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Radical Uncertainty
- Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- Narrated by: Roger Davis
- Length: 15 hrs and 50 mins
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Publisher's summary
In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.
Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands - the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.
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A dazzlingly original account of the life and thought of Adam Smith, the greatest economist of all time. In Adam Smith, political philosopher Jesse Norman dispels the myths and caricatures, and provides a far more complex portrait of the man. Offering a highly engaging account of Smith's life and times, Norman explores his work as a whole and traces his influence over two centuries to the present day. Finally, he shows how a proper understanding of Smith can help us address the problems of modern capitalism.
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Most excellent book!
- By Harish G. Naik on 03-02-19
By: Jesse Norman
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Narrative Economics
- How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
- By: Robert J. Shiller
- Narrated by: Susan Osman, Robert J. Shiller - introduction
- Length: 11 hrs and 7 mins
- Unabridged
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Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move markets - whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up or that housing prices never fall. Whether true or false, stories like these - transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media - drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that.
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Such boring narration (returned)
- By William J Brown on 10-08-19
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The Great Degeneration
- How Institutions Decay and Economies Die
- By: Niall Ferguson
- Narrated by: Paul Slack
- Length: 4 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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Best-selling author and world-renowned historian Niall Ferguson has won widespread acclaim for thought-provoking works such as Civilization and High Financier. The Great Degeneration tackles nothing less than the decline of Western civilization. Ferguson posits that slowing growth, outrageous debt, and antisocial behavior are contributing to the erosion of the West’s once rock-solid foundations. Ferguson excavates the causes and shows how heroic leadership and radical reform are needed to right the course.
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Superb as always!
- By Ivanhoe on 08-28-17
By: Niall Ferguson
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Economics for the Common Good
- By: Jean Tirole, Steven Rendell - translator
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 18 hrs and 54 mins
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When Jean Tirole won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, he suddenly found himself being stopped in the street by complete strangers and asked to comment on issues of the day, no matter how distant from his own areas of research. His transformation from academic economist to public intellectual prompted him to reflect further on the role economists and their discipline play in society. The result is Economics for the Common Good, a passionate manifesto for a world in which economics, far from being a "dismal science," is a positive force for the common good.
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A Great Overview of the Challenges of Modern Econ
- By Zach Sullivan on 08-06-18
By: Jean Tirole, and others
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- By: Justin Fox
- Narrated by: Alan Sklar
- Length: 13 hrs and 38 mins
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- By D. Martin on 06-29-12
By: Justin Fox
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Jonathan Keeble
- Length: 9 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- By Lawrence on 05-20-13
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Average is Over
- Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
- By: Tyler Cowen
- Narrated by: Andrew Garman
- Length: 8 hrs and 42 mins
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The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom. The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
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Disappointing analysis of future
- By JKBart on 12-10-13
By: Tyler Cowen
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Charlie Munger
- The Complete Investor
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Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of "elementary, worldly wisdom" - a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management - allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment.
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Good, but... one major annoyance
- By Joseph R. Compton on 02-26-16
By: Tren Griffin
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The Halo Effect
- ...and the 8 Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers
- By: Phil Rosenzweig
- Narrated by: Jim Manchester
- Length: 6 hrs and 57 mins
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Performance
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Much of our business thinking is shaped by delusions that distort our understanding of the real reasons for a company's performance. The most pervasive delusion is the Halo Effect. When a company's sales and profits are up, people often conclude that it has a brilliant strategy, a visionary leader, capable employees, and a superb corporate culture. When performance falters, they conclude the opposite. In fact, little may have changed.
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slow start
- By michael on 01-03-10
By: Phil Rosenzweig
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What listeners say about Radical Uncertainty
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- perpetual A
- 06-08-20
Provoking much food for thought
Great insight into oneself ... it certainly makes you think about what you think you know ... and what reality is .... my joke about the author is I don’t like him because he’s an economist ....I don’t like him because he speaks English ... if one were to lay all the economist head to toe a ring around the world would be former...but they would never reach a decision..... book gets very draggy at times and I did pick up the speed at which it was narrated
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- Forbes
- 11-04-20
A great read
The book is filled with interesting anecdotes and histories. The narrator’s dry delivery is perfect for the humorous economic inconsistencies that fill the pages.
