
Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrated by:
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Tom Chivers
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By:
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Tom Chivers
About this listen
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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By: Matt Parker
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- By: Haim Shapira
- Narrated by: Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Tim Harford
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- By A. Visserman on 03-09-21
By: Tim Harford
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The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: David Spiegelhalter
- Length: 10 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
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Terrific
- By Roger March on 04-01-25
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The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved
- How Mathematical Genius Discovered the Language of Symmetry
- By: Mario Livio
- Narrated by: Tom Parks
- Length: 11 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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For thousands of years mathematicians solved progressively more difficult algebraic equations, until they encountered the quintic equation, which resisted solution for three centuries. Working independently, two prodigies ultimately proved that the quintic cannot be solved by a simple formula. The first popular account of the mathematics of symmetry and order, The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved is told not through abstract formulas but in a beautifully written and dramatic account of the lives and work of some of the greatest and most intriguing mathematicians in history.
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Historical Perspective Appreciated
- By Michael Hanrahan on 01-22-20
By: Mario Livio
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Love Triangle
- How Trigonometry Shapes the World
- By: Matt Parker
- Narrated by: Matt Parker
- Length: 8 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
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Trigonometry is perhaps the most essential concept humans have ever devised. The simple yet versatile triangle allows us to record music, map the world, launch rockets into space, and be slightly less bad at pool. Triangles underpin our day-to-day lives and civilization as we know it. In Love Triangle, Matt Parker argues we should all show a lot more love for triangles, along with all the useful trigonometry and geometry they enable.
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Matt’s enthusiasm is great
- By Sam Firestone on 03-31-25
By: Matt Parker
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A Brief History of Mathematics
- Complete Series
- By: Marcus du Sautoy
- Narrated by: Marcus du Sautoy
- Length: 2 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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This 10-part history of mathematics reveals the personalities behind the calculations: the passions and rivalries of mathematicians struggling to get their ideas heard. Professor Marcus du Sautoy shows how these masters of abstraction find a role in the real world and proves that mathematics is the driving force behind modern science.
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not a book
- By bob on 06-22-21
By: Marcus du Sautoy
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Becoming a Data Head
- How to Think, Speak, and Understand Data Science, Statistics, and Machine Learning
- By: Alex J. Gutman, Jordan Goldmeier
- Narrated by: Brian Arens
- Length: 7 hrs and 41 mins
- Unabridged
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Becoming a Data Head is a complete guide for data science in the workplace: covering everything from the personalities you’ll work with to the math behind the algorithms. The authors have spent years in data trenches and sought to create a fun, approachable, and eminently bingeable book. Anyone can become a Data Head—an active participant in data science, statistics, and machine learning. Whether you're a business professional, engineer, executive, or aspiring data scientist, this book is for you.
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The best data science manual ever written
- By Jordan on 08-29-24
By: Alex J. Gutman, and others
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Nate Silver
- Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- By David Benjamin on 09-14-24
By: Nate Silver
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- By Billy on 07-21-14
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
Hard to listen to
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Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
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Great opportunity to ponder...
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Great topic spoken in simple terms!
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Great listen on Bayes
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The best Bayes overview for layman
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Bayes everywhere Now I see him!
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The author reads his own work well. His humor is a welcome relief to trying to understanding the concept.
Well worth your time
Excellent book
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There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
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