
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrated by:
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David Spiegelhalter
About this listen
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioListeners also enjoyed...
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Story
The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
By: David McWilliams
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Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- By: Kelly Clancy
- Narrated by: Patty Nieman
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
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Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- By Rony exantus on 01-06-25
By: Kelly Clancy
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Ordinary Magic
- The Science of How We Can Achieve Big Change with Small Acts
- By: Gregory M. Walton PhD
- Narrated by: Gregory M. Walton PhD, Hattie Tate
- Length: 14 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
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The emotional questions we face can define our lives. If you’re expecting an interaction to go wrong, that expectation can make it so. That’s spiraling down. But as esteemed Stanford psychologist Greg Walton shows, when we see these questions clearly, we can answer them well. Known to social psychologists as wise interventions, these shifts in perspective can help us chart new trajectories for our lives. They help us spiral up. This is ordinary magic: The ordinary experiences that help us set aside the ordinary worries of life to unleash extraordinary change.
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So simple and so profound
- By S. Ma on 05-17-25
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Masters of Uncertainty: The Navy SEAL Way to Turn Stress into Success for You and Your Team
- By: Rich Diviney
- Narrated by: Rich Diviney
- Length: 2 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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Retired Navy SEAL commander and performance expert Rich Diviney reveals a revolutionary method for training individuals and teams to perform at their best, no matter what.
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Incredible and concise- everyone at any level or stage / phase of everything can use this book
- By Anonymous User on 03-01-25
By: Rich Diviney
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Radical Uncertainty
- Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- By: John Kay, Mervyn King
- Narrated by: Roger Davis
- Length: 15 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
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Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
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At 1:23:50: "we must expect ... a virus"
- By Philo on 03-18-20
By: John Kay, and others
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Memory Lane
- The Perfectly Imperfect Ways We Remember
- By: Gillian Murphy, Ciara Greene
- Narrated by: Emily Schwing
- Length: 6 hrs and 47 mins
- Unabridged
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We tend to think of our memories as impressions of the past that remain fully intact, preserved somewhere inside our brains. In fact, we construct and reconstruct our memories every time we attempt to recall them. Memory Lane introduces listeners to the cutting-edge science of human memory, revealing how our recollections of the past are constantly adapting and changing, and why a faulty memory isn't always a bad thing.
By: Gillian Murphy, and others
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Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- By: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrated by: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Length: 6 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
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Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
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A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- By Naya on 03-05-25
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- By Billy on 07-21-14
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Perfect Bet
- How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Jonathan Yen
- Length: 8 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
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From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
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Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
- By Philo on 04-02-16
By: Adam Kucharski
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Zero
- The Biography of a Dangerous Idea
- By: Charles Seife
- Narrated by: Bob Souer
- Length: 6 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
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In Zero, science journalist Charles Seife follows this innocent-looking number from its birth as an Eastern philosophical concept to its struggle for acceptance in Europe, its rise and transcendence in the West, and its ever-present threat to modern physics.
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Wonderful book!
- By Samvir Tamadurgam on 07-26-21
By: Charles Seife
Terrific
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