The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrated by:
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David Spiegelhalter
About this listen
Brought to you by Penguin.
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
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- Length: 5 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
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This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- By Louislocke on 10-27-24
By: Andrew Leigh
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Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- By: Kelly Clancy
- Narrated by: Patty Nieman
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
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Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- By Rony exantus on 01-06-25
By: Kelly Clancy
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Risk
- A User's Guide
- By: General Stanley McChrystal, Anna Butrico
- Narrated by: General Stanley McChrystal
- Length: 10 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat. From his first day at West Point, to his years in Afghanistan, to his efforts helping business leaders navigate a global pandemic, McChrystal has seen how individuals and organizations fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface by which it can be managed.
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Good nuggets however wants no risk
- By Tim Everist on 10-22-21
By: General Stanley McChrystal, and others
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The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Live in the Mystery of Life and Love It
- By: Dennis Merritt Jones
- Narrated by: Tim Andres Pabon
- Length: 6 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
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What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the listener to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment....The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity?
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love love love!!!
- By Tramani on 03-08-15
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Twelve Trees
- The Deep Roots of Our Future
- By: Daniel Lewis
- Narrated by: Kaleo Griffith
- Length: 9 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
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The world today is undergoing the most rapid environmental transformation in human history—from climate change to deforestation. Scientists, ethnobotanists, indigenous peoples, and collectives of all kinds are closely studying trees and their biology to understand how and why trees function individually and collectively in the ways they do. In Twelve Trees, Daniel Lewis, curator and historian at one of the world’s most renowned research libraries, travels the world to learn about these trees in their habitats.
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Disappointing
- By W. Benson on 10-23-24
By: Daniel Lewis
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All That Glitters
- A Story of Friendship, Fraud, and Fine Art
- By: Orlando Whitfield
- Narrated by: Orlando Whitfield
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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Orlando Whitfield and Inigo Philbrick met in 2006 at London’s Goldsmiths University where they became best friends. By 2007 they had started I&O Fine Art. Orlando would eventually set up his own gallery and watch as Inigo quickly immersed himself in a world of private jets and multimillion-dollar deals for major clients. Inigo seemed brilliant, but underneath the extravagant façade, his complicated financial schemes were unraveling. With debt, lawsuits, and court summonses piling up, Inigo went into a tailspin of lies and subterfuge.
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Gripping
- By Anonymous User on 09-01-24
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The Catalyst
- RNA and the Quest to Unlock Life's Deepest Secrets
- By: Thomas R. Cech
- Narrated by: Joshua Saxon
- Length: 6 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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A gripping journey of discovery, The Catalyst moves from the early experiments that first hinted at RNA's spectacular powers, to Cech's own paradigm-shifting finding that it can catalyze cellular reactions, to the cutting-edge biotechnologies poised to reshape our health.
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a discredit to women scientists everywhere
- By Mom on 07-31-24
By: Thomas R. Cech
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The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 9 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- By Tom on 11-29-19
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Impossible Monsters
- Dinosaurs, Darwin, and the Battle Between Science and Religion
- By: Michael Taylor
- Narrated by: Michael Langan
- Length: 15 hrs
- Unabridged
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Impossible Monsters reveals the central role of dinosaurs and their discovery in toppling traditional religious authority, and in changing perceptions about the Bible, history, and mankind's place in the world.
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Repetitive and not that interesting
- By Michael on 09-09-24
By: Michael Taylor
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How Tyrants Fall
- And How Nations Survive
- By: Marcel Dirsus
- Narrated by: Richard Burnip
- Length: 8 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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Meeting with a revolutionary (codename 'Satan') who risked Stasi capture to undermine an oppressive regime, an American-Gambian activist who plotted to liberate his homeland on breaks during his construction job and the unapologetic former leader of a Burundian rebel group which carried out a massacre, internationally renowned security expert and political scientist Dr Marcel Dirsus draws on extensive field research and personal interviews with coup leaders, rebels and soldiers to examine the workings and malfunctions of tyrants.
By: Marcel Dirsus
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The Whole Story
- Adventures in Love, Life, and Capitalism
- By: John Mackey
- Narrated by: Adam Barr, John Mackey
- Length: 14 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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Whole Foods Market's cofounder and CEO for forty-four years, John Mackey offers an intimate and provocative account of the rise of this iconic company and the personal and spiritual journey that inspired its remarkable impact.
