The Improbability Principle
Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
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Narrated by:
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Paul Hodgson
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By:
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David J. Hand
About this listen
In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they’re commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month.
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: The laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand’s groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: What the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives - including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it’s in the world of business and finance or you’re merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
©2014 David J. Hand (P)2014 Macmillan AudioListeners also enjoyed...
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- Unabridged
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Over a storied career, Daniel C. Dennett has engaged questions about science and the workings of the mind. His answers have combined rigorous argument with strong empirical grounding. And a lot of fun. Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking offers seventy-seven of Dennett’s most successful “imagination-extenders and focus-holders” meant to guide you through some of life’s most treacherous subject matter: evolution, meaning, mind, and free will.
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Loved it, but some philosophy background needed.
- By LongerILiveLessIKnow on 11-14-13
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When Einstein Walked with Gödel
- Excursions to the Edge of Thought
- By: Jim Holt
- Narrated by: David Stifel
- Length: 15 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
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Does time exist? What is infinity? Why do mirrors reverse left and right but not up and down? In this scintillating collection, Holt explores the human mind, the cosmos, and the thinkers who’ve tried to encompass the latter with the former. With his trademark clarity and humor, Holt probes the mysteries of quantum mechanics, the quest for the foundations of mathematics, and the nature of logic and truth. Along the way, he offers intimate biographical sketches of celebrated and neglected thinkers, from the physicist Emmy Noether to the computing pioneer Alan Turing and the discoverer of fractals, Benoit Mandelbrot.
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A good overview of scientific theory
- By MJ Walters on 09-11-18
By: Jim Holt
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- By: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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A dissapointing debut
- By Peter on 04-14-19
By: Shane Parrish
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A Beginner’s Guide to Reality
- Exploring Our Everyday Adventures in Wonderland
- By: Jim Baggott
- Narrated by: Victor Bevine
- Length: 9 hrs and 16 mins
- Unabridged
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A unique fusion of philosophy and metaphysics set against the backdrop of contemporary culture. Have you ever wondered if the world is really there when you're not looking? We tend to take the reality of our world very much for granted. This book will lead you down the rabbit hole in search of something we can point to, hang our hats on, and say this is real.
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A real great listen on the nature of reality
- By Patrick Mabry, Jr. on 07-30-14
By: Jim Baggott
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The Big Picture
- On the Origins of Life, Meaning, and the Universe Itself
- By: Sean Carroll
- Narrated by: Sean Carroll
- Length: 17 hrs and 22 mins
- Unabridged
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Already internationally acclaimed for his elegant, lucid writing on the most challenging notions in modern physics, Sean Carroll is emerging as one of the greatest humanist thinkers of his generation as he brings his extraordinary intellect to bear not only on the Higgs boson and extra dimensions but now also on our deepest personal questions. Where are we? Who are we? Are our emotions, our beliefs, and our hopes and dreams ultimately meaningless out there in the void?
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ABSOLUTE MUST READ!
- By serine on 05-12-16
By: Sean Carroll
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What Is Real?
- The Unfinished Quest for the Meaning of Quantum Physics
- By: Adam Becker
- Narrated by: Greg Tremblay
- Length: 11 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Every physicist agrees quantum mechanics is among humanity's finest scientific achievements. But ask what it means, and the result will be a brawl. For a century, most physicists have followed Niels Bohr's Copenhagen interpretation and dismissed questions about the reality underlying quantum physics as meaningless. A mishmash of solipsism and poor reasoning, Copenhagen endured, as Bohr's students vigorously protected his legacy, and the physics community favored practical experiments over philosophical arguments.
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Good, "light" "read"... potential caveat below...
- By James S. on 03-31-18
By: Adam Becker
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Paradox
- The Nine Greatest Enigmas in Physics
- By: Jim Al-Khalili
- Narrated by: Matthew Waterson
- Length: 6 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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Throughout history, scientists have come up with theories and ideas that just don't seem to make sense. These we call paradoxes. The paradoxes Al-Khalili offers are drawn chiefly from physics and astronomy and represent those that have stumped some of the finest minds. With elegant explanations that bring the listener inside the mind of those who've developed them, Al-Khalili helps us to see that, in fact, paradoxes can be solved if seen from the right angle.
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Almost Useless
- By Michael on 06-19-19
By: Jim Al-Khalili
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- By: David Stipp
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 5 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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Good treatment of the subject
- By Kindle Customer on 04-09-18
By: David Stipp
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Spooky Action at a Distance
- The Phenomenon That Reimagines Space and Time-and What It Means for Black Holes, the Big Bang, and Theories of Everything
- By: George Musser
- Narrated by: William Hughes
- Length: 8 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
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What is space? It isn't a question that most of us normally stop to ask. Space is the venue of physics; it's where things exist, where they move and take shape. Yet over the past few decades, physicists have discovered a phenomenon that operates outside the confines of space and time. The phenomenon - the ability of one particle to affect another instantly across the vastness of space - appears to be almost magical.
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Rambling but Asks Good Questions
- By Michael on 12-19-15
By: George Musser
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Significant Figures
- The Lives and Work of Great Mathematicians
- By: Ian Stewart
- Narrated by: Roger Clark
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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In Significant Figures, acclaimed mathematician Ian Stewart introduces the visionaries of mathematics throughout history. Delving into the lives of twenty-five great mathematicians, Stewart examines the roles they played in creating, inventing, and discovering the mathematics we use today. Through these short biographies, we get acquainted with the history of mathematics.
