
Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrated by:
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Tom Chivers
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By:
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Tom Chivers
About this listen
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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- Length: 10 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
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Terrific
- By Roger March on 04-01-25
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Tim Harford
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- By A. Visserman on 03-09-21
By: Tim Harford
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- By: Haim Shapira
- Narrated by: Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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Becoming a Data Head
- How to Think, Speak, and Understand Data Science, Statistics, and Machine Learning
- By: Alex J. Gutman, Jordan Goldmeier
- Narrated by: Brian Arens
- Length: 7 hrs and 41 mins
- Unabridged
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Becoming a Data Head is a complete guide for data science in the workplace: covering everything from the personalities you’ll work with to the math behind the algorithms. The authors have spent years in data trenches and sought to create a fun, approachable, and eminently bingeable book. Anyone can become a Data Head—an active participant in data science, statistics, and machine learning. Whether you're a business professional, engineer, executive, or aspiring data scientist, this book is for you.
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The best data science manual ever written
- By Jordan on 08-29-24
By: Alex J. Gutman, and others
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- By: David Stipp
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 5 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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Good treatment of the subject
- By Kindle Customer on 04-09-18
By: David Stipp
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Humble Pi
- When Math Goes Wrong in the Real World
- By: Matt Parker
- Narrated by: Matt Parker
- Length: 9 hrs and 33 mins
- Unabridged
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Exploring and explaining a litany of glitches, near misses, and mathematical mishaps involving the internet, big data, elections, street signs, lotteries, the Roman Empire, and an Olympic team, Matt Parker uncovers the bizarre ways math trips us up, and what this reveals about its essential place in our world. Getting it wrong has never been more fun.
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Fascinating & enlightening even for da mathphobic✏️
- By C. White on 01-23-20
By: Matt Parker
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
- By: Charles Wheelan
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 10 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- By Michael on 09-07-13
By: Charles Wheelan
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The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
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Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
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Mathematica
- A Secret World of Intuition and Curiosity
- By: David Bessis, Kevin Frey - translator
- Narrated by: Mike Lenz
- Length: 9 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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Math has a reputation for being inaccessible. People think that it requires a special gift or that comprehension is a matter of genes. Yet, the greatest mathematicians throughout history, from Rene Descartes to Alexander Grothendieck, have insisted that this is not the case.
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Great General Creativity Guide (w' math as a lens)
- By V. Bandy on 07-19-24
By: David Bessis, and others
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Standard Deviations
- Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
- By: Gary Smith
- Narrated by: Tim Andres Pabon
- Length: 9 hrs and 20 mins
- Unabridged
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As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing.
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Now, I can't talk to people.....
- By Andrew Dunbar on 09-28-21
By: Gary Smith
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
Hard to listen to
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Great opportunity to ponder...
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Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
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The best Bayes overview for layman
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Bayes everywhere Now I see him!
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Great topic spoken in simple terms!
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Great listen on Bayes
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The author reads his own work well. His humor is a welcome relief to trying to understanding the concept.
Well worth your time
Excellent book
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There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
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