
Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrated by:
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Tom Chivers
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By:
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Tom Chivers
About this listen
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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Fascinating & enlightening even for da mathphobic✏️
- By C. White on 01-23-20
By: Matt Parker
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- By: Haim Shapira
- Narrated by: Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy
- Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity's Future
- By: Tom Chivers
- Narrated by: Tom Chivers
- Length: 8 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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This is an audiobook about AI and AI risk. But it's also more importantly about a community of people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence, and the places that these thoughts are taking them, and what insight they can and can't give us about the future of the human race over the next few years. It explains why these people are worried, why they might be right and why they might be wrong.
By: Tom Chivers
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- By Billy on 07-21-14
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A Brief History of Mathematics
- Complete Series
- By: Marcus du Sautoy
- Narrated by: Marcus du Sautoy
- Length: 2 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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This 10-part history of mathematics reveals the personalities behind the calculations: the passions and rivalries of mathematicians struggling to get their ideas heard. Professor Marcus du Sautoy shows how these masters of abstraction find a role in the real world and proves that mathematics is the driving force behind modern science.
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not a book
- By bob on 06-22-21
By: Marcus du Sautoy
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Nate Silver
- Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- By David Benjamin on 09-14-24
By: Nate Silver
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Tim Harford
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- By A. Visserman on 03-09-21
By: Tim Harford
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- By: David Stipp
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 5 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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Good treatment of the subject
- By Kindle Customer on 04-09-18
By: David Stipp
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Waves in an Impossible Sea
- How Everyday Life Emerges from the Cosmic Ocean
- By: Matt Strassler
- Narrated by: Christopher Grove
- Length: 11 hrs and 31 mins
- Unabridged
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In Waves in an Impossible Sea, physicist Matt Strassler tells a startling tale of elementary particles, human experience, and empty space. He begins with a simple mystery of motion. When we drive at highway speeds with the windows down, the wind beats against our faces. Yet our planet hurtles through the cosmos at 150 miles per second, and we feel nothing of it. How can our voyage be so tranquil when, as Einstein discovered, matter warps space, and space deflects matter? The answer, Strassler reveals, is that empty space is a sea, albeit a paradoxically strange one.
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No pdf
- By Mark on 01-14-25
By: Matt Strassler
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Standard Deviations
- Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
- By: Gary Smith
- Narrated by: Tim Andres Pabon
- Length: 9 hrs and 20 mins
- Unabridged
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As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing.
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Now, I can't talk to people.....
- By Andrew Dunbar on 09-28-21
By: Gary Smith
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Artificial Intelligence
- Modern Magic or Dangerous Future?
- By: Yorick Wilks
- Narrated by: Hannibal Hills
- Length: 5 hrs
- Unabridged
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AI expert Yorick Wilks takes a journey through the history of artificial intelligence up to the present day, examining its origins, controversies, and achievements, as well as looking into just how it works. He also considers the future, assessing whether these technologies could menace our way of life and how we are all likely to benefit from AI applications in the years to come.
By: Yorick Wilks
What listeners say about Everything Is Predictable
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Mark
- 09-16-24
Hard to listen to
Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
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1 person found this helpful
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- Amazon Customer
- 12-16-24
Great opportunity to ponder...
...how one behaves and how one might be behaving optimally. And the reader performes and reads with proper deference.
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- Frank from Virginia
- 06-01-24
Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.
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- Benjamin
- 07-07-24
The best Bayes overview for layman
Great overview of Bayes - funny and informative. Author does an excellent job narrating his own text. Highly recommend.
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- Anderson Kelly
- 02-21-25
Bayes everywhere Now I see him!
The ending or culmination of the book is fantastic. It was presented well with a perfect reading.
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- thomas b young
- 11-17-24
Great topic spoken in simple terms!
Great voice. Great content. Wish this author would create more. This text is welcoming to novice minds on the subject matter. It also does a great job giving some historical background. Would love more on free energy theory.
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- B. Ramos-Stephens
- 01-06-25
Great listen on Bayes
Loved this book for its content & sprinkling of humor. I’m already a student or Bayesian statistics, complexity theory & AI. So, this listen was right up my alley. It gave me new insights on all these topics, and tied them all together once again. If you are already familiar with Bayesian theory, I highly recommend this listen to get more in depth, novel insights & some practical applications. The material didn’t call for great leaps of narration, so I only gave it 4 stars in that regard. But, the use of humor was a really nice touch.
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- steve
- 03-23-25
Excellent book
I was familiar with the subject but this book did a great job explaining it.
The author reads his own work well. His humor is a welcome relief to trying to understanding the concept.
Well worth your time
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- Alessandro Fadini
- 06-28-24
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
Unfortunately the book is all around underwhelming.
There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
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2 people found this helpful