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Beware
- By Anton Kurtz on 12-08-18
By: Ian Stewart
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Euclid's Window
- The Story of Geometry from Parallel Lines to Hyperspace
- By: Leonard Mlodinow
- Narrated by: Robert Blumenfeld
- Length: 8 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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Through Euclid's Window Leonard Mlodinow brilliantly and delightfully leads us on a journey through five revolutions in geometry, from the Greek concept of parallel lines to the latest notions of hyperspace. Here is an altogether new, refreshing, alternative history of math revealing how simple questions anyone might ask about space -- in the living room or in some other galaxy -- have been the hidden engine of the highest achievements in science and technology.
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Wow!
- By Eric on 08-13-10
By: Leonard Mlodinow
What listeners say about The Improbability Principle
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Dan Burt
- 11-22-17
Great Principle - Pretty Good Book
This book was highly repetitive. Not in content but in principle. It could have been a lot shorter, with the same effect.
That said, the book did a great job of highlighting the likely outcome of unlikely possibilities on a large scale.
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1 person found this helpful
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- atheous
- 09-18-15
Extremely tedious
Any additional comments?
This is the worst of the excellent probability/chance audiobooks I've got from Audible. It is more technical; perhaps a better fit for mathematicians or the more mathematically inclined.
Also, tables and figures are being very often referenced and they were not included with the audio version via .pdf file. Speaking of .pdf files, why are they not connected to and viewable by, the app?
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3 people found this helpful
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- Paul
- 06-30-21
interesting, fun and important
great book, but probably an easier read than a listen. the more our lives become dominated by the law of large numbers and stastics, the more important books like this one become. I am glad that I read it and I hope it has armed me better against misleading statistics, bad math, common mistakes and outright falsehoods. I do feel that I would have enjoyed this book more as a regular book though. It was expertly read, but if you don't work with numbers or statistics daily it might be harder for some to keep track of all the numbers and examples in your mind while the book is being read. Still, great book, good performance.
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- RAMON
- 04-24-20
Accessible Treatment of of difficultsubject
Probability principles are counterintuitive and difficult to explain and understand. This book does a good job of explains and using interesting examples and reenforing these examples. Some may find the print edition easier to follow.
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- J. C.
- 03-02-14
Really interesting and fun
This is an exciting book and a wonderful listen. There is a history of how people think about probability. The oldest known records are tables of outcomes in an ancient gambling game. You will love this book if you like being challenged and finding out why things are the way they are in science, math and the human mind. I didn't want it to end. I now have much more insight into probability than I did before. I definitely recommend this book. You will love it! The narration is excellent. This book is exciting and fun, I highly recommend it, especially if you like math, science, and psychology and want to know the reasons why things are the way they are in the universe. The author explains why miracles absolutely DO happen. Listen to find out why.
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7 people found this helpful
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- Yeoh Cheeweng
- 12-15-14
Debunking superstitions
What did you love best about The Improbability Principle?
Difficult mathematics of probability theory explained clearly in non-mathematical language.
What was the most compelling aspect of this narrative?
The different laws of improbability are explained convincingly that the impossible is plausible.
Have you listened to any of Paul Hodgson’s other performances before? How does this one compare?
No, not before. Paul's narrative is excellent, spoken with clarity and enthusiasm.
If you could give The Improbability Principle a new subtitle, what would it be?
Not that impossible
Any additional comments?
Better to listen to a chapter or two each time and not in its entirety (if you have that much of time). Needs reflection and slow digestion.
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4 people found this helpful
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- Daniel A. Demski
- 03-04-18
Solid principle, iffy details
Coincidences are everywhere, and this book has some good thoughts on why they're there and what it means. However, the principles the book argues for are at times very vague. Some vastly different things are counted as examples of the selection effect. Frequently the author claims two principles are "reinforcing one another" when they're not; a phenomenon can merely be classified as a case of either principle because there's overlap. (There are plenty of cases where the principles *would* reinforce one another. The author's just not careful about when this happens vs. doesn't.)
You'll also hear several times about the author's dice collection. It's relevant, sure, but he seems a little overly impressed with it.
Besides the core material, the book contains a lot of introductory-level information on probability, statistics, and the psychology of human bias and irrationality.
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- Burrill C. Leland
- 07-17-16
A book with many fine insights to keep in mind
Books like this would be better read, imo. Very hard to refer back to anything, as you might want to if the subject matter interests you, without you writing up your own extensive notes. Chapter titles would be nice!
Content-wise, I enjoyed the second half more than the first, as the subject matter became more sophisticated. A summary chapter would be nice. The narrator was good.
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- Sarp
- 03-02-17
Not meant to be audiobook; but, still...
Good story; gives a very unique perspective on what we regard to be "luck" or "chance" in our everyday lives;
BUT, this book was not meant to an audiobook -- buy the actual book, if you can. Why?
- Too many references to "chart / table so and so", "appendix x, y,z", etc.
- Depending on the context, frequent readouts of long formulas and numbers (even the Pi!!)
It all requires a high level of concentration for "listening" (thanks, Audible app, for the instant 10/20/30 sec rewind feature:))
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- atejedor
- 07-24-15
Great book
I have really enjoyed this book. Nice approach to the problem of the unlikely. I totally recommend it
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