
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrated by:
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David Spiegelhalter
About this listen
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioListeners also enjoyed...
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- By Alessandro Fadini on 06-28-24
By: Tom Chivers
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Nathaniel Priestley
- Length: 9 hrs and 43 mins
- Unabridged
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An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
By: Adam Kucharski
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Bye Bye I Love You
- The Story of Our First and Last Words
- By: Michael Erard
- Narrated by: Stephen Caffrey
- Length: 13 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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With our earliest utterances, we announce ourselves—and are recognized—as persons ready for social life. With our final ones, we mark where others must release us to death's embrace. In Bye Bye I Love You, linguist and author Michael Erard explores these phenomena, commonly called "first words" and "last words," uncovering their cultural, historical, and biological entanglements and honoring their deep private significance.
By: Michael Erard
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Metadata
- The MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series
- By: Jeffrey Pomerantz
- Narrated by: Steven Menasche
- Length: 5 hrs and 8 mins
- Unabridged
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When "metadata" became breaking news, appearing in stories about surveillance by the National Security Agency, many members of the public encountered this once-obscure term from information science for the first time. Should people be reassured that the NSA was "only" collecting metadata about phone calls - information about the caller, the recipient, the time, the duration, the location - and not recordings of the conversations themselves? Or does phone call metadata reveal more than it seems?
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This Rocks!
- By M.Biblioswine on 07-31-20
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Psycholinguistics
- A Very Short Introduction
- By: Fernanda Ferreira
- Narrated by: Lisa S. Ware
- Length: 4 hrs and 32 mins
- Unabridged
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This Very Short Introduction to psycholinguistics is an accessible and engaging description of how people use language. Talking and understanding language probably seem like simple and straightforward skills, but research in psycholinguistics has shown that complex computations take place behind the scenes when you communicate with others. Recent debates concerning how AI tools such as ChatGPT work highlight some of these core questions about the language faculty and how it is that humans comprehend, produce, and learn language.
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Chokepoints
- American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
- By: Edward Fishman
- Narrated by: Robert Petkoff
- Length: 17 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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It used to be that ravaging another country’s economy required blockading its ports and laying siege to its cities. Now all it takes is a statement posted online by the U.S. government. In Chokepoints, Edward Fishman, a former top State Department sanctions official, takes us deep into the back rooms of power to reveal the untold history of the last two decades of U.S. foreign policy, in which America renounced the gospel of globalization and waged a new kind of economic war.
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Impressive
- By Harry Helbock on 06-17-25
By: Edward Fishman
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Fatherhood
- A History of Love and Power
- By: Augustine Sedgewick
- Narrated by: Feodor Chin
- Length: 9 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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In Fatherhood, celebrated historian Augustine Sedgewick explains how this style of parenting emerged in the first place, why it has changed over time, and whether it will endure as we know it, despite its extraordinary costs. Told through the lives of emblematic fathers like Aristotle, Saint Augustine, Henry VIII, Thomas Jefferson, Charles Darwin, and Sigmund Freud, this is an ambitious yet intimate look at how masculinity has evolved and how men have come to hold disproportionate power by expanding and reinforcing the power of fathers in times of crisis.
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Peak Human
- What We Can Learn from History’s Greatest Civilizations
- By: Johan Norberg
- Narrated by: Andrew Cullum
- Length: 15 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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All golden ages are marked by periods of spectacular cultural flourishing, scientific exploration, technological achievement and economic growth; yet no two are the same. Their beliefs, societies and place in the wider world all vary. Despite this, all previous golden ages have ended, whether it be because of external pressures or internal fracturing; too much hubris or too little wariness.
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The consist threads that knit the central theme.
- By C. D. on 06-11-25
By: Johan Norberg
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- By: David McWilliams
- Narrated by: David McWilliams
- Length: 13 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
By: David McWilliams
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Escape from Model Land
- How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It
- By: Erica Thompson
- Narrated by: Kirsty Dillon
- Length: 9 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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Whether we are worried about the spread of COVID-19 or making a corporate budget, we depend on mathematical models to help us understand the world around us every day. But models aren’t a mirror of reality. In fact, they are fantasies, where everything works out perfectly, every time. And relying on them too heavily can hurt us. In Escape from Model Land, statistician Erica Thompson illuminates the hidden dangers of models.
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a lot of worth while substance in this book
- By Amazon Customer on 02-17-23
By: Erica Thompson
Terrific
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