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Uplifting, inspiring, and educational.
- By Court Rye on 10-27-24
By: John Mackey
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The Power and the Money
- The Epic Clashes Between Commanders in Chief and Titans of Industry
- By: Tevi Troy
- Narrated by: Timothy Andrés Pabon
- Length: 12 hrs and 8 mins
- Unabridged
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Acclaimed presidential historian Tevi Troy takes listeners on a riveting journey through the biggest battles between CEOs and the nation’s commander in chief. He unearths the untold stories—both political and personal—that have shaped America. The Power and the Money shows how some of the nation’s most important CEOs forged (and fumbled) relationships with the president, revealing an intricate web of power, where CEOs need presidents, and presidents need CEOs. Troy shows how each must step carefully—or risk unpredictable costs and collateral damage.
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Completely disappointing
- By Amazon Customer on 11-29-24
By: Tevi Troy
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The 5 Principles of Human Performance
- A Contemporary Updateof the Building Blocks of Human Performance for the New View of Safety
- By: Todd E. Conklin PhD
- Narrated by: Todd Conklin
- Length: 3 hrs and 44 mins
- Unabridged
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Conklin’s audiobook is an interesting and informal discussion with the listener about the five principles of human performance; principle by principle, section by section. These five theories about how humans perform in organizations are principles, the building blocks of human performance, through which we have established a new way to think about safety and reliability in our worlds...and changing the way we think about work is a vital step toward improvement.
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Bien (that's French)
- By Rekaughn on 03-27-19
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- By: Haim Shapira
- Narrated by: Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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World on the Brink
- How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century
- By: Dmitri Alperovitch, Garrett M. Graff - contributor
- Narrated by: Will Collyer
- Length: 14 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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A leading national security expert, who publicly predicted Vladimir Putin's intention to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine months before it took place, lays out the case for why China's Xi Jinping is preparing to conquer Taiwan in the coming years and the dire stakes for America and the whole world if he is not deterred.
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a must read book!
- By Val Lendaro on 06-02-24
By: Dmitri Alperovitch, and others
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Dark Wire
- The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever
- By: Joseph Cox
- Narrated by: Peter Ganim
- Length: 11 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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Beginning in 2018, a powerful app for secure communications, called Anom, began to take root among drug dealers and other criminals. It had extraordinary safeguards to keep out prying eyes--the power to quickly wipe data, voice-masking technology, and more. It was better than other apps popular among organized crime syndicates, except for one thing: it was secretly run by law enforcement. Over the next few years, the FBI, along with law enforcement partners in Australia and parts of Europe, got a front row seat to the global criminal underworld.
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Amazing story
- By Katie W. on 06-08-24
By: Joseph Cox
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The Year of Living Constitutionally
- One Man's Humble Quest to Follow the Constitution's Original Meaning
- By: A.J. Jacobs
- Narrated by: A.J. Jacobs
- Length: 9 hrs and 33 mins
- Unabridged
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Is the Constitution a living document that needs to evolve with the times? Or should we try to divine the original meaning that our Founding Fathers intended, and hew to that as strictly as possible, as present-day originalists suggest? In The Year of Living Constitutionally, A.J. Jacobs tries to get inside the minds of the Founding Fathers by living as closely as possible to the original meaning of the Constitution.
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Delightful!
- By BranWick on 07-14-24
By: A.J. Jacobs
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Cue the Sun!
- The Invention of Reality TV
- By: Emily Nussbaum
- Narrated by: Gabra Zackman
- Length: 15 hrs and 11 mins
- Unabridged
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Who invented reality television, the world’s most dangerous pop-culture genre? And why can’t we look away? In this revelatory, deeply reported account of the rise of “dirty documentary”—from its contentious roots in radio to the ascent of Donald Trump—Emily Nussbaum unearths the origin story of the genre that ate the world, as told through the lively voices of the people who built it. At once gimlet-eyed and empathetic, Cue the Sun! explores the morally charged, funny, and sometimes tragic consequences of the hunt for something real inside something fake.
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Weak, semi-unconnected stories
- By KDN on 07-20-24
By: Emily Nussbaum