
- Narrated by: Aimee Jolson
- Length: 11 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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In Mycophilia, accomplished food writer and cookbook author Eugenia Bone examines the role of fungi as exotic delicacy, curative, poison, and hallucinogen, and ultimately discovers that a greater understanding of fungi is key to facing many challenges of the 21st century.
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Absolutely awful, insufferable, racist author
- By Rs 🦇 on 11-25-19
By: Eugenia Bone
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
- By: Charles Wheelan
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 10 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- By Michael on 09-07-13
By: Charles Wheelan
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Buried in the Sky
- The Extraordinary Story of the Sherpa Climbers on K2's Deadliest Day
- By: Peter Zuckerman, Amanda Padoan
- Narrated by: David Doersch
- Length: 7 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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When Edmund Hillary first conquered Mt. Everest, Sherpa Tenzing Norgay was at his side. Indeed, for as long as Westerners have been climbing the Himalaya, Sherpas have been the unsung heroes in the background. In August 2008, when eleven climbers lost their lives on K2, the world’s most dangerous peak, two Sherpas survived. They had emerged from poverty and political turmoil to become two of the most skillful mountaineers on earth. Based on unprecedented access and interviews, Buried in the Sky reveals their astonishing story for the first time.
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Sherpas, The True Unsung Heroes
- By Kathy in CA on 07-26-15
By: Peter Zuckerman, and others
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- By: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrated by: Matthew Dudley
- Length: 17 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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Completely misleading title
- By Motorjaw on 01-28-15
By: Barry J. Nalebuff, and others
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The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
- By: Thomas S. Kuhn
- Narrated by: Dennis Holland
- Length: 10 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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A good book may have the power to change the way we see the world, but a great book actually becomes part of our daily consciousness, pervading our thinking to the point that we take it for granted, and we forget how provocative and challenging its ideas once were - and still are. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is that kind of book.
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The problem is not with the book
- By Marcus on 08-09-09
By: Thomas S. Kuhn
What listeners say about How to Expect the Unexpected
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Adam Richardson
- 07-08-23
Brilliant
This is off the scale fantastic. The information in this book is worth so much to my clinical reasoning as a Physio.
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- bean481
- 07-11-23
Gripping, even on 2nd listening!
Yates describes so many laws, biases, and effects I needed to listen a second time to get a fuller grasp of his thesis. His illustrations (both personal and international) served to ground his concepts in easily graspable terms.
I look forward to a third and subsequent listen to refresh and cement his suggestions.
Huge thanks to the doctor!!!
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