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2 people found this helpful
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- Zeno
- 06-24-21
Thorough Treatment of Essential Concepts
A great addition and complement for those who enjoyed Peter Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Nassim Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, The book covers key concepts in decision science, probability, and game theory by using interesting and easy to grasp examples. Even if you are familiar with some, most, or all of the content, much tends to be slippery and unintuitive; (e.g. The Monty Hall problem, which is given an excellent treatment here). The more I hear these concepts, the better I am reminded to avoid common and easy to make financial mistakes in the future.
As for the narration, Roger Davis did an excellent job with both pronunciation and presentation. So often great books are marred by bad narrators, which happily is not the case here. Mr. Davis enhanced the material, which I had already read in print form. Too bad he didn't narrate Time of the Magicians, and Kindred; two excellent books that terrible narrators ruined in audio format.
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- H2O_Doc
- 12-09-20
Outstanding and broadly applicable
Very well done and widely applicable to many disciplines and life in general. Well read, too, for those of you who focus too much on the speaker.
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- Stevtar
- 04-06-23
Best resurrection since Lazarus
Kudos to King and Kay for resurrecting the importance of radical uncertainty, especially in a fun and enjoyable manner that’s relatively simple (and also explains how more advanced models can often give false precision/comfort when knowledge is lacking)
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- Fred
- 05-17-23
Outstanding
People will go to great lengths to avoid thinking. People should read this book. Balanced, informed, practical and, dare I say, enlightening. Also an entertaining and enjoyable read.
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- steve
- 10-06-23
Excellent book
The narration is well done and you can listen at 1.5 times speed with no problem.
“What is really going on?” Excellent and something I will use many times many times a day
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- Philo
- 03-18-20
At 1:23:50: "we must expect ... a virus"
Of books I've read, this is closest to (the terrific) Against the Gods: The remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein.
It is about reckoning with uncertainty in all areas of life: measuring, modeling, guessing, betting, deciding, and committing.
This (well-timed) work is not as graceful, lyrical, or punchy as Nassim Taleb's best. But it is more disciplined and thorough. It is an education in one book, and takes pains to go over the major thinkers up to now, pretty systematically. Taleb by comparison wilfully flashes past things he assumes the reader knows, and goes whither he will. This book makes frequent reference to the "black swan" idea (and credits Taleb). But this book is more English and English school-like in tone and style, whereas Taleb is more Mediterranean, near-eastern, and ancient-epic. This one takes its time, colorfully enough, to see that you have a deep and wide background in its subject. It wanders around more capaciously, slipping into various stories of things unexpected. At moments it can seem a bit slack in the pacing. What it does for me is help me build my tool kit for (I'm already far down this path) a broad re-callibration of how I view and process and decide in my world. I see it as an antidote to the shared hallucination we (in USA) might now be awakening from -- the (relative) apparent certitudes of the mid- and later-20th century, and even (though it has been pretty well shaken lately) the 21st. I enjoy this one, alongside Taleb's works (which are maybe a more entertaining entry point to this probabilistic thinking, preferably in the order of their release), and also (if you are skewed toward an interest in finance as I am) this book's co-author Mervyn King's The End of Alchemy (also here on audible). End of Alchemy in a context of finance and banking gives a very elegant introduction to this same "radical uncertainty" idea, as explaining much of what finance does, whereas this one generalizes the idea to all our doings. This book certainly fits the unfolding era of COVID-19 like a glove, meanwhile giving me some degree of (relaxing?) intellectual distance from today's headlines, and more broad framework for considering it all, and making decisions (which are happening deeply and daily for me in real time as I write this, March 2020, and I see no end to this accelerated period of change). The narration here is sharp and effective.
Underneath, where's the beef? The authors are skeptical of a lot of quantitative modeling, and what they go for ("What is going on here?") might fit in risk management jargon as scenarios (though they stubbornly refuse to use the word). As a positive and novel view, it comes out a bit mushy. The concept of a "reference narrative" is useful, though how this departs from the (again essentially uncredited) concept of anchoring (in behavioral economics) is not clear. So, I didn't see anything strikingly new to me. I did benefit from its leisurely explorations around these themes.
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- Oscar Vestlie
- 03-25-22
good but long
I like the contents of the book but it could be a lot shorter.
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- Armand Jarri
- 08-18-20
Boring and repetitive.Should have hired an editor
This book extremely boring. Narration is monotonous. Author repetes the same satement over and over. Sometimes even using the same phrasing. Examples are long and winding ( history of the the PC, for example) that you forget the original premise. He should have hired an editor.
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1 person found this helpful